ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[abajan]

It's overcast with light rain and a bit of thunder here now.

[tailgater]

Local radar it's only 4 frames but better than nothing( i'm so spoilt).
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... saique.gif

[Gustywind]

It's overcast with light rain and a bit of thunder here now.

Thanks for you info Abajan

Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
Conditions at Aug 15, 2011 - 07:00 AM EDTAug 15, 2011
Wind from the N (010 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 100%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob TBPB 151100Z 01007KT 2000 -SHRA BKN008 BKN010CB 24/24 Q1012 RERA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 7 AM (11) Aug 15 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) N 8 light rain showers
6 AM (10) Aug 15 75 (24) 68 (20) 29.88 (1012) NE 18 rain showers
5 AM (9) Aug 15 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) Variable 2 thunder in the vicinity

[KWT]

Will probably get a 10% soon given the convective flare-up, if it keeps going today then it may well get considered for re-investment

[GCANE]

UL looks great.

The anti-cyclone has been over this for at least 36 hrs.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF


WV shows a good radial outflow.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[KWT]

It does look like conditions are getting a little better, still think the lower level flow isn't ideal at the moment though.

[GCANE]

I am wondering if Gert's LL TPW advection disrupted convergence for ex-93L.

Now that Gert is pulling away, could it start to spin up?

It looks like pretty good concentration of TPW for ex-93L.

[OURAGAN]

93L is reactived.

[chrisjslucia]

Heavy rain, some wind and thunderstorm here in St Lucia this morning as 93L, as was, arrives. A day earlier than expected?

[SFLcane]

WHXX01 KWBC 151132

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1132 UTC MON AUG 15 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110815 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110815 0600 110815 1800 110816 0600 110816 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.3N 54.7W 13.8N 57.7W 14.2N 60.9W 15.0N 64.5W

BAMD 13.3N 54.7W 13.7N 57.7W 14.2N 60.6W 14.7N 63.6W

BAMM 13.3N 54.7W 13.8N 57.7W 14.3N 60.7W 15.0N 63.9W

LBAR 13.3N 54.7W 13.7N 58.2W 14.2N 61.8W 14.8N 65.6W

SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 37KTS

DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 37KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110817 0600 110818 0600 110819 0600 110820 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.9N 68.2W 17.9N 75.4W 19.4N 81.0W 20.6N 85.2W

BAMD 15.4N 66.6W 17.1N 71.9W 18.6N 75.9W 20.0N 78.9W

BAMM 15.8N 67.2W 17.5N 73.1W 19.2N 77.8W 20.8N 81.5W

LBAR 15.5N 69.3W 16.8N 76.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 46KTS 62KTS 72KTS 79KTS

DSHP 46KTS 62KTS 72KTS 79KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 50.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 23KT

LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 45.4W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

[cycloneye]

93L reactivated,06z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011081506, , BEST, 0, 133N, 547W, 20, 1010, WV

[KWT]

If it doesn't develop then the extrap motion is probably going to be as good a guide as the models...

If it does develop then looking at the models it may pick up a little bit of latitude and maybe get further north and make it back over water.

[KWT]

Looks like the deep convection was enough afterall to get the NHC to start paying attention to this...

[Gustywind]

Given NRL site 93L is reactived.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis
Latest:
20110815.1115.93LINVEST.20kts-1010mb-133N-546W.

[SFLcane]

Looks like the deep convection was enough afterall to get the NHC to start paying attention to this...

Indeed...Upper level conditions dont look all that bad.

[KWT]

Its a nice convective burst, still its heading towards the E.Caribbean where systems recently have struggled to get something going at the lower levels...

[x-y-no]

Can't really ignore that amount of convection, so I agree with re-activating it. That said, this has a long way to go. There's some moderate low-level convergence but pretty much no vorticity at all at 850, 700 or even 500.

Upper level does look better.

[HURAKAN]

718
ABNT20 KNHC 151157
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650
MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GERT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[GCANE]

Looks like it was shooting some high rain-rate OTs a couple hours ago.

Could see some development during the day today.

[OURAGAN]

10%

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.