ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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Raebie
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#6901 Postby Raebie » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:08 pm

I just don't see how the forecast point can be so close to the SC coast and then veer east and hit the outer banks missing Cape Fear. What am I missing here?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
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Re:

#6902 Postby shawn67 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:08 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111584

Mark Sudduth live at 4PM (hopefully) :-)



FYI...NO AUDIO IN FEED
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6903 Postby TheBurn » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:09 pm

15:45EDT WV

Image
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Re: Re:

#6904 Postby TheBurn » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:10 pm

shawn67 wrote:
mf_dolphin wrote:http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111584

Mark Sudduth live at 4PM (hopefully) :-)



FYI...NO AUDIO IN FEED

You can click on it and get the pop-up w audio. Worked for me.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6905 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:11 pm

Angle of motion after landfall will be key to my own personal experience. If its heading NNE after a landfall on bogue banks/MHX and tracks up over the pungo river the eye will be at closest approach 40 miles to my east. If its a more northerly heading it could be as short as 20 miles to my east. This is barring no more west/east shifts and the track is correct.


I suspect there may be another nudge west at 5pm as the 18z TVCN came in 15 or so miles west again.
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#6906 Postby Aja » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:11 pm

According to aircraft recon, #Irene's pressure is 963mb; surface winds measured at 161 mph north of Irene's center!
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Re:

#6907 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:13 pm

Aja wrote:According to aircraft recon, #Irene's pressure is 963mb; surface winds measured at 161 mph north of Irene's center!



that has to be wrong, right? pressure is up 10mb and cat 5 winds??? maybe a gust?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon

#6908 Postby TropicalWXMA » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:13 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Gulf stream is also out.

Image


For those interested, you can track NOAA49 (reg N49RF) on Flightaware by clicking here
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6909 Postby SNOW_JOKE » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:13 pm

The Bahaman's tend to cut-off the electricity pre-storm in order to protect infastructure and make it easier for the companies to rebuild whats down once the storm passes. It also lessens the risk of electrical fires so nothing much coming out of the Bahamas for the short-term isn't too much of a worry. The lower-lying communities would have been evac a long time before the Hurricane approached and so will be hunkered down in the shelters.
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Re:

#6910 Postby Hogweed » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:13 pm

Aja wrote:According to aircraft recon, #Irene's pressure is 963mb; surface winds measured at 161 mph north of Irene's center!


Eh? Last VDM says 950mb. That wind speed was a gust mentioned by Fox was it not - not from recon.
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#6911 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:13 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 252005
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 28 20110825
195530 2540N 07547W 6970 03100 0007 +085 +043 205069 070 045 001 00
195600 2542N 07547W 6967 03101 0007 +083 +042 203069 069 047 000 00
195630 2545N 07547W 6966 03102 0002 +087 +042 203069 069 050 001 03
195700 2547N 07547W 6967 03100 9998 +088 +042 203069 069 051 001 00
195730 2549N 07547W 6967 03090 9988 +088 +043 203070 071 051 001 00
195800 2552N 07547W 6967 03085 9980 +090 +043 206072 072 052 000 03
195830 2554N 07547W 6967 03078 9972 +091 +043 206071 071 051 002 00
195900 2556N 07547W 6966 03080 9977 +087 +043 204073 073 052 002 00
195930 2558N 07547W 6966 03077 9978 +083 +043 203074 075 054 001 00
200000 2601N 07547W 6967 03074 9976 +085 +043 203075 075 054 002 00
200030 2603N 07547W 6969 03069 9977 +081 +043 202075 076 054 002 00
200100 2606N 07547W 6966 03069 9978 +076 +042 200077 078 054 001 00
200130 2608N 07547W 6967 03064 9969 +081 +041 201079 079 055 002 00
200200 2610N 07547W 6967 03063 9969 +080 +040 202081 082 056 001 00
200230 2613N 07547W 6967 03061 9962 +084 +040 199081 081 055 001 00
200300 2615N 07547W 6967 03057 9955 +086 +040 197082 083 055 000 00
200330 2618N 07547W 6966 03057 9949 +090 +040 199084 084 055 001 00
200400 2620N 07547W 6970 03050 9948 +088 +040 200085 085 056 002 00
200430 2622N 07547W 6967 03051 9950 +085 +041 200086 087 057 001 03
200500 2625N 07547W 6967 03049 9946 +085 +041 199087 087 057 002 00
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Re: Re:

#6912 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:15 pm

shawn67 wrote:
mf_dolphin wrote:http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111584

Mark Sudduth live at 4PM (hopefully) :-)



FYI...NO AUDIO IN FEED


Turn on your speakers? I hear it fine.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6913 Postby mf_dolphin » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:17 pm

I had to refresh to get the audio but after that it worked fine :-)
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Re: Re:

#6914 Postby Pebbles » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:
shawn67 wrote:
mf_dolphin wrote:http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111584

Mark Sudduth live at 4PM (hopefully) :-)



FYI...NO AUDIO IN FEED


Turn on your speakers? I hear it fine.


No, I had to go right to their ustream feed to hear the audio. May be a browser issue for some folks or something. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricanetrack-com
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6915 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:17 pm

Some good wind gusts in Hobe Sound 30+ mph.

Different Radar look: http://www.cbs12.com/sections/weather/interactive-radar
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6916 Postby FireRat » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:18 pm

Winds have picked up here in western broward county by about 10 mph. It's not raining at the present moment and winds are gusting I'd say around 25 mph....up from nearly calm hours ago.
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#6917 Postby Aja » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:18 pm

According to Atlantic watch it is correct.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon Discussion

#6918 Postby littlevince » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:19 pm

I'm here and can do graphics if needed.
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#6919 Postby Aja » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:19 pm

wxbrad Brad Panovich WCNC
#Irene seems to have completed an eyewall replacement cycle, we might see large upswing in intensity very soon.
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Re:

#6920 Postby psyclone » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:19 pm

Aja wrote:According to aircraft recon, #Irene's pressure is 963mb; surface winds measured at 161 mph north of Irene's center!

both of those figures sound erroneous. pressure has been around 950mb and winds are quite a bit lower than that
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