ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think those are just some boundaries from the collapsing convection. Based on the visible I think the center is near:

http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/6279/ztemp.png

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

I agree I can see so low level turning there

If that is where the center is, then we still have westward movement.

[wzrgirl1]

Did she dip south a tad???

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Did she dip south a tad???

if the center is actually where they indicated on the map above, it appears that way.

[tolakram]

Did she dip south a tad???

I would not have any confidence in my center location. We need a plane.

[Steve H.]

That's IF she gets free of Haiti. Still think there's an llc under there somewhere. If she survives to get past Haiti there certainly is an oportunity for her to intensify IMO. We should know by later tonight.

[KWT]

If that is the center then I've got my doubts that its a closed system, just looks like a sharp wave if thats the area you are all watching...

As per normal lets wait for recon to show where this is at...

[Weatherboy1]

GFS now signalling a hard left turn for the vorticity center of Emily even as it loses much of the system at the surface. This shows a "landfall" of that center in Palm Beach County, so if the other models follow, we could see a shift W in the forecast track and TS watches for SE FL at 5, in my opinion ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[wzrgirl1]

Did she dip south a tad???

if the center is actually where they indicated on the map above, it appears that way.

Craziest storm ever!! What a woman!

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041630
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 04 20110804
162030 1717N 06638W 3926 07745 0434 -180 -342 211017 017 /// /// 03
162100 1716N 06640W 3926 07750 0434 -180 -312 211017 018 /// /// 03
162130 1715N 06643W 3926 07749 0434 -180 -294 215018 018 /// /// 03
162200 1715N 06645W 3926 07749 0435 -180 -307 217018 019 /// /// 03
162230 1714N 06648W 3926 07747 0434 -182 -309 216019 019 /// /// 03
162300 1713N 06650W 3926 07746 0433 -185 -277 212019 019 /// /// 03
162330 1713N 06652W 3926 07748 0433 -181 -284 212018 019 /// /// 03
162400 1712N 06655W 3926 07752 0433 -180 -311 209018 018 /// /// 03
162430 1712N 06657W 3926 07751 0432 -180 -284 210018 018 /// /// 03
162500 1711N 06700W 3926 07745 0432 -180 -248 204018 018 /// /// 03
162530 1710N 06702W 3926 07747 0431 -180 -275 201018 019 /// /// 03
162600 1710N 06705W 3926 07747 0432 -176 -282 200019 019 /// /// 03
162630 1709N 06707W 3926 07746 0432 -178 -268 198020 020 /// /// 03
162700 1708N 06710W 3926 07744 0431 -180 -263 197020 021 /// /// 03
162730 1708N 06712W 3926 07748 0432 -178 -258 197021 021 /// /// 03
162800 1707N 06714W 3926 07745 0431 -176 -260 201020 021 /// /// 03
162830 1706N 06717W 3926 07745 0430 -175 -246 203021 021 /// /// 03
162900 1706N 06719W 3926 07745 0430 -177 -247 201021 022 /// /// 03
162930 1705N 06722W 3926 07746 0429 -176 -246 202021 021 /// /// 03
163000 1705N 06724W 3926 07746 0430 -175 -227 203019 020 /// /// 03
$$
;

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041630
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 04 20110804
162030 1717N 06638W 3926 07745 0434 -180 -342 211017 017 /// /// 03
162100 1716N 06640W 3926 07750 0434 -180 -312 211017 018 /// /// 03
162130 1715N 06643W 3926 07749 0434 -180 -294 215018 018 /// /// 03
162200 1715N 06645W 3926 07749 0435 -180 -307 217018 019 /// /// 03
162230 1714N 06648W 3926 07747 0434 -182 -309 216019 019 /// /// 03
162300 1713N 06650W 3926 07746 0433 -185 -277 212019 019 /// /// 03
162330 1713N 06652W 3926 07748 0433 -181 -284 212018 019 /// /// 03
162400 1712N 06655W 3926 07752 0433 -180 -311 209018 018 /// /// 03
162430 1712N 06657W 3926 07751 0432 -180 -284 210018 018 /// /// 03
162500 1711N 06700W 3926 07745 0432 -180 -248 204018 018 /// /// 03
162530 1710N 06702W 3926 07747 0431 -180 -275 201018 019 /// /// 03
162600 1710N 06705W 3926 07747 0432 -176 -282 200019 019 /// /// 03
162630 1709N 06707W 3926 07746 0432 -178 -268 198020 020 /// /// 03
162700 1708N 06710W 3926 07744 0431 -180 -263 197020 021 /// /// 03
162730 1708N 06712W 3926 07748 0432 -178 -258 197021 021 /// /// 03
162800 1707N 06714W 3926 07745 0431 -176 -260 201020 021 /// /// 03
162830 1706N 06717W 3926 07745 0430 -175 -246 203021 021 /// /// 03
162900 1706N 06719W 3926 07745 0430 -177 -247 201021 022 /// /// 03
162930 1705N 06722W 3926 07746 0429 -176 -246 202021 021 /// /// 03
163000 1705N 06724W 3926 07746 0430 -175 -227 203019 020 /// /// 03
$$

[jonj2040]

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[Bocadude85]

lol I was thinking to myself this morning that she would do the same thing she did yesterday.. though this time I am not sure she will survive.

[stormreader]

You know I think Emily might be a good lesson for all of us in regards to the models. Models had quite a bit of difficulty during the tumultuous 04-05 period. But they've done better since. They handled the 08 season (Gustav-Ike) reasonably well. The 09-10 period was a slow one for the US. Thats important because this is where the models earn their rep (as storms move from the tropics to temperate regions forecasting becomes more difficult compared to a storm moving west in the deep tropics of the Carribean or one that has already made its recurve 400 miles east of the US). This storm shows us that one can still envision a scenario where models can perform poorly and an important storm could strike part of the US coast without the type of warning we might expect.

[Blown Away]

GFS now signalling a hard left turn for the vorticity center of Emily even as it loses much of the system at the surface. This shows a "landfall" of that center in Palm Beach County, so if the other models follow, we could see a shift W in the forecast track and TS watches for SE FL at 5, in my opinion ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

That's hardly a landfall, GFS saying bye bye to Emily.

[tolakram]

Ok, sticking to the MIMIC-TPW again,

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Looks like Emily has collapsed and the best rotation is now moving over Hispaniola, or maybe the eastern tip of Cuba. A MESS!

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041640
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 05 20110804
163030 1704N 06727W 3926 07744 0430 -175 -214 203019 019 /// /// 03
163100 1703N 06729W 3926 07747 0430 -173 -224 202019 020 /// /// 03
163130 1703N 06731W 3926 07739 0429 -175 -217 200020 020 /// /// 03
163200 1702N 06734W 3926 07743 0428 -173 -213 202020 021 /// /// 03
163230 1701N 06736W 3926 07738 0428 -171 -204 204021 021 /// /// 03
163300 1701N 06739W 3926 07741 0428 -175 -207 204022 023 /// /// 03
163330 1700N 06741W 3926 07745 0427 -175 -212 204024 025 /// /// 03
163400 1659N 06744W 3926 07738 0428 -175 -213 204026 026 /// /// 03
163430 1659N 06746W 3926 07741 0427 -175 -213 203026 026 /// /// 03
163500 1658N 06748W 3926 07745 0427 -175 -212 202026 027 /// /// 03
163530 1658N 06751W 3926 07741 0427 -172 -212 200026 026 /// /// 03
163600 1657N 06753W 3926 07741 0426 -170 -211 201025 026 /// /// 03
163630 1656N 06756W 3926 07740 0426 -170 -213 201026 026 /// /// 03
163700 1656N 06758W 3926 07740 0426 -170 -212 200026 027 /// /// 03
163730 1655N 06800W 3926 07742 0426 -170 -209 199027 027 /// /// 03
163800 1654N 06803W 3926 07740 0425 -170 -211 199027 028 /// /// 03
163830 1654N 06805W 3926 07741 0427 -170 -209 198028 028 /// /// 03
163900 1653N 06807W 3926 07745 0427 -170 -209 199027 028 /// /// 03
163930 1653N 06810W 3926 07744 0427 -170 -208 208025 025 /// /// 03
164000 1652N 06812W 3926 07746 0428 -170 -206 212026 026 /// /// 03
$$
;

[ConvergenceZone]

Once Emily is freed from Hispaniola...then the real fun starts.

Yep, it's always fun to watch storms strengthen as they are moving out to sea.....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Not sure if Recon can get close enough to get good readings if she is too close to land. They were able to get a center previously, but only partial flights. Short due to difficulties, but also there are proximity to land issues and dropping big metal chunks from the plane.

[jonj2040]

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[Bocadude85]

I am wondering she she moved over Hispanola?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html