ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Janie2006]

Power outages is where the real potential for disaster lies in this one. YEs there will be a lot of widespread surge damage...and wind damage....but if salt-water gets into the underground power systems in New York...New Jersey and fires that system...plus with the trees...well...this could be a real mess for a while.

I say this because there is already a whiff of civil unrest in the air up there and people have been looting "just because." Give them some time without power and this could get ugly. If you live in that area...there is more than one reason to leave...in my opinion.

I hadn't even considered that angle, but now that you mention it that seems to be a real possibility. I suppose we're relatively used to power outages down here, at least when a storm comes calling.

[Wthrman13]

I just wanna ask if GFDL is very reliable with regards to intensity?

Intensity forecasts from any of the models is the one thing they are terrible at across the board. The only thing I look at on the intensity side of the models is are they making the storm stronger or weaker. The actual intensity numbers are often way off.

Yep, we still have a long way to go before we can forecast intensity accurately. The best we can do at this time is get in the general ballpark (i.e. whether a storm is likely to strengthen or weaken). I fully expect this to continue to improve in the same manner that track forecasts have improved, but it's going to take some significant advances in numerical modeling (and associated physical parameterizations). A lot of research focus and money is being poured into this for hurricane forecasting (as well as other severe weather forecasting).

The GFDL, HWRF, etc. should be viewed as the precursors or prototypes of what to expect 10-20 years down the road with much greater accuracy.

[Dave]

214
URNT15 KNHC 260350
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 16 20110826
034030 2719N 07628W 6966 03006 9870 +100 //// 217085 085 063 004 01
034100 2718N 07627W 6963 03013 //// +094 //// 219085 085 062 006 01
034130 2717N 07626W 6969 03009 //// +090 //// 218084 084 061 006 01
034200 2716N 07625W 6964 03020 //// +097 //// 218081 082 060 004 01
034230 2715N 07624W 6970 03016 //// +096 //// 216080 081 061 003 01
034300 2713N 07623W 6964 03026 //// +095 //// 217078 079 060 005 01
034330 2712N 07621W 6969 03024 9897 +099 //// 216076 078 060 001 01
034400 2711N 07620W 6967 03030 9902 +099 //// 214075 076 059 002 05
034430 2710N 07619W 6966 03036 9908 +097 //// 214077 077 058 001 01
034500 2709N 07618W 6970 03036 9910 +100 //// 215075 075 057 000 05
034530 2708N 07617W 6966 03043 9914 +100 //// 215074 074 057 001 05
034600 2707N 07615W 6967 03043 9920 +097 //// 212076 077 057 000 05
034630 2705N 07614W 6962 03054 9923 +099 +092 213076 077 057 000 00
034700 2704N 07613W 6968 03050 9929 +095 //// 214076 078 056 001 01
034730 2703N 07612W 6967 03054 9935 +088 //// 216079 080 056 007 01
034800 2702N 07611W 6971 03051 //// +072 //// 218077 078 053 012 01
034830 2701N 07610W 6968 03057 //// +089 //// 215080 080 051 004 01
034900 2700N 07608W 6969 03058 //// +087 //// 217081 082 052 005 01
034930 2659N 07607W 6975 03056 //// +076 //// 209078 082 052 007 01
035000 2658N 07606W 6953 03085 9972 +071 //// 206078 080 051 003 01
$$

[CrazyC83]

Power outages is where the real potential for disaster lies in this one. YEs there will be a lot of widespread surge damage...and wind damage....but if salt-water gets into the underground power systems in New York...New Jersey and fires that system...plus with the trees...well...this could be a real mess for a while.

I say this because there is already a whiff of civil unrest in the air up there and people have been looting "just because." Give them some time without power and this could get ugly. If you live in that area...there is more than one reason to leave...in my opinion.

I hadn't even considered that angle, but now that you mention it that seems to be a real possibility. I suppose we're relatively used to power outages down here, at least when a storm comes calling.

That will be a major problem I agree.

[Hogweed]

Where are people seeing pressure in the 930s? Is that extrapolated? Latest Vortex says 942mb

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 260345
XXAA 76037 99281 70773 08087 99942 27200 02503 00/// ///// /////
92161 26400 07003 85908 22804 09006 70595 16410 03503 88999 77999
31313 09608 80319
61616 AF304 2409A IRENE OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2806N07735W 0323 MBL WND 08503 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06
503 941697 WL150 05502 084 REL 2806N07734W 031949 SPG 2806N07735W
032247 =
XXBB 76038 99281 70773 08087 00942 27200 11850 22804 22776 21234
33697 16009
21212 00942 02503 11850 09006 22697 04503
31313 09608 80319
61616 AF304 2409A IRENE OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2806N07735W 0323 MBL WND 08503 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06
503 941697 WL150 05502 084 REL 2806N07734W 031949 SPG 2806N07735W
032247 =
;

[Texashawk]

Where are people seeing pressure in the 930s? Is that extrapolated? Latest Vortex says 942mb

237
URNT15 KNHC 260330
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 14 20110826
032030 2805N 07718W 6967 02624 9397 +155 +154 152005 007 021 000 03
032100 2804N 07716W 6958 02634 9389 +161 +154 186009 012 020 000 03
032130 2803N 07715W 6968 02620 9383 +167 +155 212017 020 020 000 03
032200 2802N 07713W 6966 02621 9381 +168 +155 220022 023 020 000 03
032230 2801N 07712W 6965 02624 9381 +168 +156 224028 030 025 000 00
032300 2759N 07710W 6969 02620 9378 +173 +156 228035 039 039 001 00
032330 2758N 07709W 6968 02629 9394 +163 +157 225048 054 050 001 00
032400 2757N 07708W 6963 02646 9421 +149 //// 223068 072 065 003 01
032430 2756N 07706W 6978 02646 9448 +141 //// 223081 089 081 006 05
032500 2754N 07705W 6958 02693 9473 +140 //// 224101 104 085 009 01
032530 2753N 07704W 6977 02694 9505 +130 //// 224106 107 084 008 01
032600 2752N 07703W 6968 02728 //// +115 //// 225102 103 083 014 05
032630 2751N 07702W 6964 02758 //// +104 //// 226097 099 079 040 05
032700 2750N 07700W 6970 02771 //// +100 //// 224096 098 069 033 01
032730 2749N 07659W 6971 02786 9642 +096 //// 224097 098 071 026 01
032800 2748N 07658W 6971 02804 9659 +096 //// 222100 101 072 018 01
032830 2746N 07657W 6967 02818 9673 +096 //// 222098 099 073 018 01
032900 2745N 07656W 6971 02828 //// +096 //// 225097 098 073 011 01
032930 2744N 07654W 6963 02854 //// +095 //// 224098 099 069 016 01
033000 2743N 07653W 6976 02846 //// +090 //// 223101 102 074 010 01
$$
;

[Jevo]

0z GFS +48



0z GFS +54

[vacanechaser]

Where are people seeing pressure in the 930s? Is that extrapolated? Latest Vortex says 942mb

exactly... i asked that same question earlier... but never got an answer.. i have not seen anything that would suggest that at all... 942 was the last VDM





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Trishasmom]

when are the NYC and NE residents going to start taking this seriously?

Actually a lot more are taking it more seriously than you may think. Not everyone goes into panic mode but they do prepare. I've been in contact with several and they are taking it very seriously. The thing is they don't have to be in a panic or just talk only about Irene. They do what they can to prepare and then continue living life as normally as they can as they wait. The last thing that is needed is for people to get panicked and become disorganized that is when you create more problems than you solve. There is only so much you can do and then you hunker down and pray.

[PTPatrick]

Perhaps heading a bit more offshore this run? Is 18Z about 3:00 eastern time?

nevermind...found it, 18z during DST is 2pm eastern. 0z is 8 PM eastern

[Hurricaneman]

Where are people seeing pressure in the 930s? Is that extrapolated? Latest Vortex says 942mb

237
URNT15 KNHC 260330
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 14 20110826
032030 2805N 07718W 6967 02624 9397 +155 +154 152005 007 021 000 03
032100 2804N 07716W 6958 02634 9389 +161 +154 186009 012 020 000 03
032130 2803N 07715W 6968 02620 9383 +167 +155 212017 020 020 000 03
032200 2802N 07713W 6966 02621 9381 +168 +155 220022 023 020 000 03
032230 2801N 07712W 6965 02624 9381 +168 +156 224028 030 025 000 00
032300 2759N 07710W 6969 02620 9378 +173 +156 228035 039 039 001 00
032330 2758N 07709W 6968 02629 9394 +163 +157 225048 054 050 001 00
032400 2757N 07708W 6963 02646 9421 +149 //// 223068 072 065 003 01
032430 2756N 07706W 6978 02646 9448 +141 //// 223081 089 081 006 05
032500 2754N 07705W 6958 02693 9473 +140 //// 224101 104 085 009 01
032530 2753N 07704W 6977 02694 9505 +130 //// 224106 107 084 008 01
032600 2752N 07703W 6968 02728 //// +115 //// 225102 103 083 014 05
032630 2751N 07702W 6964 02758 //// +104 //// 226097 099 079 040 05
032700 2750N 07700W 6970 02771 //// +100 //// 224096 098 069 033 01
032730 2749N 07659W 6971 02786 9642 +096 //// 224097 098 071 026 01
032800 2748N 07658W 6971 02804 9659 +096 //// 222100 101 072 018 01
032830 2746N 07657W 6967 02818 9673 +096 //// 222098 099 073 018 01
032900 2745N 07656W 6971 02828 //// +096 //// 225097 098 073 011 01
032930 2744N 07654W 6963 02854 //// +095 //// 224098 099 069 016 01
033000 2743N 07653W 6976 02846 //// +090 //// 223101 102 074 010 01
$$
;

Those values are usually a little lower than the actual etrap pressure

[SunnyThoughts]

I thought after the ERC finished up, we would have a much larger eye. Considering the eye is still small as in the IR, might she start yet another ERC in the near future and perhaps that might weaken her a bit yet again?

[cycloneye]

Perhaps heading a bit more offshore this run? Is 18Z about 3:00 eastern time?

18z is 2:00 PM EDT.

[Hogweed]

Where are people seeing pressure in the 930s? Is that extrapolated? Latest Vortex says 942mb

237
URNT15 KNHC 260330
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 14 20110826
032030 2805N 07718W 6967 02624 9397 +155 +154 152005 007 021 000 03
032100 2804N 07716W 6958 02634 9389 +161 +154 186009 012 020 000 03
032130 2803N 07715W 6968 02620 9383 +167 +155 212017 020 020 000 03
032200 2802N 07713W 6966 02621 9381 +168 +155 220022 023 020 000 03
032230 2801N 07712W 6965 02624 9381 +168 +156 224028 030 025 000 00
032300 2759N 07710W 6969 02620 9378 +173 +156 228035 039 039 001 00
032330 2758N 07709W 6968 02629 9394 +163 +157 225048 054 050 001 00
032400 2757N 07708W 6963 02646 9421 +149 //// 223068 072 065 003 01
032430 2756N 07706W 6978 02646 9448 +141 //// 223081 089 081 006 05
032500 2754N 07705W 6958 02693 9473 +140 //// 224101 104 085 009 01
032530 2753N 07704W 6977 02694 9505 +130 //// 224106 107 084 008 01
032600 2752N 07703W 6968 02728 //// +115 //// 225102 103 083 014 05
032630 2751N 07702W 6964 02758 //// +104 //// 226097 099 079 040 05
032700 2750N 07700W 6970 02771 //// +100 //// 224096 098 069 033 01
032730 2749N 07659W 6971 02786 9642 +096 //// 224097 098 071 026 01
032800 2748N 07658W 6971 02804 9659 +096 //// 222100 101 072 018 01
032830 2746N 07657W 6967 02818 9673 +096 //// 222098 099 073 018 01
032900 2745N 07656W 6971 02828 //// +096 //// 225097 098 073 011 01
032930 2744N 07654W 6963 02854 //// +095 //// 224098 099 069 016 01
033000 2743N 07653W 6976 02846 //// +090 //// 223101 102 074 010 01
$$
;

That;s extrapolated not actual.though. The NHC doesn't use these extrapolated values when they have actual dropsonde returns from the surface. And the dropsonde said 942mb.

[psyclone]

Pressure is getting pretty low, sooner rather than later the winds are going to catch up.

the core looks really impressive and with the pressure drops i expect a corresponding increase in winds but not to the extent that one would ordinarily expect since the storm is so big and the pressure gradient is looser than what we typically observe. i think the winds could bump up to the 125mph range.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

[Jevo]

0z GFS +60



0z GFS +63



oz GFS +66

[Dave]

680
URNT15 KNHC 260400
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 17 20110826
035030 2656N 07605W 6972 03063 9959 +090 +089 205077 080 051 004 00
035100 2655N 07604W 6963 03075 9972 +081 //// 207081 081 050 004 01
035130 2654N 07603W 6964 03076 9975 +073 //// 209080 081 050 004 01
035200 2653N 07602W 6970 03076 9979 +083 //// 208078 078 050 003 01
035230 2652N 07601W 6968 03082 9986 +080 //// 210076 077 050 003 01
035300 2651N 07600W 6962 03093 9981 +086 //// 212075 075 049 000 01
035330 2650N 07558W 6972 03085 9985 +087 //// 213073 074 049 003 01
035400 2649N 07557W 6965 03096 9985 +091 +071 211072 073 047 002 00
035430 2648N 07556W 6969 03092 9980 +097 +067 210071 072 048 000 00
035500 2647N 07555W 6967 03097 9987 +095 +064 209071 072 048 000 00
035530 2645N 07554W 6967 03099 9990 +093 +065 210072 073 047 001 03
035600 2645N 07552W 6966 03102 9997 +090 +059 207072 073 /// /// 03
035630 2647N 07551W 6963 03104 9995 +090 +059 204070 070 /// /// 03
035700 2649N 07552W 6979 03085 9991 +094 +062 205071 072 045 002 03
035730 2651N 07552W 6964 03098 9990 +090 +069 202072 073 049 001 00
035800 2654N 07552W 6967 03095 9983 +093 +076 200073 073 049 003 00
035830 2656N 07552W 6970 03087 9988 +086 +080 201075 076 050 003 00
035900 2658N 07552W 6967 03088 9991 +081 //// 201076 077 050 003 01
035930 2701N 07552W 6967 03084 9989 +079 //// 199077 078 051 003 01
040000 2703N 07552W 6964 03085 9972 +089 //// 199077 078 051 003 01