ATL: EMILY - Remnants

#701 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:47 pm

12z UKMET also coming in further south

#702 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:47 pm

Cycloneye, that remains to be to seen in the next couple of days. But, given its large moist envelope, I would think it is within the realm of possibility that it could grow in size comparable to what Floyd was in '99 for example. Just a thought.

Aric Dunn · #703 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:48 pm

Ivanhater wrote:35 knots...could go straight to Emily, but I think the NHC will upgrade to TD tonight and wait for Recon tomorrow to upgrade to Emily.

AL, 91, 2011042218, , BEST, 0, 265N, 640W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 60, 1013, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

yeah its very quickly organizing and convection is building and filling in over the MLC and likely LLC. 5pm may not be out the question. or 11pm. My initial analysis from 3 days ago would verify then... huge difference from this morning.. thats for sure..

HurricaneWarning92 · #704 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:48 pm

hurricanedude wrote:LOL...never mind, ya dont get my point....back to topic B4 cycloneeye or Ivanhater yells at me
hehehe

I just dont get why you and Aric Dunn are being rude, making fun of something i said, which was just my opinion. that was not necessary, imo. but w.e back to topic.

Aric Dunn · #705 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:51 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:LOL...never mind, ya dont get my point....back to topic B4 cycloneeye or Ivanhater yells at me
hehehe

I just dont get why you and Aric Dunn are being rude, making fun of something i said, which was just my opinion. that was not necessary, imo. but w.e back to topic.

I honestly did not even know you posted anything.. I was just making a mathematical statement. sorry... yeah back to satellite loops, model run, surface obs and picking the NHC's brain...

#706 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:51 pm

Aric,here is the cause for the boom I talked earlier. It has slowed.

LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 47.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

Aric Dunn · #707 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:53 pm

NOGAPS is farther south and then cuts across cuba and looks like the spine of florida after

#708 Postby **drezee** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:54 pm

Euro move 91L less than 100 miles in 24 hrs between 168 and 192hrs, then absorbs it into a larger Low.

#709 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:54 pm

Interesting that the latest model runs have shifted farther south. That is an indication that the ridge will remain rather strong apparenty than was indicated in earlier runs today.

We will see if this trend continues in later model runs.

Aric Dunn · #710 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:Aric,here is the cause for the boom I talked earlier. It has slowed.

LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 47.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

yeah I figured it was going to today. this morning I noticed the weakness coming up in the ridging at around 50W. ITs always amazes me how fast things change.

#711 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:55 pm

BAMs really receded on their 18z run, with none of them showing clear recurve unlike the previous run.

Aric Dunn · #712 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:58 pm

I just have to say it again... the outflow is spectacular !! once we get a well defined LLC no reason this could not intensify quickly. but for the islands sake .. hopefully it just struggles for awhile..

#713 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:58 pm

drezee wrote:Euro move 91L less than 100 miles in 24 hrs between 168 and 192hrs.

That is because in that time frame the system is hung up near Hispaniola. This is not uncommon to see that happen with tropical cyclones in that region with the interaction of the mountain terrian over that island should it happen in this run.

cvalkan4 · #714 Postby **cvalkan4** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:58 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:This is definitely not a recurve guys. We call them recurves when they dont affect any land areas but it looks like it will affect the islands, so it wouldnt be a recurve for them--for all we know, it could be a nightmare for them.

You're thinking of a "fish"

arent they basically the same? The both go to the open waters.

"Recurve" usually describes a storm as it changes from a mostly westward trajectory to assume a more northerly and then northeastward path, as it moves around the western edge of the Bermuda-Azores high. This recurve doesn't imply anything necessarily about hitting land or not, although many recurves will occur east of the continental US. But a recurve farther west can certainly bring a storm into land from a southerly or even southwesterly direction.

"Fish storm" is one that affects only fish, and should properly be used for one that does not hit any land, including the islands. We in the US sometimes use "fish" to mean it didn't hit us, but that's a very narrow view, and certainly not very thoughtful with respect to our Caribbean and Bermuda friends.

#715 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:59 pm

Trying to figure out the two out of ten scenarios that this doesn't develop in the next 48 hours.

Aric Dunn · #716 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:00 pm

RL3AO wrote:Trying to figure out the two out of ten scenarios that this doesn't develop in the next 48 hours.

quite simple.. it could form now.. and still fall within that range...

#717 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:05 pm

She's waking up

#718 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:07 pm

Looks like a TD that's approaching TS strength now. NHC should upgrade at 4pm. Will be a quickly-developing TS in the morning. And the one just moving off Africa will be Franklin, most likely.

#719 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:08 pm

Not linear anymore. :eek:

#720 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks like a TD that's approaching TS strength now. NHC should upgrade at 4pm. Will be a quickly-developing TS in the morning. And the one just moving off Africa will be Franklin, most likely.

Lid has blown off folks...6 named systems by the start of August is insane

ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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