ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Ivanhater]

Not linear anymore.

No sir

[shaggy]

Sorry for a rambling post but i'm just waking up and trying to catch up. It appears the CMC and the GFS have stayed in their camps on some sort of system getting into the SW Atlantic and a slow recurve type look to them. Todays 12z run seems to suggest a building ridge to the north of the system over new england near the end of the runs? Euro still shows a weak system that tends to make it further west?

[Nimbus]

The intensity forecast is always the toughest. I really hope this doesn't get as big as Floyd, Gilbert or Katrina. Storms like that can make an entire city unlivable for a couple years.

[pgoss11]

Yes indeed.. a busy week coming up and a busy next couple of months

[northjaxpro]

91L is definitely not linear now. It is looking more and more impressive as time progresses this afternoon.

[SFLcane]

Looks like a TD that's approaching TS strength now. NHC should upgrade at 4pm. Will be a quickly-developing TS in the morning. And the one just moving off Africa will be Franklin, most likely.

Lid has blown off folks...6 named systems by the start of August is insane

Fine with me if the general pattern in terms of the US continues to favor recurve from these cv waves.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thankfully the navy nogaps is a horrible model.

true....I post it because Ivan posts the NAM..... I figured if he can post an ultra horrible model I would join him.....

We all from time to time mess with each other about this model or that, but at any given time one day one of these will be correct.

[SFLcane]

BAMs really receded on their 18z run, with none of them showing clear recurve unlike the previous run.

?

[Zampanò]

She's waking up

On the wrong side of the bed, no less. Powerful storms are always interesting to watch, but in this case it's bittersweet -- someone's luck is about to run out.

[Rgv20]

Starting to lift up at 168 hours but the short term trend is further south and west in the Caribbean with that being the case, the trough is going to need to come in stronger in future runs to fully pick this up. Regardless, the Islands better get ready for a strenghtening Hurricane passing through imo....she is waking up today.

Hmm I remember Emily of 2005 who at first was expected to move north right thru Puerto Rico but never did.

Here is a quote from NHC discussion of Emily 2005

EMILY CONTINUES ON A STUBBORN WESTWARD TRACK...270/17. THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE TRACK
MODELS HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET. CLEARLY THERE HAS BEEN MORE RIDGING
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAN EXPECTED. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS
BOUNDED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET ON THE NORTH...AND NOGAPS ON THE
SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.


In my opinion a track thru the Caribbean remains a possibility.

[Evil Jeremy]

BAMs really receded on their 18z run, with none of them showing clear recurve unlike the previous run.

?

You know, the BAMs changed a second time once the map updated to include all the 12z models. Perhaps the 18z BAMs were reran or something, but they were different about half an hour ago.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro.... Jeanne track ??

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps...Across South FL and up the west side of the state...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

BAMs really receded on their 18z run, with none of them showing clear recurve unlike the previous run.

?

You know, the BAMs changed a second time once the map updated to include all the 12z models. Perhaps the 18z BAMs were reran or something, but they were different about half an hour ago.

Frames 17 through 19...

they adjusted the position... ENE of the previous run...

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=91

[SeminoleWind]

Euro.... Jeanne track ??

was thinking the same thing when i looked at it...

[Recurve]

Just stating the obvious, but recurve timing is a concern farther down the line, with the OBX, or Keys and South Florida, and the Gulf Coast in the path of many recurving storms. Newer members might not pick up on the subtleties of some of the comments.

An early recurve from a strong trough in western Atlantic might be good for almost everybody (except Antilles and perhaps Bermuda), a later recurve not so much.

Looks like we're going to have some kind of a ridge to contend with and won't be seeing a strong recurve-inducing trough in the 60 to 70 west latitude, if I've gotten the discussion on models right. I'm trying not to look at development and short-term now, more the continental synoptic setup. And naturally concerned for the islands first.

East coast and Gulf Coast should look at long range and not forget this system until there's strong indications it, whatever it becomes, will get picked up east of the Bahamas. Don't know when we'll know that for fairly certain.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[shaggy]

This storm reminds us of alot of tracks from different storms. Jeanne, Bertha, Marilyn and so on but it doesn't mean its going to do anything similiar to any of those storms. Thats what makes this so interesting because this storm is going to do what this storm is going to do not what those storms did. I guess in a few years we can all sit here and say "gee this system reminds me of emily of 2011".

[wzrgirl1]

12Z Nogaps...Across South FL and up the west side of the state...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Gulp.

[wxman57]

Fine with me if the general pattern in terms of the US continues to favor recurve from these cv waves.

Don't count on that, as the Aug-Oct pattern favors development farther west, putting FL and the Carolinas under the gun.

[hurricanedude]

Dont say Carolinas...as this usually includes the Virginia Tidewater.....