ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthDadeFish]

The G-IV flew out of Tampa yesterday evening. First 7 dropsondes were from northern Andros Island due east to 66W. Plane turned SSW to about 150 miles NE of eastern DR dropping 2 dropsondes. Then west to the Turks and Caicos dropping another couple. Then starting near the northern Haiti coast the plane did a big clockwise circle around the DR to as far south as 15N then back up west of Haiti to just east of Cuba, dropping sondes 12-26. North to southern Bahamas then west to the Keys, dropping sondes 27-30. Data would not have made the 00Z runs.

Thanks for the info! I just watched a video online of Michael Brennan from the NHC talking about track and computer models, and he mentioned that some studies show the G-IV data can reduce track forecast error by up to 25%. The G-IV data is always nice to have!

[WYNweather]

Long time reader first post.

As for those surprised with no watches for SFL yet. Too much on the line in tourist dollars. Too many questions with this storm. Wrong forecast will scare general tourist away. = Less sales tax $$$.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well she is finally moving WNW. I think she is starting to make the turn.

I think i've been hearing this for the last two days!!!

SFT

[fox13weather]

Remember....tropical storm/hurricane impacts for the western side of a storm are almost always over stated. If Emily misses the east coast of Florida by as little as 50 miles, the impacts to the Florida mainland will be minimal.

[wxman57]

Let me ask you as far as intensity goes if emily emerges with her circulation intact do you think there is a shot of emily becoming minimal hurricane as the hwrf/gfdl suggest before making its closest approach to the florida coastline.

Hard to say. Starting out so disorganized with minimal inflow is not the situation I'd look for to predict rapid intensification north of Cuba. I wouldn't rule out hurricane intensity. Heck, the NHC forecast is 60 kts now as it passes south Fl. Typical error is about 10-15 kts per day. I'd say tropical storm and probably a hurricane watch is in order for SE FL, as Emily is within the required 48 hours of possibly impacting the area. I realize that such watches would require counties to mobilize and prepare for such a possibility. Can't be certain they won't need to if the track shifts west just a hair.

[SouthFLTropics]

Long time reader first post.

As for those surprised with no watches for SFL yet. Too much on the line in tourist dollars. Too many questions with this storm. Wrong forecast will scare general tourist away. = Less sales tax $$$.

Yeah...The last thing we want here in FLA is a premature evacuation!

SFT

[RL3AO]

Remember....tropical storm/hurricane impacts for the western side of a storm are almost always over stated. If Emily misses the east coast of Florida by as little as 50 miles, the impacts to the Florida mainland will be minimal.

Correct. Right now (obviously will change before any approach to Florida)

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

[ObsessedMiami]

Long time reader first post.

As for those surprised with no watches for SFL yet. Too much on the line in tourist dollars. Too many questions with this storm. Wrong forecast will scare general tourist away. = Less sales tax $$$.

The last couple of times we have had a tropical storm warning here in Miami they ended up being sunny days with only broken overcast. The average Joe on the street thinks it's all a conspiracy between the Home Depot and the NHC and doesn't listen anymore. So the NHC is darned if they do and darned if they dont issue watches. I dont blame them for holding off on this mess.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Remember....tropical storm/hurricane impacts for the western side of a storm are almost always over stated. If Emily misses the east coast of Florida by as little as 50 miles, the impacts to the Florida mainland will be minimal.

Bingo... Floyd came with in 90 miles or so of my front door and never saw a shower..And he was a Cat 4...So for something of this caliber passing to the east FL would be lucky to see the clouds from the beach....

If anything it would creat NW winds and prob be close to 100 here on the ECFL..

[KWT]

Remember....tropical storm/hurricane impacts for the western side of a storm are almost always over stated. If Emily misses the east coast of Florida by as little as 50 miles, the impacts to the Florida mainland will be minimal.

I think that along with the confidence shown by the models for a recurve that is currently stopping the NHC from hoisting watches...but I don't think they can get away with it uch more if it keeps moving between 280-300 lie it has been...

[wxman57]

Remember....tropical storm/hurricane impacts for the western side of a storm are almost always over stated. If Emily misses the east coast of Florida by as little as 50 miles, the impacts to the Florida mainland will be minimal.

That's true. However the current forecast takes the center only 80 miles offshore. How likely is it that the NHC's track forecast is within 30-40 miles of the actual point side-to-side along the track at 48 hrs, particularly with such an erratic storm?

[SouthDadeFish]

Supposedly the G-IV data was used in the 00Z runs last night. It used 41 dropwindsonde data. Look under dropw. Link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... mary.shtml

[SouthFLTropics]

Remember....tropical storm/hurricane impacts for the western side of a storm are almost always over stated. If Emily misses the east coast of Florida by as little as 50 miles, the impacts to the Florida mainland will be minimal.

Bingo... Floyd came with in 90 miles or so of my front door and never saw a shower..And he was a Cat 4...So for something of this caliber passing to the east FL would be lucky to see the clouds from the beach....

Were you in the same Stuart, Florida I was in??? I mean it wasn't that bad but we still had some pretty good squalls in Rocky Point. Watched the screened enclosure over the pool lift up and down during the winds.

SFT

[sunnyday]

So IF Em is starting to make the turn at any minute (who knows?) or IF she is going to be well away from the SE Fl coast (50-60 miles), why would they need to issue any watches there except in the case of error in calculations or predictions about where she is going? I still wonder if anything will be left of the unorganized mess.
This is, of course, my own opinion. See NHC products for accurate info.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Remember....tropical storm/hurricane impacts for the western side of a storm are almost always over stated. If Emily misses the east coast of Florida by as little as 50 miles, the impacts to the Florida mainland will be minimal.

Bingo... Floyd came with in 90 miles or so of my front door and never saw a shower..And he was a Cat 4...So for something of this caliber passing to the east FL would be lucky to see the clouds from the beach....

Were you in the same Stuart, Florida I was in??? I mean it wasn't that bad but we still some pretty good squalls in Rocky Point. Watched the screened enclosure over the pull lift up and down during the winds.

SFT

Yep in Danforth in Palm City at the time...You were on water...may have been a breeze but Ive seen worse on summer afternoons...

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFS pretty much loses Emily through 24 hours, but looks like a stronger ridge so far.

[Kory]

There is definitely some northern movement with this system now just by looking at visible satelitte. Plus, she looks very ragged on the left side, so even if she passes close to the Florida coast, don't expect much in the way of tropical storm winds or heavy rain, unless she goes through rapid intensification. Right now I don't see RI being an issue due to dry air around the storm.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Little low level turning feature swhot out of the far west side of the convection in the last few hours, looks like its still got several little circulations trying to get going every now and then...for the most part though at least the LLc is a little better defined now.

systems air is coming right over the highest ground of Hispaniola, really does need to get clear of it soon if its not going to start doing sginficant damage...

Wonder whether we will see another little strip show from Emily later lol?!

[fox13weather]

Remember....tropical storm/hurricane impacts for the western side of a storm are almost always over stated. If Emily misses the east coast of Florida by as little as 50 miles, the impacts to the Florida mainland will be minimal.

I think that along with the confidence shown by the models for a recurve that is currently stopping the NHC from hoisting watches...but I don't think they can get away with it uch more if it keeps moving between 280-300 lie it has been...

They can put up watches all they want ...but even a CAT 1 paralleling the east coast of Florida by as little as 50 miles off shore would not be a huge deal for the mainland, just a lot of over hyped doom and gloom coverage. Unless the eyewall touches the coast, a storm staying off shore to the east of Florida is not a big deal. Remember, storm surge flooding would not be a big factor so it would be mostly about the wind....

[SFLcane]

Remember....tropical storm/hurricane impacts for the western side of a storm are almost always over stated. If Emily misses the east coast of Florida by as little as 50 miles, the impacts to the Florida mainland will be minimal.

I think that along with the confidence shown by the models for a recurve that is currently stopping the NHC from hoisting watches...but I don't think they can get away with it uch more if it keeps moving between 280-300 lie it has been...

They can put up watches all they want ...but even a CAT 1 paralleling the east coast of Florida by as little as 50 miles off shore would not be a huge deal for the mainland, just a lot of over hyped doom and gloom coverage. Unless the eyewall touches the coast, a storm staying off shore to the east of Florida is not a big deal. Remember, storm surge flooding would not be a big factor so it would be mostly about the wind....

Thats all you need...It's hot enough as it is in sfl.