ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

I live in the middle of Long Island. What type of winds do you think we would have up here? Wouldn't the storm weaken when it hits land?

Probably but I'd look at the NHC for this sort of information, they are suggesting a category-1 landfall, which doesn't seem that unreasonable.

[GreenWinds]

GreenWinds, I only said near because I'm not totally sure of the track and neither are the models, however odds are this will hit Long Island and the chances of at least TS winds in NYC are probably quite high...my gut would say 50-60kts winds sustained in NYC IF the current track held.

The only thing I'll say is if there will be a track error, it will be to the east not the west IMO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Isn't the current forecast showing landfall of Irene near Coney Island as a category 1? So that would at least be 65 kts sustained winds.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252158
NOAA2 2309A IRENE HDOB 13 20110825
214900 2841N 07625W 7519 02444 9971 +127 //// 126068 069 057 009 01
214930 2841N 07627W 7510 02456 9973 +127 +130 129078 081 053 005 00
215000 2842N 07630W 7515 02452 9976 +124 +127 127081 082 053 003 00
215030 2843N 07633W 7525 02439 9975 +124 +127 128082 082 051 004 00
215100 2844N 07636W 7525 02438 9975 +123 +127 127082 083 053 005 00
215130 2844N 07639W 7524 02438 9974 +124 +127 127082 082 054 004 00
215200 2845N 07642W 7523 02439 9973 +124 +128 127082 082 052 005 00
215230 2846N 07644W 7524 02438 9975 +121 //// 126081 082 052 005 01
215300 2847N 07647W 7522 02440 9978 +120 //// 126080 080 053 006 01
215330 2848N 07650W 7523 02442 9979 +121 //// 124077 078 055 003 01
215400 2849N 07653W 7522 02442 9975 +125 +130 125075 075 055 004 00
215430 2850N 07656W 7525 02439 9974 +126 +129 124074 075 056 003 00
215500 2851N 07659W 7524 02440 9972 +128 +129 122072 073 055 006 00
215530 2852N 07701W 7523 02443 9974 +128 +130 120070 070 057 007 00
215600 2853N 07704W 7523 02444 9976 +127 +129 118069 070 057 007 00
215630 2854N 07707W 7525 02442 9976 +127 +131 117069 069 056 008 00
215700 2855N 07709W 7525 02442 9977 +126 //// 117072 072 055 011 05
215730 2855N 07712W 7526 02443 9978 +127 +129 115073 073 /// /// 03
215800 2853N 07714W 7522 02442 9971 +129 +128 113072 072 052 011 03
215830 2852N 07713W 7524 02438 9971 +125 //// 113069 070 056 010 01

[CrazyC83]

Still don't want to think the intensity is higher than 90-95 kt due to the SFMR.

IMO 947mb and 111kts FL is a cat 3 hurricane. Gotta look at the totality of the evidence and consider the SFMR in light of all the data.

Not necessarily on the pressure. Irene is a large storm so there may be a mismatch. Igor (although much larger) last year had that pressure while a Category 1.

[maxintensity]

Still don't want to think the intensity is higher than 90-95 kt due to the SFMR.

IMO 947mb and 111kts FL is a cat 3 hurricane. Gotta look at the totality of the evidence and consider the SFMR in light of all the data.

Not necessarily on the pressure. Irene is a large storm so there may be a mismatch. Igor (although much larger) last year had that pressure while a Category 1.

Well the SFMR will likely come up as we are now getting the deeper convection back and it should be able to transport the FL winds to the surface a bit better in the next few hours. All in all though I think Cat 3 is justified. I will say though this was a cat 2 for all day until that last recon pass.

[Dave]

NOAA2

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252205
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 40 20110825
215530 2544N 07740W 6967 03064 9940 +104 +044 276065 066 048 000 03
215600 2544N 07738W 6962 03069 9935 +107 +045 269066 067 049 000 03
215630 2545N 07735W 6966 03062 9935 +105 +045 269066 068 050 001 03
215700 2545N 07733W 6967 03059 9939 +102 +044 266068 068 051 001 00
215730 2546N 07731W 6968 03055 9935 +100 +044 264067 068 052 000 03
215800 2546N 07728W 6967 03053 9934 +100 +043 263068 069 051 000 03
215830 2546N 07726W 6967 03055 9935 +100 +042 260068 069 051 001 03
215900 2547N 07723W 6967 03055 9935 +099 +042 259069 069 052 000 03
215930 2547N 07721W 6966 03053 9934 +098 +042 258069 070 052 000 03
220000 2548N 07718W 6967 03051 9930 +100 +042 258072 073 054 001 03
220030 2548N 07716W 6968 03051 9932 +099 +042 255075 077 055 000 00
220100 2548N 07713W 6968 03050 9935 +097 +042 252077 078 053 002 00
220130 2549N 07711W 6970 03047 9929 +104 +042 251073 074 051 002 00
220200 2549N 07708W 6967 03053 9931 +101 +042 249070 071 053 001 03
220230 2550N 07706W 6969 03051 9935 +099 +042 247070 071 053 000 03
220300 2550N 07703W 6964 03056 9929 +101 +042 246071 073 054 000 03
220330 2550N 07701W 6968 03050 9925 +106 +043 248073 074 054 000 03
220400 2551N 07658W 6967 03050 9925 +104 +042 246073 073 052 001 03
220430 2551N 07656W 6969 03051 9919 +109 +042 243072 073 051 001 00
220500 2552N 07653W 6966 03055 9925 +106 +043 240069 069 051 000 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

Radar loop

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 252202
XXAA 75218 99273 70770 08077 99951 27007 12076 00945 ///// /////
92249 25807 13085 85994 22812 13577 88999 77999
31313 09608 82117
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 2309A IRENE OB 08
62626 REL 2728N07696W 211719 SPG 2732N07701W 212014 WL150 12581 0
85 DLM WND 13577 951753 MBL WND 13082=
XXBB 75218 99273 70770 08077 00951 27007 11938 26207 22834 22622
33753 18201
21212 00951 12076 11920 13589 22914 13581 33893 13582 44886 13573
55753 14577
31313 09608 82117
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 2309A IRENE OB 08
62626 REL 2728N07696W 211719 SPG 2732N07701W 212014 WL150 12581 0
85 DLM WND 13577 951753 MBL WND 13082=

[boiker]

She's starting to look a lot better organized, west side in particular looks better than it has in a day. Looks like she's committed to moving north too. It'll be interesting to watch the next 6 hours.

[KWT]

You can see using that radar loop that the system is broadly on a due north track with the odd wobbles to the NNE and NNW every now and then as you'd expect.

Also looks like the eyewall is becoming much more defined in the last hour or two, will be interesting to see if that translates into higher winds.

[tolakram]

Another radar loop, shorter but closer.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252215
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 41 20110825
220530 2552N 07651W 6969 03051 9928 +103 +043 240068 069 051 001 03
220600 2552N 07649W 6965 03055 9930 +103 +043 238070 070 052 000 03
220630 2553N 07646W 6967 03055 9934 +100 +043 233073 073 050 001 03
220700 2553N 07644W 6965 03056 9938 +097 +043 233073 074 048 000 03
220730 2553N 07641W 6967 03053 9939 +096 +043 233074 075 048 000 03
220800 2554N 07639W 6967 03056 9930 +105 +043 232073 074 048 000 00
220830 2554N 07637W 6967 03057 9935 +101 +043 232074 075 048 001 03
220900 2555N 07634W 6965 03061 9934 +103 +043 232075 076 049 001 03
220930 2555N 07632W 6967 03058 9942 +098 +043 229072 074 053 002 00
221000 2555N 07629W 6968 03058 9948 +093 +043 228070 071 056 015 03
221030 2556N 07627W 6984 03040 9955 +089 +042 232073 074 055 013 03
221100 2557N 07625W 6959 03068 9939 +099 +040 230070 073 052 002 03
221130 2559N 07623W 6964 03062 9962 +081 +039 222077 078 052 005 00
221200 2600N 07621W 6969 03056 9937 +100 +038 226074 076 051 000 00
221230 2601N 07619W 6969 03056 9942 +098 +037 225073 074 /// /// 03
221300 2601N 07617W 6969 03060 9949 +095 +038 222072 073 049 002 00
221330 2601N 07614W 6971 03061 9958 +090 +038 219072 073 049 003 00
221400 2601N 07612W 6969 03063 9980 +072 +038 218072 073 048 005 00
221430 2601N 07610W 6967 03067 9968 +084 +035 218070 070 048 002 00
221500 2601N 07608W 6965 03072 9965 +089 +035 214067 068 047 001 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Latest Visible Image

[summersquall]

I'm really scared for all of them. I am trying to spread the message all over that they need to take this seriously and learn from hurricane veterans in the south.

I know Virginia had already started setting up for Irene when we had the earthquake but they did not just ignore Irene and we have shelters being set up already. Where I am we may get some wind and rain since we are about 25 miles west of Williamsburg but my sister is in Newport News and I know they are taking this seriously.

Even those inland might have problems if for no other reason that the power goes out and when that happens we lose water as well. So am filling up my jugs and cleaning the tub so I can store water there if it becomes necessary.

Also, your water heater is a source of water after the storm.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252208
NOAA2 2309A IRENE HDOB 14 20110825
215900 2850N 07713W 7521 02439 9972 +123 //// 112070 070 054 011 01
215930 2848N 07713W 7525 02433 9972 +123 //// 111070 070 054 009 01
220000 2847N 07713W 7521 02435 9968 +121 //// 113073 073 054 005 01
220030 2845N 07713W 7522 02429 9962 +123 //// 113076 078 055 006 01
220100 2843N 07713W 7524 02423 9955 +126 +130 115076 077 055 007 00
220130 2841N 07713W 7523 02420 9951 +125 //// 114075 075 055 005 01
220200 2840N 07713W 7525 02415 9945 +127 +132 113075 077 054 004 00
220230 2838N 07713W 7522 02415 9941 +128 +131 113076 078 054 004 00
220300 2836N 07713W 7526 02409 9934 +131 +135 112077 079 055 002 00
220330 2835N 07713W 7525 02404 9929 +131 +132 112077 077 054 000 00
220400 2833N 07713W 7525 02400 9923 +134 +127 112076 077 055 000 00
220430 2831N 07713W 7523 02398 9911 +142 +125 114078 079 055 003 00
220500 2830N 07713W 7525 02392 9906 +142 +127 115080 081 056 001 00
220530 2828N 07713W 7526 02387 9903 +140 +133 114079 080 057 001 00
220600 2826N 07713W 7522 02387 9895 +144 +130 112080 082 055 001 00
220630 2825N 07713W 7522 02384 9894 +141 +132 111083 084 055 000 00
220700 2823N 07713W 7523 02379 9890 +139 +133 110082 082 054 000 00
220730 2821N 07713W 7526 02370 9883 +142 +131 107083 084 056 002 00
220800 2820N 07714W 7523 02367 9870 +151 +124 104082 083 058 001 00
220830 2818N 07714W 7520 02366 9859 +157 +120 106082 082 058 000 00

[KWT]

Latest hour loops is amazing, take a look at it and notice the higher cloud tops wrapping around the eyewall in the last hour. Think abit of a strengthening phase is kicking off now.

[SunnyThoughts]

She sure looks to be feeling her oats this early evening. Does Diurnal Max have an effect on an already established strong hurricane as it does when one is actually in its early stages?

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 252214
XXAA 75228 99285 70759 08085 99998 26420 09546 00521 ///// /////
92664 21008 12078 85393 16406 12584 88999 77999
31313 09608 82143
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 2309A IRENE OB 10
62626 REL 2852N07589W 214322 SPG 2855N07596W 214649 WL150 11057 0
85 DLM WND 12075 997752 MBL WND 11564=

XXBB 75228 99285 70759 08085 00998 26420 11992 26022 22962 23408
33859 17208 44752 12800
21212 00998 09546 11995 10554 22990 11053 33985 11561 44970 11567
55965 12065 66939 11076 77930 12072 88926 12078 99917 12080 11906
12077 22899 12071 33895 12079 44880 12583 55873 12593 66752 13074
31313 09608 82143
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 2309A IRENE OB 10
62626 REL 2852N07589W 214322 SPG 2855N07596W 214649 WL150 11057 0
85 DLM WND 12075 997752 MBL WND 11564=

[maxintensity]

No doubt a continued strengthening phase. NOAA plane penetrating again and I think we could see 945mb this pass.