ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Airboy]

Recon suggest it could be reformed more south?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

didn't they make some changes to the GFS this year?

yes they did. and because of that, all the models that depend on it will likewise have any biases that the GFS shows this year. hopefully after the few storms we've had and the model performance on them thus far, they can tweak the model(s) before we get into teh heart of the season and have very serious threats to conus.

[ConvergenceZone]

Too early for the ??

Not quite yet. The NHC most likely will drop the current intensity down and probably the
future intensity on the 5 day outlook. Not sure if the winds will still be TS strength,
or if they will downgrade it to a depression. They may take the conservative approach and
keep it a TS

[artist]

didn't they make some changes to the GFS this year?

yes they did. and because of that, all the models that depend on it will likewise have any biases that the GFS shows this year. hopefully after the few storms we've had and the model performance on them thus far, they can tweak the model(s) before we get into teh heart of the season and have very serious threats to conus.

I thought so. Problem is, don't they usually wait until the season is over for any changes?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Recon suggest it could be reformed more south?

There is also a swirl and convection signficantly to the southwest by quite a few miles, but I was having a hard time seeing inflow from all directions. seemed to only have a partial swirl. if that one were to "take over", it is quite a bit south and west and would obviously change the game.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041720
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 09 20110804
171030 1614N 07036W 5264 05486 0295 -045 -070 200029 031 /// /// 03
171100 1614N 07038W 5383 05310 0286 -034 -062 200029 030 /// /// 03
171130 1613N 07040W 5529 05097 0127 -023 -053 195027 027 /// /// 03
171200 1613N 07042W 5700 04855 0129 -008 -039 187029 030 /// /// 03
171230 1612N 07044W 5889 04576 0127 +001 -027 189029 030 /// /// 03
171300 1612N 07046W 6087 04329 0152 +014 -013 180026 027 /// /// 03
171330 1611N 07048W 6277 04081 0151 +029 -001 175026 027 /// /// 03
171400 1611N 07050W 6434 03878 0149 +042 +007 177024 025 /// /// 03
171430 1610N 07052W 6595 03676 0147 +056 +011 175024 025 /// /// 03
171500 1610N 07054W 6754 03482 0149 +066 +016 174024 024 /// /// 03
171530 1609N 07056W 6920 03277 0149 +079 +021 172023 023 /// /// 03
171600 1608N 07058W 7088 03079 0142 +094 +024 171023 023 /// /// 03
171630 1608N 07100W 7274 02857 0141 +107 +031 170022 023 /// /// 03
171700 1607N 07102W 7480 02624 0146 +114 +034 166022 023 /// /// 03
171730 1607N 07104W 7641 02443 0145 +125 +037 164021 021 /// /// 03
171800 1606N 07106W 7759 02322 0147 +134 +038 161020 020 /// /// 03
171830 1606N 07107W 7857 02214 0150 +142 +037 158018 019 /// /// 03
171900 1606N 07109W 8051 02008 0150 +153 +039 158019 019 025 001 00
171930 1605N 07111W 8256 01787 0145 +170 +041 163020 021 023 001 00
172000 1605N 07112W 8405 01634 0141 +178 +044 167022 022 022 000 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

12Z HWRF bombs Emily over the northern Bahamas. Down to 962mb in 60 hours...

Can you provide the link, it makes it easier for everybody. Thanks...

[sunnyday]

Poof. Emily was a dud from the beginning. My opinion only. See NHC products for accurate info.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

any chance of seeing this in a zoomed out mode so we have some land to judge position by?

[Kory]

Recon suggest it could be reformed more south?

There is also a swirl and convection signficantly to the southwest by quite a few miles, but I was having a hard time seeing inflow from all directions. seemed to only have a partial swirl. if that one were to "take over", it is quite a bit south and west and would obviously change the game.

I don't see a swirl, but the MLC seems to be moving NW to NNW into the Domican Republic/Haiti border.

[mutley]

Too early for the ??

Maybe, but only because Emily is still going through her death throes. But, keep it handy.

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 041722
XXAA 54174 99164 70701 04460 99013 29039 13521 00111 28035 13520
92800 22836 14528 85534 19658 15027 70178 09226 18026 50589 06119
19029 40761 15727 20023 88999 77999
31313 09608 81704
61616 AF306 1205A EMILY OB 02
62626 SPL 1643N07012W 1711 MBL WND 13521 AEV 20802 DLM WND 17027
012393 WL150 14020 084 REL 1637N07011W 170406 SPG 1643N07012W 171
140 =
XXBB 54178 99164 70701 04460 00013 29039 11917 22434 22850 19658
33761 13019 44493 06519 55393 16526
21212 00013 13521 11991 14019 22896 15531 33850 15027 44781 15525
55695 18025 66658 16527 77633 18528 88558 17533 99434 20033 11403
19524 22393 21019
31313 09608 81704
61616 AF306 1205A EMILY OB 02
62626 SPL 1643N07012W 1711 MBL WND 13521 AEV 20802 DLM WND 17027
012393 WL150 14020 084 REL 1637N07011W 170406 SPG 1643N07012W 171
140 =

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z HWRF bombs Emily over the northern Bahamas. Down to 962mb in 60 hours...

Can you provide the link, it makes it easier for everybody. Thanks...

I agree with this. It would be great if we post links to the source so we can view it. You don't have to upload graphics or images, just post a link to the source. That would be much appreciated

[KWT]

I think our old friend shear is what is forcing the MLC towards Hispaniola at the moment.

I'm just keeping an eye on the area near Cuba for now just incase it startis rotating with abit more strength...

Ps, I think I can see the LLC's far western section now rotating away, not really moving anywhere for now...

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[artist]

is this it?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Any member who have questions to who are posting the data,you can ask them here,thank you.

[Tropics Guy]

IMO Don't think she's dead yet, last few days she's almost fallen apart, only to come back at night with impressive convection. Also the high mountains of Hispanola are disrupting the overall circulation along with dry air. Once she clears Haiti conditions will improve for reorganization.

TG

[Ground_Zero_92]

I think our old friend shear is what is forcing the MLC towards Hispaniola at the moment.

I'm just keeping an eye on the area near Cuba for now just incase it startis rotating with abit more strength...

Ps, I think I can see the LLC's far western section now rotating away, not really moving anywhere for now...

KWT, can you post a link to what your seeing?

[KWT]

Looks to me like the HWRF is abit in lala land right now, I'd be mighty surprised if this system was where it says it'll be by06z tomorrow, its going to need the MLC to relocate and develop a new LLC for that to happen.