ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[brunota2003]

VDM:

000
URNT12 KNHC 040606
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 04/05:41:50Z
B. 16 deg 59 min N
071 deg 13 min W
C. 850 mb 1470 m
D. 43 kt
E. 081 deg 76 nm
F. 130 deg 43 kt
G. 083 deg 97 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 15 C / 1525 m
J. 15 C / 1538 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1005A EMILY OB 04
MAX FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 05:13:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 073 / 43 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

Basically saying...disorganized system still. No real surprise. Off to bed for me, y'all have fun with RECON overnight!

[stormhunter7]

removed... double post! nite yall!

[SouthFloridawx]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040611
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 15 20110804
060200 1613N 07201W 8426 01561 0083 +167 +166 324020 021 006 001 00
060230 1612N 07202W 8425 01562 0084 +164 //// 325020 020 004 001 01
060300 1611N 07203W 8430 01556 0083 +168 //// 324020 021 004 000 01
060330 1610N 07204W 8431 01557 0083 +169 +168 323017 018 002 001 00
060400 1609N 07206W 8429 01561 0084 +170 +170 324016 017 001 001 03
060430 1607N 07207W 8430 01562 0085 +170 //// 325016 017 000 001 05
060500 1606N 07208W 8428 01562 0086 +169 //// 326015 016 000 001 05
060530 1605N 07209W 8429 01559 0085 +170 //// 331016 016 000 000 01
060600 1604N 07210W 8428 01562 0081 +175 +174 329013 015 000 001 03
060630 1602N 07212W 8429 01561 0082 +175 +175 330013 013 000 000 03
060700 1601N 07213W 8429 01562 0079 +178 +176 328012 012 000 000 00
060730 1600N 07214W 8429 01562 0079 +179 +177 327012 012 000 000 03
060800 1559N 07215W 8429 01562 0077 +182 +178 322011 012 000 000 03
060830 1558N 07217W 8430 01562 0074 +185 +180 329010 011 001 001 03
060900 1556N 07218W 8430 01562 0076 +185 +181 337012 012 000 000 03
060930 1555N 07218W 8430 01559 0074 +185 +183 327011 012 /// /// 03
061000 1554N 07217W 8428 01564 0076 +181 //// 317005 007 /// /// 05
061030 1554N 07215W 8428 01563 0075 +184 //// 296002 003 000 001 05
061100 1554N 07214W 8430 01562 0072 +188 +188 283003 003 000 000 03
061130 1554N 07212W 8428 01563 0070 +190 +188 274003 003 000 000 03
$$
;

[SouthFloridawx]

[BigA]

Disorganized, per usual, but at least now the center is colocated with the deepest convection, which gives the chance for additional organization. I'm not sure how long the colocation will last, though.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040621
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 16 20110804
061200 1554N 07210W 8430 01561 0072 +189 //// 258003 003 000 002 05
061230 1554N 07208W 8429 01561 0075 +184 //// 260003 003 000 001 05
061300 1554N 07207W 8429 01562 0077 +182 //// 284004 005 000 000 05
061330 1554N 07205W 8428 01563 0078 +181 //// 289005 006 000 000 05
061400 1554N 07203W 8429 01564 0079 +180 //// 263003 004 000 001 05
061430 1554N 07201W 8429 01564 0078 +183 //// 217005 007 000 001 05
061500 1554N 07200W 8428 01565 0075 +190 +187 220006 006 000 000 03
061530 1554N 07158W 8429 01564 0076 +186 //// 235006 006 000 001 01
061600 1554N 07156W 8429 01564 0076 +185 //// 248005 006 000 000 05
061630 1554N 07154W 8431 01562 0076 +185 //// 226006 007 000 001 05
061700 1554N 07153W 8428 01564 0075 +185 //// 240007 008 001 001 01
061730 1554N 07151W 8429 01563 0076 +184 //// 242007 007 001 000 01
061800 1554N 07149W 8428 01563 0081 +176 //// 263006 006 001 000 01
061830 1554N 07147W 8430 01562 0081 +175 //// 261007 008 000 001 01
061900 1554N 07145W 8430 01562 0084 +175 //// 257009 009 001 001 01
061930 1554N 07144W 8429 01563 0083 +175 //// 261009 009 002 000 01
062000 1554N 07142W 8429 01563 0083 +175 //// 258009 009 003 000 01
062030 1554N 07140W 8429 01562 0083 +171 //// 253010 010 003 000 05
062100 1554N 07138W 8429 01562 0086 +170 //// 253011 011 003 000 01
062130 1554N 07136W 8430 01561 0087 +169 //// 247012 013 004 001 01
$$
;

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

I can go till about 3-330. Anyone want to take over then?

[SouthFloridawx]

Shear is relaxing. Would explain the convection over the center.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Image of all vortex messages as of 8/4 at 6Z:

[SouthFloridawx]

Outflow regime seems to be looking a bit better for Emily as well.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040631
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 17 20110804
062200 1554N 07134W 8429 01562 0083 +170 //// 236013 014 006 000 01
062230 1554N 07133W 8319 01660 0071 +161 //// 238014 015 008 000 01
062300 1554N 07131W 8098 01895 //// +151 //// 255014 014 012 000 01
062330 1554N 07131W 8098 01895 //// +137 //// 239016 018 012 000 01
062400 1554N 07127W 7655 02376 //// +129 //// 225023 024 013 000 01
062430 1554N 07125W 7452 02602 //// +121 //// 221022 023 013 000 01
062500 1554N 07123W 7256 02826 //// +114 //// 216022 023 013 000 01
062530 1554N 07121W 7072 03041 //// +104 //// 223025 026 013 002 01
062600 1554N 07119W 6971 03169 //// +086 //// 229027 028 015 002 01
062630 1554N 07117W 6967 03182 //// +076 //// 219025 027 015 017 05
062700 1554N 07115W 6955 03192 //// +056 //// 204030 033 035 017 01
062730 1554N 07113W 6972 03171 //// +075 //// 199029 030 036 013 01
062800 1555N 07111W 6970 03173 //// +067 //// 210028 029 031 012 01
062830 1555N 07109W 6978 03164 //// +085 //// 224028 028 037 011 01
062900 1555N 07107W 6963 03186 //// +060 //// 217025 027 028 023 05
062930 1555N 07105W 6966 03173 //// +055 //// 217029 031 033 010 01
063000 1555N 07103W 6960 03186 //// +067 //// 213031 033 037 010 01
063030 1555N 07101W 6964 03181 //// +059 //// 195032 037 033 019 01
063100 1555N 07059W 6951 03199 //// +062 //// 195026 028 035 015 05
063130 1555N 07057W 6963 03179 //// +074 //// 207026 027 027 007 01
$$
;

[SouthFloridawx]

[Kohlecane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
definitely showing a WNW movement when you play this on the loop rather than the rock

[SouthFloridawx]

Trough axis is pulling away gradually as well.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
definitely showing a WNW movement when you play this on the loop rather than the rock

It is 280 since 11.

[TwisterFanatic]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
definitely showing a WNW movement when you play this on the loop rather than the rock

Still looks 280-ish to me.

[SouthFloridawx]

Thu Aug 4 02:34:19 EDT 2011
WHXX01 KWBC 040628

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0628 UTC THU AUG 4 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILY (AL052011) 20110804 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110804 0600 110804 1800 110805 0600 110805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 71.2W 18.7N 74.0W 19.8N 76.1W 21.0N 78.2W
BAMD 17.0N 71.2W 18.1N 73.0W 19.2N 74.7W 20.1N 76.3W
BAMM 17.0N 71.2W 18.2N 73.4W 19.2N 75.3W 20.1N 77.2W
LBAR 17.0N 71.2W 18.0N 72.3W 19.4N 73.7W 20.7N 75.2W
SHIP 45KTS 49KTS 53KTS 56KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 52KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110806 0600 110807 0600 110808 0600 110809 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 79.9W 24.2N 82.9W 26.1N 84.2W 27.2N 84.0W
BAMD 20.9N 78.0W 22.4N 81.5W 23.8N 84.6W 25.2N 86.8W
BAMM 21.0N 78.9W 22.8N 82.3W 24.4N 84.7W 25.7N 86.1W
LBAR 22.1N 76.5W 25.0N 78.9W 27.5N 79.3W 29.2N 76.2W
SHIP 59KTS 60KTS 58KTS 55KTS
DSHP 58KTS 59KTS 57KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 71.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 70.3W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 67.7W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SouthFloridawx]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040641
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 18 20110804
063200 1556N 07055W 6970 03175 //// +078 //// 213027 028 027 005 01
063230 1557N 07053W 6963 03182 //// +077 //// 212028 028 024 005 01
063300 1557N 07052W 6966 03179 //// +071 //// 209030 031 021 006 01
063330 1558N 07050W 6967 03177 //// +073 //// 208030 031 017 007 05
063400 1559N 07048W 6967 03180 //// +073 //// 205029 030 021 007 01
063430 1600N 07046W 6967 03181 //// +071 //// 204029 029 022 006 01
063500 1601N 07045W 6966 03181 0110 +071 //// 197028 029 022 005 01
063530 1603N 07043W 6969 03176 0100 +077 +071 197029 029 021 004 03
063600 1602N 07041W 6966 03181 0097 +079 +071 200028 028 023 005 03
063630 1601N 07040W 6967 03179 0099 +078 +072 200027 027 028 005 00
063700 1600N 07038W 6967 03180 0100 +078 +073 208026 026 035 011 00
063730 1559N 07037W 6964 03182 0103 +068 //// 213029 037 035 014 05
063800 1558N 07035W 6939 03216 0115 +061 //// 220029 033 044 020 05
063830 1558N 07033W 6964 03171 //// +044 //// 187039 043 038 025 05
063900 1558N 07031W 6965 03174 0127 +049 //// 189033 034 036 021 01
063930 1557N 07030W 6967 03174 0127 +053 //// 188036 038 032 009 01
064000 1557N 07028W 6967 03176 0124 +058 +057 183037 038 031 005 03
064030 1557N 07026W 6966 03179 0129 +054 //// 181038 040 028 005 01
064100 1557N 07024W 6967 03179 0111 +069 +052 181039 040 026 004 00
064130 1558N 07022W 6971 03175 0107 +074 +051 183038 039 027 002 00
$$
;

[Florida1118]

Looks like another Westward shift and an "Increase threat to the SE US" at 5