ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave]

Next mission later tonight...

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 25/0245Z
D. 16.9N 83.3W
E. 25/0530Z TO 25/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

[cycloneye]

Next mission will depart at 10:45 PM EDT so who will stay up and post the data?

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 25/0245Z
D. 16.9N 83.3W
E. 25/0530Z TO 25/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[SunnyThoughts]

Looking good for sure.

[gatorcane]

well if the GFS is poofing it, I wouldn't entirely throw out this scenario especially if there is 50K shear that sets in on it. It could literally rip her to shreads as fast as she is organizing today. I have seen situations you would not think could happen that models insist would happen that actually came to fruition.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

It seems to me that the models that had strengthened Rina (Hwrf and Gfdl) are the ones that let it get picked up by the front and taken some degree of NE. The models that keep it weak or actually disapated it (GFS, Euro, Canadian) keep it in the Caribbean. Since the storm is already stronger then the latter models forecasted and since Rina is forecasted by the NHC to reach Cat 3 I would bet on the GFD and HWRF's solutions as a stronger storm will be influenced by the strong west to east flow in the southern gulf that all the models forecast. It will be interesting to see if these others models follow suit when (and if) they are initialized with the correct strength.

[caneseddy]

well if the GFS is poofing it, I wouldn't entirely throw out this scenario especially if there is 50K shear that sets in on it. It could literally rip her to shreads. I have seen situations you would not think could happen that models insist would happen that actually came to fruition.

GFS had it poofing yesterday...latest run (12z) had Rina making a loop and into Belize as a hurricane

[maxx9512]

Is this right? One of the local TV meteorologists just said if Rina is a strong storm she should pass to the south of here in SWFla and Fla. all together. I'm not sure of this. Is it not stronger more poleward (not depending on fronts etc.). Why would it stay more south if it is a strong storm? I know about the front coming and turning it, but why would its strength keep it south? Maybe I'm missing something but I could be wrong. Again!

[AdamFirst]

18z GFS is rolling now.

Can't post because I'm on my phone

[cycloneye]

IMO,Rina will get around 13 units of ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) Follow the ACE numbers at the 2011 ACE Thread at Talking Tropics forum

[Ntxw]

She almost reminds me of Paula last year close track, size, and intensity.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

From Jeff Masters this afternoon;


A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased. The latest 8 am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both predict that Rina will pass through the Yucatan Channel on Thursday and make landfall on Friday in the Florida Keys or extreme Southwest Florida, south of Naples. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict a weaker storm, and keep Rina trapped in the Caribbean. I think it is more likely that Rina will pass through the Keys. If Rina does make it to the Keys, it would likely be as a tropical storm, since wind shear, dry air, and possible land interaction with Western Cuba and Mexico would potentially knock down the storm's strength.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like Rina is set to put on quite a show, hopefully she stays away from Florida and doesn't affect anyone on the Yucatan too bad. Unfortunately I think she's going to absolutely bomb out over the NW Caribbean.

[Rainband]

Is this right? One of the local TV meteorologists just said if Rina is a strong storm she should pass to the south of here in SWFla and Fla. all together. I'm not sure of this. Is it not stronger more poleward (not depending on fronts etc.). Why would it stay more south if it is a strong storm? I know about the front coming and turning it, but why would its strength keep it south? Maybe I'm missing something but I could be wrong. Again!

I think stronger storms tend to pump heat into the ridge that's why it should stay south


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Is this right? One of the local TV meteorologists just said if Rina is a strong storm she should pass to the south of here in SWFla and Fla. all together. I'm not sure of this. Is it not stronger more poleward (not depending on fronts etc.). Why would it stay more south if it is a strong storm? I know about the front coming and turning it, but why would its strength keep it south? Maybe I'm missing something but I could be wrong. Again!

I think stronger storms tend to pump heat into the ridge that's why it should stay south


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't agree in this case. The mode;s that show a stronger Rina pick it up and send it NE because a stronger storm is steered more by the mid and upper levels which are now and are forecast to be towards the ENE.

[sunnyday]

What do you want to bet that it recurves a la many of the storms this year?
This is not official; it is just my opinion. Check with the National Hurricane Center for official predictions.

[xironman]

Nice banding.

[jinftl]

Probability of 34kt (39 mph), 50kt (58 mph), 64kt (74mph) winds as of 5pm advisory across Florida...probabilities continue to inch up, esp across the Keys and SW Florida...Key West now has a 1 in 5 probability of sustained tropical storm force winds in the next 120 hours:

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

[Florida1118]

Probability of 34kt (39 mph), 50kt (58 mph), 64kt (74mph) winds as of 5pm advisory across Florida...probabilities continue to inch up, esp across the Keys and SW Florida...Key West now has a 1 in 5 probability of sustained tropical storm force winds in the next 120 hours:

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...Tampa is now at 6%. They are definitly creeping up as the cone inches closer to the State.

[psyclone]

Probability of 34kt (39 mph), 50kt (58 mph), 64kt (74mph) winds as of 5pm advisory across Florida...probabilities continue to inch up, esp across the Keys and SW Florida...Key West now has a 1 in 5 probability of sustained tropical storm force winds in the next 120 hours:

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...Tampa is now at 6%. They are definitly creeping up as the cone inches closer to the State.

that always happens though. these probs are still low. when you invert, even the highest number at key west means there is an 81% chance of NOT experiencing ts winds. for tampa it's 94%. and when you look at the more significant winds of 50 and 64 kt these figures really drop. i suspect they will go up some more before levelling off.

[jinftl]

if the forecast track continues on the ene or ne trend, these probabilities will really start to ramp up, esp across the Keys....keep in mind that this forecast only goes out 120 hours....at that time, the storm is forecast to be west or sw of florida by some distance. Even a due east extension of these probabilities puts the Keys in the 40-50% range. All about the trend this far out....

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...Tampa is now at 6%. They are definitly creeping up as the cone inches closer to the State.

that always happens though. these probs are still low. when you invert, even the highest number at key west means there is an 81% chance of NOT experiencing ts winds. for tampa it's 94%. and when you look at the more significant winds of 50 and 64 kt these figures really drop. i suspect they will go up some more before levelling off.