ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthDadeFish]

Ok, sticking to the MIMIC-TPW again,

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

Looks like Emily has collapsed and the best rotation is now moving over Hispaniola, or maybe the eastern tip of Cuba. A MESS!

Wow! Definitely seems that way!

[mutley]

Ok, sticking to the MIMIC-TPW again,

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

Looks like Emily has collapsed and the best rotation is now moving over Hispaniola, or maybe the eastern tip of Cuba. A MESS!

Wow! Definitely seems that way!

Yes, very interesting graphic, to say the least. What the heck just happened?

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, great graphic. Where did Emily go??? Special statement from NHC coming soon?

[Aric Dunn]

Have to agree.. she is looking not so good. I can still see northerly low level flow on the west side. not very much movement has taken place.. could be the beginning of the end... probably wont survive much land interaction in this condition.. especially higher terrain

[tolakram]

Yes, very interesting graphic, to say the least. What the heck just happened?

Not completely unexpected, but here's my take.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


LLC got caught against the high terrain of Hispaniola while the MLC felt the weakness in the ridge and decoupled off to the northwest. The only remaining question is if the MLC can drill back down or if this is the death of Emily.

[Frank2]

It does look to be moving NW finally - hopefully it'll move with increasing speed and be out of the area entirely...

Frank

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041650
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 06 20110804
164030 1651N 06815W 3926 07742 0426 -170 -207 212025 025 /// /// 03
164100 1651N 06817W 3926 07747 0426 -172 -206 210024 025 /// /// 03
164130 1650N 06819W 3926 07741 0425 -175 -205 209025 025 /// /// 03
164200 1650N 06822W 3926 07739 0425 -175 -207 209025 025 /// /// 03
164230 1649N 06824W 3926 07737 0424 -175 -207 208026 026 /// /// 03
164300 1648N 06827W 3926 07740 0424 -175 -207 204026 026 /// /// 03
164330 1648N 06829W 3927 07738 0423 -174 -206 205026 026 /// /// 03
164400 1647N 06831W 3926 07737 0424 -174 -208 205026 026 /// /// 03
164430 1646N 06834W 3926 07736 0424 -172 -206 204026 027 /// /// 03
164500 1646N 06836W 3926 07734 0424 -170 -211 206026 026 /// /// 03
164530 1645N 06839W 3926 07736 0423 -170 -215 205027 027 /// /// 03
164600 1645N 06841W 3925 07743 0424 -170 -209 207027 027 /// /// 03
164630 1644N 06843W 3927 07739 0423 -170 -210 208028 028 /// /// 03
164700 1643N 06846W 3923 07739 0424 -170 -208 209028 028 /// /// 03
164730 1643N 06848W 3927 07736 0422 -170 -207 207028 028 /// /// 03
164800 1642N 06850W 3926 07740 0423 -170 -210 208028 028 /// /// 03
164830 1642N 06853W 3926 07738 0424 -170 -206 209029 029 /// /// 03
164900 1641N 06855W 3925 07738 0423 -170 -204 208029 029 /// /// 03
164930 1640N 06857W 3927 07740 0423 -170 -206 209029 029 /// /// 03
165000 1640N 06900W 3924 07742 0423 -170 -203 209029 030 /// /// 03
$$
;

(thanks for the images jonj!)

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[tolakram]

Check out the zoom 2 loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

See the swirl W/NW of Haiti? See all the arcing low level clouds? We really need recon now.

[Rgv20]

A weak system (Emily weakening again now) will be lead by low level steering, versus the upper level flow. In this case, the upper flow is dominated by the trough/ridge/recurve scenario. The low level flow around Em consists of a weak current heading generally west and west south west. So I would think that should result in a continued very slow, westward motion with her diminished state again.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Forecast steering charts for a shallow system suggest a NW movement followed by more of a turn toward the North by Saturday.

[ozonepete]

Big mess....

[KWT]

That area of rotation to the NE om Cuba does look interesting on that map, its what the CMC was advertising for a while...

Either way its in a while tight spot now...not sure its going to pull through...

[Kory]

Big mess....

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 041615.jpg

Haiti is really messing this system up...

[ozonepete]

Yeah this is the classic mess-job that Hispaniola pulls on Tropical Cyclones.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

How would she get "caught under the ridging"? The steering currents around the current ridge she is following would lead her to follow its periphery, which requires her to follow it west and then to the nw and n and finally ne. The 2 ridges don't connect and she wouldn't simply be "passed on" to the other ridge to follow, especially if she is strengthening and drawn naturally more poleward. Its when a storm is drifting around and not already following a ridge that it can get caught by another ridge's steering flow if I understand it correctly. All that said....there is a possibility what you said can happen if Emily gets left behind during her slow movement/stall and the ridge she has been following regresses to the east or northeast quickly, leaving her behind to wander until she can find another steering pattern to be swept into.

Ah yes, but the steering currents are dynamic! The ridge is building back in as the trough moves away (actually its the same ridge thats pushing the trough away along its NW periphery, HP moves LP areas, not the other way, and LP erodes HP areas)

So as the ridge EXPANDS to the west, the storm "could" be caught under the ridge, and a fairly weak bridge could happen with the death ridge in the SE USA.

Here is the GFS at 12 hours.
Note specifically the isobar labeled 1020 and the one just west. That is the western periphery of the HP primarily responsible for current movement. (see the trough east of Massachusetts, labeled 1008? it extends down to roughly the carolinas and georgia).

Here is the GFS at 24 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024s.gif
Note the same isobar has moved west? Note the trough has lifted out of the carolinas.

This is a delicate dance, and these are only "predictions" by a model, but if that HP were to move much further west at 24 hours than she would continue to move WNW. Remember, HP moves LP, and LP only erodes HP. A storm cannot move directly into a high pressure area.

agree with your theories, however, you are using the GFS to show the ridge future, while the GFS hasn't been batting so well with this setup yet. Maybe shoudl use anothe rmodel, and they are not in agreement with teh far west movement of the ridge to the point it meets the conus ridge. though some do as well.

Aye, GFS track record is poor here. I was using this as an example to show how the ridge expansion might possibly keep her on her current trajectory.

[KWT]

Yep does look like a circulation is starting to form just off the Eastern part of Cuba, could be interesting if any converction tries to form over it...

In its current state its in real trouble...may need for that convection to pluse over to any forming circulation near Cuba...

[mutley]

Yes, very interesting graphic, to say the least. What the heck just happened?

Not completely unexpected, but here's my take.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


LLC got caught against the high terrain of Hispaniola while the MLC felt the weakness in the ridge and decoupled off to the northwest. The only remaining question is if the MLC can drill back down or if this is the death of Emily.

Interesting, and it makes sense of what was seen on that loop. Emily was decapitated. I'm going with "dead".

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z HWRF bombs Emily over the northern Bahamas. Down to 962mb in 60 hours...

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Long time reader first post.

As for those surprised with no watches for SFL yet. Too much on the line in tourist dollars. Too many questions with this storm. Wrong forecast will scare general tourist away. = Less sales tax $$$.

Yeah...The last thing we want here in FLA is a premature evacuation!

SFT

OMG that's the funniest thing I've seen!!!!!!

Not so funny though when they thought hurricane Floyd was going to hit Florida! Sat in traffic for 8 hours to go 4 miles with 10 horses on board.

NO more premature evacuations for me!!

Hmmm, I thought it was the 4 horseman of the apocalypse? Not the 10 horses of the Grim Reaper!

[stormreader]

A weak system (Emily weakening again now) will be lead by low level steering, versus the upper level flow. In this case, the upper flow is dominated by the trough/ridge/recurve scenario. The low level flow around Em consists of a weak current heading generally west and west south west. So I would think that should result in a continued very slow, westward motion with her diminished state again.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Forecast steering charts for a shallow system suggest a NW movement followed by more of a turn toward the North by Saturday.

If this is permanent (open wave), remember we had and experience with that a couple of days ago, but then she reorganized some, I would expect she would elongate north-south and move NW some and then simply be pulled apart as she is affected by the trough and become just a piece of added energy to the trough as she is finally pulled NE.