ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

107kts FL in the SE Quad. You would think the NE quad would be a good bit stronger.

so probably gonna get lowered to 95 in the intermediate advisory?

I am quite puzzled with 942 mB, her with aren't picking up.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I really doubt they would lower it considering those winds are in the SE quadrant (usually NE quad is stronger) and it is about as high as they have found all day

[Jevo]

0z GFS +24

[mf_dolphin]

I just wanna ask if GFDL is very reliable with regards to intensity?

Intensity forecasts from any of the models is the one thing they are terrible at across the board. The only thing I look at on the intensity side of the models is are they making the storm stronger or weaker. The actual intensity numbers are often way off.

[PTPatrick]

With respect to speed...it seems like this isnt going to be moving that fast for a northeast hurricane. Taking 24 hours to get from Hatterus to New York seems a long time, roughly about 24 mph. Dont most NE storms move more than 30 MPH? Whats the reasoning as to why its moving slower than most.

edit; supposed to take off from Philly at 6 PM saturday. Looks like she could given a bit of a headwind during take off, but most of what I am seeing shows TS force winds should stay out of Philly until after Midnight Saturday night.

[HurrMark]

Surge will be a big factor...especially given the size of this system...and the speed of movement....and the winds pushing water into the bays.

Interpolating the forecast track, Irene would be in New York around 2 PM, which is low tide...which would supposedly be good news. However, given the size and its relatively slow speed, the strongest winds would probably arrive well ahead of this time. Do you think the time of arrival would would be as important as it is in other storms which were smaller or faster (like the 1938 Long Island Express)?

As Jeff said earlier...there could be some piling up with the water...so you may not get the up and down of the tide.

Thank you...must have missed that...

[CrazyC83]

The threat order IMO:

1) Storm surge

2) Rain/inland flooding

3) Winds

-------

4) Tornadoes (not a significant threat)

[Dave]

[Chacor]

Tropical storm watches have been issued inland now for a number of northeastern cities including DC.

[fci]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

Run this loop and click trop pts. This is moving a good bit east of NHC forecast. Implications for NE? NC? Stay tuned.

I caution you to read prior discussions about wobble watching vs. A Trend.

[Hogweed]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 03:34Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 24
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 3:20:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°04'N 77°20'W (28.0667N 77.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 192 miles (309 km) to the ENE (61°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,588m (8,491ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the W (264°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 359° at 83kts (From the N at ~ 95.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (272°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 942mb (27.82 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 107kts (~ 123.1mph) in the southeast quadrant at 3:25:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 107kts (~ 123.1mph) in the southeast quadrant at 3:25:40Z

[Janie2006]

Lowest pressure found down to 937. Per latest recon.

It appears AFM's prognostication is being borne out. It's in the 930s now, but I'm really on the fence about a pressure in the range of 928 or so. Time will tell.

[UpTheCreek]

The threat order IMO:

1) Storm surge

2) Rain/inland flooding

3) Winds

-------

4) Tornadoes (not a significant threat)

Unless Irene decides to rip my roof off first!

j/k of course, I agree with your order.

[Air Force Met]

Thanks. These are the same children that deserted us after 3 hours of a 5 day ice storm power outage. They'd never survive the aftermath.

Power outages is where the real potential for disaster lies in this one. YEs there will be a lot of widespread surge damage...and wind damage....but if salt-water gets into the underground power systems in New York...New Jersey and fires that system...plus with the trees...well...this could be a real mess for a while.

I say this because there is already a whiff of civil unrest in the air up there and people have been looting "just because." Give them some time without power and this could get ugly. If you live in that area...there is more than one reason to leave...in my opinion.

[mf_dolphin]

A lot of the time a trough is working to sweep a system out to sea as it gets north and therefore the acceleration. In this case Irene is moving through a weakness between two high pressure systems with no trough to aid to push it out quickly.

[Air Force Met]

Thank you...must have missed that...

No problem. I'm not a hydro-wx guy...but Jeff is...so I would definitely listen to what he has to say.

[fci]

This is going to be a historic event.

I agree. This is going to be a headline maker for some time...I know I'll be watching the footage on the weather channel all weekend.

And CNN and MSNBC and Fox News.
Everyone will be on this event especially because they will be IN IT.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 260344
XXAA 76037 99281 70775 08087 99950 26010 31565 00956 ///// /////
92235 25011 33083 85982 25850 34087 70672 14602 35581 88999 77999
31313 09608 80317
61616 AF304 2409A IRENE OB 05
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2800N07750W 0319 MBL WND 33078 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 34081 949697 WL150 32078 083 REL 2805N07752W 031710 SPG 280
0N07750W 031947 =
XXBB 76038 99281 70775 08087 00950 26010 11873 24423 22851 25849
33850 25850 44820 25057 55715 17813 66697 14200
21212 00950 31565 11949 32060 22944 31579 33938 32584 44931 33080
55922 33584 66909 33076 77884 33074 88872 33578 99859 34078 11850
34087 22697 35581
31313 09608 80317
61616 AF304 2409A IRENE OB 05
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2800N07750W 0319 MBL WND 33078 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 34081 949697 WL150 32078 083 REL 2805N07752W 031710 SPG 280
0N07750W 031947 =
;

[bexar]

with pressure in the 930's, it can't still be a 100 KT storm?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TwisterFanatic]

Pressure is getting pretty low, sooner rather than later the winds are going to catch up.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +36



0z GFS +42 (OBX)