ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I thought the same thing, would the government try to disrupt it? Did they have a contingency plan on standbye after katrina?

But I dont think seeding had any impact at all.

I could be very wrong. We shall see.


Fyi, The 1960's experiment were fairly ineffective


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Stormfury

[Cryomaniac]

Anybody else watching the lauderdale-by-the-sea webcam and watching those 3 yahoos swimming? I hope they have at least surfboards. Here comes the lifeguards....

I'm reminded of the guy with the bear costume during Ike.

[MBismyPlayground]

Do not know about anywhere else but MB area has a tropical storm watch...Emergency management is compiling lists of names of people who need to get onto the resort property in case... Always be prepared just in case.

Ok gang quick question. With the westward shift of the track and now the entire SE coast of NC inside the radii of the hurricane force winds, even on the west side, why are there no hurricane watches extended to the SC/NC border at least? 1 west wobble from the projected path and the SC/NC border has the eye. Not making much sense.

I heard on the weather channel a little while ago that watches/warnings (whichever are needed) will be going up in the next update for the mid-atlantic states. (Not exactly sure which states that encompasses) Probably tropical storm watches and warnings for some and hurricanes watches and warnings for others. Just stay tuned for the next update in within the next hour or two.

[hurricaneCW]

Before we talk about NYC inundation and $100 billion damages we should note that there is a greater than average uncertainty in the track and especially in the landfall point. Traditionally, hurricanes that have hit LI while travelling NNE do not deal heavy damage to NYC proper because of the angle of the coastline. The synoptic setup here does not favor a N or NNW turn that could bring this straight up the Hudson. And I think emergency managers are going to think very hard before issuing a evac order to the biggest city in the U.S...not exactly the smartest thing to do before modeling stabilizes on a devastating NYC hit.

Actually, I think the track confidence is greater than average here. Irene has already made the northward turn, the hardest part of the track to determine where it will occur from several days ago. Model agreement is outstanding now. We almost never see such a tight clustering this far out. The only real question now is precisely where on LI the center will cross the coast. Model trends are toward the western part of the Island, a worst case scenario.

Those people on LI are used to what they think are hurricane hits but are actually grazing events. This is the real thing.

Do you think the center will landfall on NJ before LI.

[TropicalWXMA]

I thought the same thing, would the government try to disrupt it? Did they have a contingency plan on standbye after katrina?

But I dont think seeding had any impact at all.

I could be very wrong. We shall see.


Fyi, The 1960's experiment were fairly ineffective


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Stormfury

All I will say is this, if you try and disrupt/change/modify Mother Nature, she will win EVERY time.

[Dave]

762
URNT15 KNHC 251835
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 19 20110825
182530 2756N 07727W 6967 03058 9956 +087 +030 091065 066 056 007 00
182600 2756N 07729W 6968 03059 9954 +090 +031 084068 069 056 006 00
182630 2756N 07732W 6968 03059 9962 +084 +031 081069 069 055 008 00
182700 2757N 07735W 6968 03061 9954 +090 +032 081068 068 055 005 00
182730 2757N 07737W 6962 03065 9956 +088 +032 083069 070 055 003 00
182800 2757N 07740W 6966 03060 9964 +083 +033 083070 073 055 010 00
182830 2757N 07742W 6971 03059 9961 +088 +033 084065 066 060 006 00
182900 2758N 07745W 6953 03076 9965 +082 +033 086070 073 062 006 00
182930 2758N 07748W 6969 03064 9979 +073 +034 086073 077 060 016 00
183000 2758N 07750W 6972 03055 9983 +068 +033 085077 079 061 021 00
183030 2758N 07753W 6977 03054 9988 +067 +032 077080 081 061 016 00
183100 2758N 07756W 6969 03060 9987 +066 +033 074084 090 060 024 00
183130 2759N 07759W 6961 03077 9985 +071 +032 072075 076 057 017 00
183200 2759N 07801W 6965 03075 9998 +066 +032 063083 084 053 015 00
183230 2759N 07804W 6971 03072 0005 +065 +031 060081 082 051 015 00
183300 2759N 07806W 6975 03073 0008 +064 +031 056075 077 052 018 00
183330 2759N 07809W 6961 03090 0012 +063 +031 056071 073 052 017 00
183400 2800N 07811W 6965 03087 0010 +068 +030 060069 070 051 008 00
183430 2800N 07814W 6970 03086 9999 +081 +030 064070 071 050 006 00
183500 2800N 07816W 6970 03092 9999 +084 +029 065072 073 048 006 00
$$
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[dolebot_Broward_NW]

somehow doubleposted

[ozonepete]

It looks like the ERC is almost complete and she is about to go into another strenghtening phase. Even as she weakens around the NYC area...the stronger she gets now, the more water she pushes and that will not go down as we saw with Katrina, Ivan and Ike.

That is THE most important point that a lot of people up here are not getting. I was astounded by how much and how FAR AHEAD those 3 storms pushed that much water.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I thought the same thing, would the government try to disrupt it? Did they have a contingency plan on standbye after katrina?

But I dont think seeding had any impact at all.

I could be very wrong. We shall see.


Fyi, The 1960's experiment were fairly ineffective


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Stormfury

All I will say is this, if you try and disrupt/change/modify Mother Nature, she will win EVERY time.

Not neccessarily,

Actually I read a paper that if you had large Generating stations and an array of large fans and dispersal projectiles. You could disrupt the entire Cape Verde storm formation process completely via deepening and kicking up enough of the Sarahan air dust layer. The problem was cost. And of course destruction of the agriculture economy of central america. And what about the storms that dont form off africa? Irene didnt form off africa. Too many variables.


Anyway, its interesting and deserves its own thread.

[CrazyC83]

Ok gang quick question. With the westward shift of the track and now the entire SE coast of NC inside the radii of the hurricane force winds, even on the west side, why are there no hurricane watches extended to the SC/NC border at least? 1 west wobble from the projected path and the SC/NC border has the eye. Not making much sense.

I heard on the weather channel a little while ago that watches/warnings (whichever are needed) will be going up in the next update for the mid-atlantic states. (Not exactly sure which states that encompasses) Probably tropical storm watches and warnings for some and hurricanes watches and warnings for others. Just stay tuned for the next update in within the next hour or two.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

MY GUESS for upcoming watches and warnings looking at the probabilities by point:

Hurricane Warning

Cape Fear, NC to Duck, NC
Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound

Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning

Murrells Inlet, SC to Cape Fear, NC

Hurricane Watch

Duck, NC to Cape Henlopen, DE
Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point

Tropical Storm Warning

Mouth of Savannah River to Murrells Inlet, SC

Tropical Storm Watch

Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point to Pooles Island
Tidal Potomac south of Indian Head

[wxmann_91]

Actually, I think the track confidence is greater than average here. Irene has already made the northward turn, the hardest part of the track to determine where it will occur from several days ago. Model agreement is outstanding now. We almost never see such a tight clustering this far out. The only real question now is precisely where on LI the center will cross the coast. Model trends are toward the western part of the Island, a worst case scenario.

Those people on LI are used to what they think are hurricane hits but are actually grazing events. This is the real thing.

I think that there is a high probability of Irene tracking somewhere in the cone as it is now, unlike earlier when it had all those center reformations. However, specifically where in the cone is still up in the air... without a big trough to steer Irene it will essentially boil down to timing and small, poorly sampled shortwaves to determine whether this thing hooks more N or stays on a NNE/NE trajectory. And small differences could make the difference between NC and MA because of the shape of the coastline... none are out of the play for a landfall yet.

I agree that areas in LI need to treat this extremely seriously... all I'm saying is we can't tell if this will be the ultimate storm for NYC yet.

[southerngale]

Dr. Rick Knabb:
As you might have seen on TV this morning, I'm most concerned about the large size of Hurricane Irene. It means several things, none of which are good: it will be slower to weaken (as compared to a smaller hurricane) as it moves up the east coast, it will be a greater ocean wave and storm surge generator (a la Ike 2008, Igor 2010, etc.), and the winds and rains will last longer at any individual location, increasing risk of wind damage and flash floods.

[Dave]

[maxintensity]

Continuous eyewall replacement cycle that was induced 72 hours ago is ongoing this afternoon. I posted about this in the recon discussion thread when the first double wind maximum occured. I have now found a triple wind maximum. The cycle of major hurricanes threatening US landfall having continuous eyewall replacement cycles as they approach the US continues. Ivan Dennis Ike Rita Katrina. Add Irene. I fully expect this will never have a beautiful clear eye show up on vis or infrared. It's done in my opinion due to a triple wind maximum that will take forever and forever to work itself out. I'll eat my crow well done if need be, this is what I think.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Ok gang quick question. With the westward shift of the track and now the entire SE coast of NC inside the radii of the hurricane force winds, even on the west side, why are there no hurricane watches extended to the SC/NC border at least? 1 west wobble from the projected path and the SC/NC border has the eye. Not making much sense.

I only show hurricane force winds from about Wilmington northward. Winds near the SC border would be in the 45-55 mph range (sustained). Hurricane force winds reach the NC coast around 5PM EDT on Saturday.

I was going by the adjusted wind field for the Saturday plot on this map. http://www.stormpulse.com/

[hurricaneCW]

It looks like the ERC is almost complete and she is about to go into another strenghtening phase. Even as she weakens around the NYC area...the stronger she gets now, the more water she pushes and that will not go down as we saw with Katrina, Ivan and Ike.

That is THE most important point that a lot of people up here are not getting. I was astounded by how much and how FAR AHEAD those 3 storms pushed that much water.

IKE really stunned me, only a Cat 2 at landfall and it delivered a massive surge, Katrina hit as a 3 but pretty much brought Cat 5 surge, it's all about the storm's size and built up energy that gets released even if the storm is not technically very strong. I'm not sure how large Ike was though compared to how big Irene is now.

[CrazyC83]

Continuous eyewall replacement cycle that was induced 72 hours ago is ongoing this afternoon. I posted about this in the recon discussion thread when the first double wind maximum occured. I have now found a triple wind maximum. The cycle of major hurricanes threatening US landfall having continuous eyewall replacement cycles as they approach the US continues. Ivan Dennis Ike Rita Katrina. Add Irene. I fully expect this will never have a beautiful clear eye show up on vis or infrared. It's done in my opinion due to a triple wind maximum that will take forever and forever to work itself out. I'll eat my crow well done if need be, this is what I think.

I agree, this might have peaked in intensity, but really increases the danger.

How far WEST of the eye of Ike at landfall was there significant damage?

[ozonepete]

Before we talk about NYC inundation and $100 billion damages we should note that there is a greater than average uncertainty in the track and especially in the landfall point. Traditionally, hurricanes that have hit LI while travelling NNE do not deal heavy damage to NYC proper because of the angle of the coastline. The synoptic setup here does not favor a N or NNW turn that could bring this straight up the Hudson. And I think emergency managers are going to think very hard before issuing a evac order to the biggest city in the U.S...not exactly the smartest thing to do before modeling stabilizes on a devastating NYC hit.

Where are you getting your info? It has much less to do with the angle than the proximity of the eye and the strength/size of the hurricane. Almost all of the models have come into an averaged path that is very close to NYC, much closer than 1938, 1944 or Gloria or Donna. The synoptic setup is discussed by the NHC and the HPC and they explicitly said that setup will keep the center along the coast and right over NYC.

Also, they will never evac NYC and don't have plans to - they will only evac those in flood zones near the water and are opening shelters tomorrow.

[TheBurn]

Avi WX IR

[Dave]

528
URNT15 KNHC 251845
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 20 20110825
183530 2800N 07819W 6967 03098 9999 +088 +029 061073 074 049 006 00
183600 2800N 07821W 6966 03099 0002 +086 +029 059076 077 048 005 00
183630 2801N 07824W 6964 03104 9998 +092 +029 062072 074 049 004 00
183700 2801N 07827W 6970 03099 9994 +096 +030 066068 068 047 005 00
183730 2801N 07829W 6964 03106 9993 +098 +030 066068 070 047 002 00
183800 2801N 07832W 6969 03101 0002 +091 +031 065066 067 047 004 00
183830 2801N 07834W 6964 03110 0010 +087 +030 063068 070 048 005 00
183900 2802N 07837W 6967 03109 0010 +090 +031 060061 063 048 003 00
183930 2802N 07839W 6967 03110 0013 +088 +031 058059 060 047 002 00
184000 2802N 07842W 6969 03111 0018 +087 +031 057054 056 047 001 00
184030 2802N 07844W 6966 03115 0016 +088 +031 057049 050 046 005 00
184100 2802N 07846W 6969 03111 0012 +091 +031 058044 044 045 007 00
184130 2803N 07849W 6967 03115 0012 +093 +031 054042 044 046 008 00
184200 2803N 07851W 6966 03117 0008 +096 +031 051040 042 046 009 03
184230 2802N 07853W 6964 03118 0004 +100 +031 046037 038 /// /// 03
184300 2800N 07852W 6963 03120 0006 +098 +032 049038 038 046 006 03
184330 2759N 07851W 6970 03112 0005 +100 +032 054040 041 046 006 00
184400 2758N 07849W 6968 03112 0006 +098 +031 052041 042 046 005 00
184430 2757N 07848W 6967 03114 0015 +090 +031 050045 047 046 001 00
184500 2755N 07846W 6967 03111 0014 +086 +031 053053 056 046 001 00
$$
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