ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[micktooth]

Since Katia is tracking NNW now and is more likely to strengthen to a hurricane around 40-45W versus 50W, does this mean the storm will likely be a fish? Curving out too sea cause it formed too soon and not hit the east coast?

Per latest NHC discussion Katia is tracking WNW @ 285 heading

[Jevo]

Since Katia is tracking NNW now and is more likely to strengthen to a hurricane around 40-45W versus 50W, does this mean the storm will likely be a fish? Curving out too sea cause it formed too soon and not hit the east coast?

I have not seen any indication of a NNW movement.. Last sat fixes still are hovering between 270 - 285 (W-WNW)

[ckiggins]

To the experts: traditionally how accurate have the NCEP GFS models been? I have been watching these on Jonathan Maue's page: http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv900atl_anim_16.html

[mascpa]

Since Katia is tracking NNW now and is more likely to strengthen to a hurricane around 40-45W versus 50W, does this mean the storm will likely be a fish? Curving out too sea cause it formed too soon and not hit the east coast?

Tracking NNW ??? Not til near the end of the model runs, if then. But I do think the odds of this being a fish are higher than any other scenario. Of one thing I am certain, the models will change during the next week or so. Maybe at that point, we'll have a better idea of what to expect from her.

[Jevo]

12Z NOGAPS at 138h.... shift into the wrong side of 20/60

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/842/083012nogaps138h.gif/[/url]

Hehehe I know its only NOGAPS.. but

Hello Hebert Box

Edit: these are just the storms that passed through the box and hit FL... Not all storms that have ever passed through the box have done so



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[mascpa]

To the experts: traditionally how accurate have the NCEP GFS models been? I have been watching these on Jonathan Maue's page: http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv900atl_anim_16.html

And what is that at the end of the run ruining my friend Cyloneye's day?

[meriland23]

Since Katia is tracking NNW now and is more likely to strengthen to a hurricane around 40-45W versus 50W, does this mean the storm will likely be a fish? Curving out too sea cause it formed too soon and not hit the east coast?

Tracking NNW ??? Not til near the end of the model runs, if then. But I do think the odds of this being a fish are higher than any other scenario. Of one thing I am certain, the models will change during the next week or so. Maybe at that point, we'll have a better idea of what to expect from her.

Sorry I ment WNW, I just woke up lol.. typo.

[meriland23]

This thing is going to slow down significantly, not in strength, but foreward speed. Katia is going to be approaching a weakness in the western-atlantic ridge, that is going to be the factor in her turning NW instead if WNW a little later.

[z-bail]

Don't forget Irene just passed thru the hebert box and missed Florida and almost missed CONUS.

Your graph makes it look like all the storms that go thru it hit Florida.

[ckiggins]

To the experts: traditionally how accurate have the NCEP GFS models been? I have been watching these on Jonathan Maue's page: http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv900atl_anim_16.html

And what is that at the end of the run ruining my friend Cyloneye's day?

I'm no expert but I'm going to guess you're referring to the cold front coming off of the east coast?

[mascpa]

To the experts: traditionally how accurate have the NCEP GFS models been? I have been watching these on Jonathan Maue's page: http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv900atl_anim_16.html

And what is that at the end of the run ruining my friend Cyloneye's day?

I'm no expert but I'm going to guess you're referring to the cold front coming off of the east coast?

No, there is some sort of system that develops in the E Atl and goes directly over PR right at the end of the run.

[meriland23]

Does anyone have a updated projected path image?

[jhpigott]

wonder what the 12z Euro is gonna show...further west? we'll see.

looks like 12z GFS was a little south and west again
NOGAPS trending west
GDFL, HRWF and EURO up next . . .

[Jevo]

Don't forget Irene just passed thru the hebert box and missed Florida and almost missed CONUS.

Your graph makes it look like all the storms that go thru it hit Florida.

Thats what I was going for.. the ZOMG were doomed effect j/k

Its more of a lampoon than anything as soon as a storm looks like it's going through it us floridians post the Hebert box... I dont think it has been right since '05

I should have posted some lol emoticons

[Jevo]

12z Euro Initialized (started early today)



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12z Euro +24



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[Jevo]

12z Euro +48



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[clfenwi]

12Z HWRF wind swath


Loop

[clfenwi]

12Z GFDL; only model I've seen that shifted to the right from its previous run



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Loop

[meriland23]

Do you guys have a link to the 12z euro models? Ranging from 48-240 or more hours? I know the models are usually pretty accurate.

[Jevo]

Do you guys have a link to the 12z euro models? Ranging from 48-240 or more hours? I know the models are usually pretty accurate.

They're still running... .. 72+ isnt out yet

Spoke too soon

12z Euro +72



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