ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

Certainly the potential for major flooding across south LA as it develops and meanders around near the LA coast over the weekend, regardless of whether it eventually tracks southwest or northeast. GFS may tend to be a bit strong with the trof to the north, that's why it's been leaning NE vs. the other models.

What are your latest thoughts on track and intensity? How close do you think it can get to Upper TX coast before being shunted SW or NE?

[T-man]

We are hoping it doesn't sit and spin out there all week long down here in Lafitte, we will certainly have some flooding if that occurs. All that rain, and the high tides will be a problem for some folks down here on the bayou.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

BigB, I dont think many are talking about it yet because they don't know what will become of it. Once 93 does develop into TS Lee it will be all over the news. Especially with the threat of it stalling and looping in the gulf. As I said earlier this IMO has the potential to be worse than Gustav around here. With the last Euro showing it coming ashore as a strong cane and as Ivanhater posted the latest GFS sitting over south LA for 4-5 days. First with as dry as its been add some strong wind gusts and trees and limbs will snap like match sticks. Then throw in torrential flooding rains in excess of 12-20" and possibly more with more strong winds and trees will uproot all over the place. This has the potential to get really bad around these parts.

[gboudx]

We are hoping it doesn't sit and spin out there all week long down here in Lafitte, we will certainly have some flooding if that occurs. All that rain, and the high tides will be a problem for some folks down here on the bayou.

Would depend on the wind direction. Northerly and/or easterly, the bayou shouldn't rise too much. But get a southerly component and it may be game on. I hope Timmy is ready with some better boom than he used for Ike.

[clfenwi]

Lots of flights on the docket for tomorrow. Note that their is a NOAA plane in the air now; not the AF plane that was scheduled. (Strike comment about Teal 71, as a revision is now posted).

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 011650 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1250 PM EDT THU 01 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-093 AMENDMENT....FOR TEAL NUMBERS
I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF 0F MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75          FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
       A. 02/12Z,18Z                 A. 03/00Z
       B. AFXXX 03HHA CYCLONE        B. NOAA9 04HHA CYCLONE
       C. 02/11Z                     C. 03/1730Z
       D. 29.2N 91.5W                F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
       E. 02/1130Z TO 02/18Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42        FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 76
       A. 03/00Z                     A. 03/00Z,06Z
       B. NOAA2 05HHA CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 06HHA CYCLONE
       C. 02/20Z                     C. 02/23Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           D. 28.5N 92.0W
                                     E. 02/2320Z TO 03/06Z
                                     F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49         FLIGHT SIX - NOAA 43
       A. 03/12Z                     A. 03/12Z
       B. NOAA9 07HHA CYCLONE        B. NOAA3 08HHA CYCLONE
       C. 03/0530Z                   C. 03/08Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       FLIGHT SEVEN - TEAL 77
       A. 03/11Z-15Z - BUOY DROP
       B. AFXXX 09HHA CYCLONE
       C. 03/1030Z
       F. SFC TO 5,000 FT
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES,
       G-IV AND P-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS. A SECOND BUOY
       DROP MISSION ON THE 4TH.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
                          JWP





[BigB0882]

Guess I should go to the store today, just in case this turns into more than just a rain event for my area. Can't hurt. I should have done this way earlier in the season.

[wxman57]

I just hope we're not left high and dry here in Houston. Just 7.9" of rain since last December, and much of that in January. Trees are dying all over the area. 100F or more for 30 days in August, with a peak of 109 degrees and just one brief shower dropping less than 0.1" of rain on that one day it hit only 96 degrees.

I do think we have a shot at getting some rain out of the storm, but not if it takes the GFS' track.

[PTrackerLA]

Wxman what kind of winds do you think we can expect here in Lafayette? I'm thinking if this is a prolonged multi day event that day after day of TS conditions would start to cause some problems.

[crazy4disney]

We are hoping it doesn't sit and spin out there all week long down here in Lafitte, we will certainly have some flooding if that occurs. All that rain, and the high tides will be a problem for some folks down here on the bayou.

We will gladly take it off your hands. At this point, most everyone I have talked to has said that even the risk of flooding is an acceptable risk at this point, we're so desperate for rain. Between the insane record-decimating heat and the incredible drought, everyone is already pretty stabby around these parts... If this blob ends up in LA and leaves us even drier and hotter, I think we all might just lose it a little bit.

-gina-

[clfenwi]

I probably won't be able to consistenly keep up w/ these, so if someone else wants to grab obs, go ahead. I just wanted to post to make sure people were looking for NOAA obs (and not the AF as originally scheduled.)

URNT15 KWBC 011640
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 03 20110901
163030 2742N 08315W 6469 03873 0199 +040 +010 092014 015 021 000 00
163100 2742N 08318W 6481 03855 0197 +041 +015 095013 014 024 000 00
163130 2743N 08320W 6474 03865 0196 +041 +014 095013 013 024 000 00
163200 2743N 08323W 6476 03863 0189 +044 +022 087011 011 023 000 00
163230 2743N 08326W 6476 03862 0183 +048 +029 094012 012 023 000 00
163300 2743N 08328W 6478 03860 0179 +050 +028 102013 013 024 000 00
163330 2743N 08331W 6478 03860 0181 +049 +029 109012 012 024 000 00
163400 2744N 08334W 6477 03862 0180 +051 +026 112010 011 024 000 00
163430 2744N 08336W 6477 03861 0178 +052 +022 112009 010 025 000 00
163500 2744N 08339W 6478 03860 0177 +052 +022 115009 010 025 000 00
163530 2744N 08341W 6477 03861 0180 +050 +027 125009 009 025 000 00
163600 2745N 08344W 6478 03860 0183 +048 +026 134008 008 024 000 00
163630 2745N 08346W 6478 03859 0186 +047 +025 131009 009 025 000 00
163700 2745N 08349W 6479 03859 0187 +046 +026 122009 010 024 000 00
163730 2745N 08351W 6480 03858 0187 +046 +024 122010 010 024 000 00
163800 2746N 08354W 6479 03858 0185 +048 +025 126009 010 025 000 00
163830 2746N 08357W 6477 03859 0178 +050 +031 143008 008 024 000 00
163900 2746N 08359W 6479 03857 0180 +048 +037 146008 008 024 000 00
163930 2746N 08402W 6480 03856 0180 +048 +037 146008 008 024 000 00
164000 2746N 08404W 6480 03854 0179 +049 +033 135009 009 023 000 00

[HouTXmetro]

We are hoping it doesn't sit and spin out there all week long down here in Lafitte, we will certainly have some flooding if that occurs. All that rain, and the high tides will be a problem for some folks down here on the bayou.

We will gladly take it off your hands. At this point, most everyone I have talked to has said that even the risk of flooding is an acceptable risk at this point, we're so desperate for rain. Between the insane record-decimating heat and the incredible drought, everyone is already pretty stabby around these parts... If this blob ends up in LA and leaves us even drier and hotter, I think we all might just lose it a little bit.

-gina-

Pipes busting everywhere, parents home foundation is cracking... it's bad. But Whatever happens we will manage. I just hope this system is the relief we've been waiting for.

[wxman57]

Wxman what kind of winds do you think we can expect here in Lafayette? I'm thinking if this is a prolonged multi day event that day after day of TS conditions would start to cause some problems.

If it was to move to the coast near Vermilion Bay, then it wouldn't be able to get as strong (become a hurricane) like it would farther offshore. You'd be looking at easterly winds from 20 to 35 mph for quite a while along with torrential rain - at least 10-15" and quite possibly a lot more. Perfect Labor Day weekend - please send that rain to us.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman, if the GFS is showing the trough being a little to strong would that be worse due to the fact that 93 would not get pulled inland towards the NE and lead it to sit somehwere out in the gulf off the LA coast longer than what it currently is showing?

[NTXwx30]

Invest 93L is going to be a headache for forecasters this weekend and early next week, as it will likely meander around the northwest Gulf of Mexico for a few days before moving inland. A move straight NW into the heart of Texas is unlikely due to the ridge there, and a deflection either WSW or northeast along the periphery of the ridge is likely. The big question is which direction will it choose and when will it choose it. A shortwave trough moving into the eastern U.S. in 3-4 days will try to tug 93L northeast, but it may or may not succeed. But the main point is that much is going to depend on how strong 93L is and how it influences its own environment. 93L's strongest outflow channel is going to be to the southeast towards the NW Caribbean during its life, and if it strengthens substantially into a strong storm, that outflow will help strengthen the ridge to the southeast of 93L, between itself and Hurricane Katia to the east. This ridge would then increase the southwesterly steering flow over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus 93L would help propel itself northeastward into Louisiana. Because I think 93L has a chance to get fairly strong while sitting over very hot water for 4-5 days, I think the eventual end-game will be a northeast move into the Louisiana/MS area, after an initial loop to the WSW off the Texas coast and then back northward. This forecast has a larger than normal amount of uncertainty due to the complex pattern involved with weak steering currents, and the computer models are solidly divided in half between an eventual northeast movement and a WSW movement into south Texas or northern Mexico.

The benefit from 93L may be that with several days in the NW gulf it is sure to bring coastal Texas at least some showers periodically, which would be welcomed by many. However, if 93L doesn't move inland quickly this weekend, that kind of time over the 31C waters of the gulf could allow it to strengthen significantly, and a hurricane would be likely if 93L is still over water come Monday. This is the concerning part of this situation. The ECMWF shows a worst-case scenario by having 93L miss the first trough and sit still in the NW gulf for 8 days, strengthening into a major hurricane before moving into Louisiana in response to a 2nd trough. While the Euro is the outlier showing this solution, it illustrates the fragility of this pattern and just how hard it is going to be to make 93L go anywhere. I think eveyone in the gulf states should prepare at this time.

[T-man]

We are hoping it doesn't sit and spin out there all week long down here in Lafitte, we will certainly have some flooding if that occurs. All that rain, and the high tides will be a problem for some folks down here on the bayou.

Would depend on the wind direction. Northerly and/or easterly, the bayou shouldn't rise too much. But get a southerly component and it may be game on. I hope Timmy is ready with some better boom than he used for Ike.

Well, as you know, if it slides SW we will be gettin' stacked up in Barataria Bay, and the waterway...hoping for the best.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KWBC 011650
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 04 20110901
164030 2747N 08407W 6480 03857 0182 +048 +028 128009 009 023 000 00
164100 2747N 08409W 6480 03858 0185 +047 +031 127009 009 025 000 00
164130 2747N 08412W 6479 03858 0183 +047 +037 135009 010 026 000 00
164200 2747N 08414W 6480 03856 0182 +048 +038 139009 009 026 000 00
164230 2747N 08417W 6480 03857 0182 +048 +038 142010 011 026 000 03
164300 2747N 08419W 6480 03858 0185 +046 +040 143011 011 028 000 00
164330 2747N 08422W 6481 03857 0184 +047 +039 141011 011 028 000 00
164400 2747N 08424W 6480 03858 0185 +046 +039 139011 012 027 000 00
164430 2747N 08427W 6480 03858 0186 +046 +039 138010 010 027 000 00
164500 2746N 08429W 6481 03857 0184 +047 +037 135010 010 027 000 00
164530 2746N 08432W 6481 03857 0183 +049 +038 135011 011 027 000 00
164600 2746N 08435W 6480 03859 0181 +050 +037 141012 013 027 000 00
164630 2746N 08437W 6481 03858 0182 +049 +040 147013 013 026 000 00
164700 2746N 08440W 6481 03857 0181 +049 +038 144013 013 027 000 00
164730 2746N 08442W 6481 03857 0182 +048 +041 142014 014 027 000 00
164800 2746N 08445W 6482 03856 0182 +048 +046 140014 014 027 000 00
164830 2746N 08447W 6483 03854 0182 +048 +045 136015 015 028 000 00
164900 2746N 08450W 6482 03856 0181 +047 +052 137015 015 030 001 00
164930 2746N 08452W 6482 03854 0177 +050 +044 145015 015 029 000 00
165000 2746N 08455W 6482 03853 9784 +049 +043 146016 017 028 000 00

[T-man]

We are hoping it doesn't sit and spin out there all week long down here in Lafitte, we will certainly have some flooding if that occurs. All that rain, and the high tides will be a problem for some folks down here on the bayou.

We will gladly take it off your hands. At this point, most everyone I have talked to has said that even the risk of flooding is an acceptable risk at this point, we're so desperate for rain. Between the insane record-decimating heat and the incredible drought, everyone is already pretty stabby around these parts... If this blob ends up in LA and leaves us even drier and hotter, I think we all might just lose it a little bit.

-gina-

I was hoping my friends and family in Texas would benefit from this tropical weather. I still do...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I have made a few posts referencing damage could be worse around here IF 93 strenghtens into a hurricane and sits just offshore for 3-5 dyas like some models are showing. Anyway just realized today is the 3 year anniversary of Gustav making landfall in south LA. Hope it is not a sign of bad things to come.

[TexWx]

Thanks T-man....

I'm just not seeing it really.

[Dave]