ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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TreasureIslandFLGal
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#7361 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:02 pm

that would have been a neat trick if Emily could have pulled that off and through her LLC to the Windward passage like that. let's see what she can do (or not) over the next few hours.
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#7362 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:02 pm

About that time???
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#7363 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:02 pm

KWT wrote:That area of rotation to the NE om Cuba does look interesting on that map, its what the CMC was advertising for a while...

Either way its in a while tight spot now...not sure its going to pull through...


Coordinates please?
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#7364 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:02 pm

didn't ukmet show something like that too?
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#7365 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:03 pm

deltadog03 wrote:About that time???


Could we be seeing a post later today from Wxman57 with our friends Capt. Kirk and Dr. McCoy?
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#7366 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:04 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:12Z HWRF bombs Emily over the northern Bahamas. Down to 962mb in 60 hours...


Recurves over the bahamas.
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#7367 Postby artist » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:04 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 041702
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 07 20110804
165030 1639N 06902W 3927 07734 0422 -170 -205 209029 029 /// /// 03
165100 1639N 06905W 3926 07739 0422 -170 -202 208029 030 /// /// 03
165130 1638N 06907W 3925 07743 0423 -170 -201 209029 029 /// /// 03
165200 1637N 06909W 3930 07730 0422 -170 -205 210029 029 /// /// 03
165230 1637N 06912W 3925 07740 0422 -170 -202 209029 030 /// /// 03
165300 1636N 06914W 3925 07740 0422 -170 -206 210029 029 /// /// 03
165330 1635N 06916W 3929 07737 0421 -170 -206 209029 029 /// /// 03
165400 1635N 06919W 3923 07744 0423 -170 -203 211030 031 /// /// 03
165430 1634N 06921W 3926 07734 0421 -170 -205 211031 032 /// /// 03
165500 1634N 06923W 3923 07738 0422 -170 -201 210031 031 /// /// 03
165530 1633N 06926W 3926 07735 0421 -170 -205 210030 031 /// /// 03
165600 1632N 06928W 3926 07735 0420 -170 -204 210032 032 /// /// 03
165630 1632N 06930W 3925 07738 0421 -170 -201 208031 031 /// /// 03
165700 1631N 06933W 3927 07734 0420 -169 -202 207032 033 /// /// 03
165730 1631N 06935W 3926 07736 0421 -165 -208 205032 033 /// /// 03
165800 1630N 06937W 3925 07737 0421 -170 -209 199032 033 /// /// 03
165830 1629N 06940W 3928 07736 0421 -170 -207 201030 031 /// /// 03
165900 1629N 06942W 3926 07743 0421 -170 -210 202028 029 /// /// 03
165930 1628N 06945W 3926 07736 0420 -170 -208 203028 028 /// /// 03
170000 1627N 06947W 3926 07736 0419 -170 -209 202027 027 /// /// 03
$$
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#7368 Postby artist » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:06 pm

didn't they make some changes to the GFS this year?
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#7369 Postby jonj2040 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:06 pm

Image

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7370 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:07 pm

I see distinct mid-level rotation where I circled. Watch the RGB or vis loops. Looks like MLC is over the DR/Haiti border moving NW.

Image
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#7371 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:07 pm

too early to say that Portastorm. not when the water is so warm and therei could be any spin left over
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#7372 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:08 pm

Perhaps daytime heating will cause the airmass over Haiti to become more unstable and save Emily's life?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7373 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:10 pm

Bring in the defibulator...She's coding!!!

SFT
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#7374 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:11 pm

just looked at the visible flash and it appears to me that the LLC is to the SW of the mid level circulation, and hasn't crossed Haiti at all. I suspect it will reveal itself as a nekkid swirl again. the mid level circ does seem to be heading nw over the island.

my old eyes could simply be seeing things though. I need a better quality image to look at with better zoom capability.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7375 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:14 pm

I feel like those guys in the movie twister when they thought they had something going and then it just died out! What a strange system this has been.

SFT
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#7376 Postby artist » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:15 pm

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 041710
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 08 20110804
170030 1627N 06949W 3925 07737 0420 -170 -210 203027 027 /// /// 03
170100 1626N 06952W 3926 07736 0420 -170 -208 202027 027 /// /// 03
170130 1626N 06954W 3929 07732 0419 -170 -209 202025 027 /// /// 03
170200 1625N 06956W 3923 07740 0418 -170 -208 205024 024 /// /// 03
170230 1624N 06959W 3926 07729 0418 -168 -207 203023 024 /// /// 03
170300 1624N 07001W 3925 07733 0418 -168 -204 201023 024 /// /// 03
170330 1623N 07004W 3925 07733 0417 -165 -207 205021 022 /// /// 03
170400 1622N 07006W 3929 07730 0419 -162 -200 210019 020 /// /// 03
170430 1622N 07008W 3927 07731 0421 -165 -192 217020 021 /// /// 03
170500 1621N 07011W 3925 07738 0416 -165 -193 220022 023 /// /// 03
170530 1620N 07013W 3936 07709 0416 -163 -193 217023 023 /// /// 03
170600 1620N 07016W 4074 07454 0402 -148 -187 210025 026 /// /// 03
170630 1619N 07018W 4199 07225 0387 -135 -168 203026 027 /// /// 03
170700 1619N 07020W 4322 07007 0372 -124 -157 203027 027 /// /// 03
170730 1618N 07023W 4439 06801 0358 -111 -144 195029 030 /// /// 03
170800 1617N 07025W 4568 06590 0354 -100 -133 190029 029 /// /// 03
170830 1617N 07027W 4701 06368 0341 -088 -120 190028 028 /// /// 03
170900 1616N 07029W 4841 06150 0334 -077 -107 192029 030 /// /// 03
170930 1616N 07032W 4993 05902 0321 -065 -094 195030 030 /// /// 03
171000 1615N 07034W 5144 05674 0307 -053 -081 199029 029 /// /// 03
$$
;
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#7377 Postby jonj2040 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:15 pm

Image

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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7378 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:16 pm

Too early for the Image ??
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon Discussion

#7379 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:17 pm

Plane is decending. Let's see if they find a closed circulation.
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#7380 Postby Kory » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:17 pm

I think Emily is on her last leg here...
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