ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Pressure looks like it has dropped at least 2 mb per the last pass, waiting for the VDM to confirm.

1707N 08302W 8433 01395 9887 +202 +144 245014 016 013 000 03

[Dave]

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 16

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 19:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 18
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 16

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 19Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 17.1N 83.0W
Location: 186 miles (299 km) to the SW (215°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 045 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (29.21 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 24.1°C (75.4°F) 325° (from the NW) 2 knots (2 mph)
1000mb -102m (-335 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 585m (1,919 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 85° (from the E) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 1,322m (4,337 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 16.3°C (61.3°F) 175° (from the S) 5 knots (6 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 19:27Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 17.14N 83.03W
Splash Time: 19:29Z

Release Location: 17.14N 83.03W View map)
Release Time: 19:27:38Z

Splash Location: 17.14N 83.03W (
Splash Time: 19:29:29Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 65° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 100° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 988mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 0° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 0 knots (0 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
989mb (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 24.1°C (75.4°F)
908mb 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.9°C (69.6°F)
850mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 16.3°C (61.3°F)
843mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 14.9°C (58.8°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (Surface) 325° (from the NW) 2 knots (2 mph)
971mb 90° (from the E) 1 knots (1 mph)
913mb 85° (from the E) 10 knots (12 mph)
885mb 120° (from the ESE) 3 knots (3 mph)
855mb 165° (from the SSE) 7 knots (8 mph)
843mb 200° (from the SSW) 4 knots (5 mph)


---



[cycloneye]

It barely moved from the first pass to the second one.

[SouthDadeFish]

Dropsonde gave 989mb on the surface. Seems to have remained stationary since last fix.

[KWT]

Wouldn't surprise me if indeed the pressure is dropping like a rock right now, pattern looks pretty condusive for some fast, if not rapid strengthening.

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 241945
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 24/19:27:40Z
B. 17 deg 08 min N
083 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1329 m
D. 60 kt
E. 010 deg 10 nm
F. 093 deg 67 kt
G. 010 deg 10 nm
H. EXTRAP 989 mb
I. 15 C / 1521 m
J. 21 C / 1520 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E32/20/16
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0218A RINA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 68 KT NW QUAD 17:37:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Very small and compact storm:

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 14

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 19:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 19:27:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°08'N 83°02'W (17.1333N 83.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 185 miles (298 km) to the SW (216°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,329m (4,360ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 93° at 67kts (From the E at ~ 77.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 320° to 140° (NW to SE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:37:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241946
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 33 20111024
193700 1647N 08322W 8436 01521 0053 +161 +141 314049 050 040 000 03
193730 1646N 08324W 8427 01533 0058 +160 +139 313045 047 039 001 03
193800 1645N 08325W 8430 01532 0059 +163 +137 315043 045 039 000 03
193830 1644N 08326W 8433 01532 0066 +155 +141 321043 045 040 003 03
193900 1643N 08327W 8437 01528 0072 +146 //// 317045 046 043 013 05
193930 1642N 08328W 8426 01542 0071 +153 +144 308047 051 061 045 03
194000 1641N 08330W 8443 01520 0073 +143 //// 303039 040 059 053 05
194030 1640N 08331W 8418 01550 //// +132 //// 302040 043 050 035 05
194100 1639N 08332W 8423 01549 0081 +140 //// 304042 044 045 008 01
194130 1637N 08333W 8433 01541 0071 +163 +156 310042 043 045 002 03
194200 1636N 08334W 8435 01538 0071 +162 //// 310041 042 046 001 05
194230 1635N 08335W 8424 01549 0076 +159 +141 313042 042 046 000 00
194300 1634N 08337W 8433 01544 0079 +157 +143 313042 043 045 000 03
194330 1633N 08338W 8427 01551 0080 +159 +143 312042 043 046 000 03
194400 1632N 08339W 8437 01543 0082 +160 +141 310041 042 046 000 03
194430 1631N 08340W 8428 01554 0085 +159 +139 311040 041 045 000 03
194500 1630N 08341W 8431 01554 0087 +159 +138 311038 040 045 000 03
194530 1629N 08342W 8428 01558 0088 +159 +135 313035 036 044 000 03
194600 1627N 08344W 8430 01556 0087 +162 +129 313035 035 043 000 03
194630 1626N 08345W 8430 01555 0087 +165 +121 314035 036 044 000 03
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

In my opinion the most important piece of info that just came in from the VDM is that we now have an almost completely closed off eyewall. The first VDM gave no eye characteristics and now the most recent VDM said Rina has an elliptical eye that is open on the SW side. Once this closes off then I believe we will see some serious bombing out.

[psyclone]

the cyclone is probably still moving...recon may have just fixed a different spot in the center giving the appearance that it has become stationary.

[Dave]

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 241744
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
144 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH BROAD RIDGING BUILDING IN. THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SE US COASTLINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH RIDGING BECOMING MORE STACKED THROUGH MID WEEK AND DRY AIR
LINGERING OVER THE AREA...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BEGIN RETURNING INTO
THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE
SURGE IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW TS RINA DEVELOPS AND TRACKS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR
LEE COUNTY AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW BUT GRADUALLY WARMING TO
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE
PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE WESTWARD NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO FLORIDA. THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO VARY BETWEEN MODELS AND BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS...BUT APPEARS AT THIS TIME IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE OTHER FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF RINA.
MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT MOST DO INDICATE SOME
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING SOME
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ON BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241956
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 34 20111024
194700 1625N 08346W 8427 01559 0090 +160 +128 318036 037 044 000 03
194730 1624N 08347W 8430 01559 0094 +157 +131 316038 040 045 001 00
194800 1623N 08348W 8433 01555 0096 +154 +135 311043 046 043 003 00
194830 1622N 08350W 8433 01555 0098 +151 +139 312046 046 044 001 00
194900 1621N 08351W 8428 01565 0099 +151 +140 309045 046 046 004 00
194930 1620N 08352W 8430 01561 0100 +150 +140 302042 045 045 004 00
195000 1618N 08353W 8430 01563 0101 +152 +140 302040 040 045 006 00
195030 1617N 08354W 8426 01568 0100 +153 +140 304034 035 044 006 00
195100 1616N 08355W 8434 01559 0103 +153 +132 308027 029 045 007 00
195130 1615N 08356W 8434 01561 0105 +152 +137 310030 030 044 010 00
195200 1614N 08358W 8429 01568 0116 +136 //// 306031 031 043 010 01
195230 1613N 08359W 8426 01571 0108 +148 +140 303034 036 043 008 00
195300 1612N 08400W 8432 01567 0116 +138 //// 307040 041 043 008 01
195330 1611N 08401W 8427 01572 0121 +134 //// 306040 041 042 006 01
195400 1610N 08402W 8430 01570 0112 +147 +138 303041 043 041 003 00
195430 1609N 08403W 8429 01572 0112 +150 +135 300040 042 040 003 00
195500 1608N 08405W 8429 01572 0110 +150 +133 303038 038 038 003 00
195530 1606N 08406W 8432 01570 0112 +153 +131 305039 040 038 002 03
195600 1605N 08406W 8417 01590 0116 +150 +131 304040 040 /// /// 03
195630 1604N 08404W 8435 01566 0111 +151 +129 301040 040 040 001 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 241958
97779 19554 20161 84100 15200 31039 15139 /2502
42940
RMK AF306 0218A RINA OB 17
SWS = 37 KTS
SW EXIT PT
;

[wxman57]

The key is going to be that trof/front digging into the southeast on Fri/Sat. GFS and Euro are pretty close with it, driving the front to southern Florida by Saturday morning. Canadian is even faster with the front. That's why the Canadian drives it westward into the Yucatan - high pressure builds in behind the front and forces it west and inland. I wouldn't turn my back on Rina if I lived in the southern FL peninsula, but I wouldn't get TOO concerned just yet.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 242006
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 35 20111024
195700 1603N 08402W 8431 01571 0110 +154 +127 300040 040 041 001 00
195730 1602N 08401W 8429 01572 0111 +155 +126 300037 038 042 000 03
195800 1601N 08359W 8430 01569 0107 +158 +128 303035 036 043 000 03
195830 1600N 08357W 8429 01572 0107 +160 +127 303036 036 043 001 00
195900 1559N 08355W 8428 01573 0107 +160 +127 303037 037 043 000 00
195930 1559N 08353W 8430 01569 0105 +160 +128 303037 037 042 002 03
200000 1558N 08351W 8432 01567 0103 +163 +128 301037 038 042 000 03
200030 1557N 08350W 8429 01569 0104 +160 +128 302039 040 041 000 03
200100 1557N 08350W 8429 01569 0103 +160 +127 301040 040 041 000 03
200130 1557N 08350W 8429 01569 0103 +162 +127 299041 042 042 001 00
200200 1555N 08344W 8429 01568 0101 +166 +127 301035 038 043 000 03
200230 1554N 08342W 8431 01566 0096 +170 +126 300033 034 044 001 03
200300 1554N 08340W 8429 01568 0095 +173 +125 299032 032 045 000 00
200330 1553N 08338W 8432 01566 0096 +170 +126 301033 033 043 000 00
200400 1552N 08336W 8430 01565 0096 +170 +126 302034 035 043 000 03
200430 1552N 08335W 8429 01568 0094 +174 +126 299035 035 044 000 03
200500 1551N 08333W 8429 01567 0093 +173 +126 298038 039 043 001 03
200530 1550N 08331W 8429 01566 0092 +173 +127 298038 039 043 000 03
200600 1549N 08329W 8432 01564 0093 +173 +126 294036 038 044 001 03
200630 1549N 08327W 8433 01564 0094 +173 +124 295033 034 042 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Rina in historical context by Dr Jeff Masters

Rina in historical context
Rina intensified into a hurricane just 21 hours after the first advisory was issued for it as a tropical depression. This is the second fastest such intensification since record keeping began in 1851. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 holds the Atlantic record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours. Rina's formation brings this year's tally of hurricanes to six, which is average for an Atlantic hurricane season. The number of named storms this season is now seventeen, making it the 7th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005, 1933, 1995, 1887, 2010, and 1969 had more named storms. However, 2011 has had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. Only 35% of this year's named storms have made it to hurricane strength, and normally 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for this very unusual occurrence.