ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Wrapping up nicely...convection expanding on the western side

Yeah, and you can see outflow developing on the western side as well - could be a sign that an upper level anticyclone is building over it.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181903
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 09 20110718
185300 2823N 07945W 8421 01628 0167 +159 +025 358006 007 /// /// 03
185330 2822N 07942W 8422 01626 0167 +152 +097 347006 007 032 003 03
185400 2822N 07940W 8425 01621 0166 +153 +105 337007 007 032 002 03
185430 2821N 07937W 8424 01623 0164 +156 +092 341006 006 032 003 03
185500 2821N 07935W 8424 01622 0163 +159 +086 342007 007 032 002 03
185530 2821N 07932W 8422 01623 0162 +155 +120 352007 007 032 003 03
185600 2821N 07929W 8422 01623 0161 +155 +118 356008 008 032 003 03
185630 2821N 07927W 8422 01623 0159 +160 +109 359009 009 033 001 03
185700 2821N 07924W 8424 01621 0160 +156 +123 006010 012 032 002 03
185730 2821N 07922W 8425 01619 0161 +153 +133 016011 011 032 001 00
185800 2821N 07919W 8420 01623 0156 +157 +127 008010 011 031 002 00
185830 2821N 07917W 8434 01610 0160 +152 +134 009011 011 030 002 03
185900 2821N 07914W 8419 01623 0158 +151 +134 007011 011 030 003 03
185930 2822N 07912W 8424 01618 0158 +152 +134 009012 013 029 003 03
190000 2822N 07909W 8428 01615 0157 +152 +135 004012 013 029 002 03
190030 2822N 07907W 8422 01617 0158 +149 +139 005012 012 027 002 00
190100 2822N 07904W 8425 01616 0157 +151 +136 004012 013 026 002 03
190130 2822N 07902W 8425 01613 0155 +152 +128 008012 013 027 004 03
190200 2822N 07859W 8424 01615 0156 +150 +135 007015 016 026 003 03
190230 2822N 07857W 8423 01616 0156 +149 +134 002014 014 028 001 03
$$
last position in red

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181913
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 10 20110718
190300 2821N 07854W 8424 01616 0156 +149 +125 001012 013 026 003 00
190330 2821N 07852W 8426 01613 0158 +147 +132 009012 013 028 001 00
190400 2821N 07850W 8425 01615 0155 +150 +134 010015 015 028 002 03
190430 2821N 07847W 8424 01615 0154 +150 +138 011015 016 029 001 00
190500 2820N 07845W 8423 01615 0156 +150 +135 011014 014 027 002 00
190530 2820N 07842W 8424 01613 0154 +151 +129 007012 013 028 002 03
190600 2820N 07840W 8424 01613 0152 +155 +127 353012 012 026 003 03
190630 2819N 07837W 8425 01612 0152 +151 +128 351012 012 019 001 00
190700 2818N 07835W 8425 01611 0148 +157 +125 353013 013 022 000 00
190730 2818N 07833W 8422 01613 0146 +160 +120 350014 015 021 000 03
190800 2818N 07833W 8422 01613 0149 +157 +116 005013 013 018 000 03
190830 2817N 07828W 8425 01611 0148 +156 +119 013013 014 021 000 03
190900 2817N 07825W 8422 01612 0148 +156 +118 011014 014 023 000 03
190930 2817N 07823W 8424 01610 0149 +154 +126 004013 013 024 000 03
191000 2817N 07821W 8425 01607 0152 +148 +128 006014 014 025 000 00
191030 2817N 07818W 8423 01610 0150 +149 +127 006015 015 025 000 00
191100 2817N 07816W 8425 01607 0148 +150 +132 008015 016 023 000 03
191130 2817N 07813W 8428 01604 0147 +152 +130 013016 017 025 000 03
191200 2817N 07811W 8421 01610 0145 +150 +127 014017 018 025 001 03
191230 2817N 07808W 8425 01605 0145 +150 +127 013016 016 027 000 03
$$
;

nw edge of storm

[NDG]

Looks like an eye is popping out.

[hurricanefloyd5]

did it wobble?

[Frank2]

An eye-like feature is becoming apparent:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

but the mean motion is still slowly (and hopefully) towards the NNE...

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 181923
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 11 20110718
191300 2817N 07806W 8424 01604 0145 +146 +133 012016 016 027 000 03
191330 2816N 07804W 8425 01601 0146 +143 +137 006017 018 026 000 03
191400 2816N 07801W 8425 01601 0144 +145 +137 007020 021 027 000 00
191430 2815N 07759W 8434 01591 0146 +142 +141 011021 021 026 000 00
191500 2815N 07757W 8439 01583 0139 +142 //// 010022 023 025 000 01
191530 2815N 07755W 8429 01587 0133 +142 //// 008022 023 027 000 01
191600 2815N 07753W 8429 01585 0129 +149 +138 007022 022 028 000 00
191630 2815N 07751W 8430 01584 0127 +150 +138 005022 022 029 000 00
191700 2815N 07749W 8430 01582 0124 +152 +134 007024 025 029 001 00
191730 2815N 07748W 8429 01582 0121 +155 +127 007027 027 030 000 03
191800 2814N 07746W 8426 01582 0117 +159 +122 007028 029 029 000 00
191830 2814N 07744W 8429 01579 0114 +162 +118 012031 033 031 001 03
191900 2814N 07742W 8430 01577 0112 +163 +118 014031 031 033 000 03
191930 2814N 07742W 8430 01577 0111 +161 +122 022031 032 032 001 00
192000 2814N 07739W 8429 01574 0104 +169 +116 017033 036 034 000 00
192030 2814N 07737W 8428 01571 0106 +155 +140 023035 038 034 001 03
192100 2814N 07735W 8432 01566 0104 +154 +146 021035 037 035 000 03
192130 2813N 07733W 8423 01572 0103 +151 //// 012033 034 034 000 01
192200 2813N 07732W 8429 01566 0101 +153 +144 008033 035 035 001 03
192230 2812N 07730W 8435 01555 0092 +164 +130 005037 038 037 004 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Pressure down to 996mb, unflagged 59 knot surface winds.

[ConvergenceZone]

That's my kind of storm! if it can reach a hurricane strength yet be no threat to land anywhere. Go Bret!

[Riptide]

It's hard to believe that the LLC is really under the MLC but the banding that is occurring is really impressive.

[wxman57]

Pressure down to 996mb, unflagged 59 knot surface winds.

Yep, NHC will most likely go 55kts on the 21Z intensity and forecast 65-70 kts for tomorrow. Probably 65 kts.

[artist]

west dashed line is 80.00W
east dashed line is 75.00W
north dashed line is 30.00N
south dashed line is 25.00N

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181933
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 12 20110718
192300 2812N 07728W 8429 01559 0098 +145 //// 007032 034 041 004 01
192330 2811N 07726W 8424 01561 0097 +142 //// 007028 031 041 005 01
192400 2811N 07724W 8434 01545 0080 +157 +146 354033 036 049 009 00
192430 2811N 07722W 8428 01544 0067 +167 +138 352037 039 051 010 00
192500 2810N 07720W 8432 01532 0072 +147 //// 358034 036 052 011 01
192530 2810N 07719W 8426 01537 0066 +152 //// 003040 041 052 014 05
192600 2809N 07717W 8440 01517 //// +134 //// 355041 047 061 032 05
192630 2809N 07715W 8420 01529 //// +141 //// 009051 055 058 015 01
192700 2808N 07713W 8430 01505 //// +155 //// 009035 042 058 011 01
192730 2808N 07711W 8419 01505 0001 +189 +171 005038 040 059 003 00
192800 2807N 07709W 8433 01483 9981 +206 +152 356030 035 051 001 03
192830 2807N 07707W 8426 01484 9975 +200 +158 338018 023 028 000 03
192900 2807N 07706W 8430 01472 9965 +209 +153 281006 008 017 001 03
192930 2808N 07704W 8429 01477 9972 +204 +145 190004 005 018 000 03
193000 2810N 07703W 8428 01476 9973 +201 +147 116007 008 017 001 00
193030 2811N 07702W 8432 01473 9974 +198 +159 105014 016 022 003 00
193100 2813N 07702W 8433 01473 9972 +203 +158 105020 022 022 002 03
193130 2814N 07702W 8433 01478 9986 +185 +171 084025 030 /// /// 03
193200 2814N 07704W 8426 01487 9991 +179 +179 061030 032 /// /// 03
193230 2813N 07705W 8429 01487 9991 +184 +168 047025 029 029 000 03
$$
;red is wind speed in knots flight level

[mascpa]

It has been raining most of the day in the Jupiter Farms area. Town of Jupiter ... not seen a drop yet.

[Weatherfreak000]

Beautiful storm. So very much different from the 2005 Bret.

[artist]

It has been raining most of the day in the Jupiter Farms area. Town of Jupiter ... not seen a drop yet.

yeah, we've had it off and on here in the Acreage today. Just light rain or sprinkles today though, unlike yesterday with deludges.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181943
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 13 20110718
193300 2811N 07706W 8433 01478 9990 +180 +172 021016 017 025 001 03
193330 2809N 07706W 8422 01487 9984 +186 +161 009015 017 021 002 03
193400 2808N 07706W 8433 01475 9975 +197 +160 332013 015 018 002 00
193430 2806N 07705W 8425 01481 9970 +205 +155 283016 019 021 000 03
193500 2805N 07703W 8431 01475 9968 +210 +153 262025 027 020 002 00
193530 2803N 07702W 8432 01478 9976 +204 +152 253026 027 028 001 00
193600 2802N 07701W 8430 01483 9997 +170 +162 247027 029 032 006 03
193630 2801N 07659W 8441 01475 9991 +190 +155 237036 041 033 005 03
193700 2800N 07658W 8413 01513 9995 +198 +155 240043 047 030 001 00
193730 2759N 07657W 8429 01500 0003 +196 +157 237054 057 038 001 03
193800 2757N 07655W 8440 01498 0015 +191 +151 231059 061 046 001 03
193830 2756N 07654W 8425 01521 0028 +182 +153 231060 061 047 000 03
193900 2755N 07653W 8430 01522 0038 +180 +152 229061 062 047 000 03
193930 2754N 07651W 8425 01534 0047 +177 +150 229060 060 044 000 03
194000 2753N 07650W 8428 01540 0058 +173 +150 230059 060 042 001 00
194030 2752N 07649W 8430 01543 0061 +186 +123 232060 060 041 001 00
194100 2751N 07647W 8422 01559 0072 +178 +124 231056 058 040 000 03
194130 2749N 07646W 8429 01557 0079 +176 +121 232055 055 038 001 03
194200 2748N 07645W 8429 01562 0088 +169 +134 233055 055 035 000 00
194230 2747N 07643W 8425 01571 0094 +168 +121 233053 054 033 000 03
$$
;

[Ivanhater]

Another big hot tower going off on the southern side of the forming eyewall. This could become a hurricane while recon is out there.

[Riptide]

Another big hot tower going off on the southern side of the forming eyewall. This could become a hurricane while recon is out there.

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39 ... Q2ixeH.jpg[/img]

Imagine what it looks like from the recon aircraft.

[artist]

the third from last column is the wind speed in knots at the surface.
6th column from the left is the pressure measured. If it leads with 00, then it is 100? , ? mark being what they last number is.
If it reads 09?? then the pressure in down in the 900's.
The very last column is for error codes when I areading has been flagged as suspect.