ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

watch recon, may be very close to establishing the llc now, or what is left of it.

[ozonepete]

Regardless of if there' an LLC or not, downgrade should be coming out from the NHC before too long.

Yeah. Dead at 5!

But it still could regenerate after the MLC gets out over the water late today.

[wxman57]

watch recon, may be very close to establishing the llc now, or what is left of it.

Recon is hunting around 17N/72.3W for a center. Winds VERY light in that area.

[Tireman4]

watch recon, may be very close to establishing the llc now, or what is left of it.

Recon is hunting around 17N/72.3W for a center. Winds VERY light in that area.

Are you calling for Bones Wxman 57?

[wxman57]

Recon at 17.2N/72.7W - still very light SE-SSE wind (5-10 kts).

[SouthDadeFish]

In my opinion it seems likely that Emily will degenerate into an open wave soon. However, I think there is a decent chance that once the MLC cross Hispaniola later today or tonight we could see Emily try and establish a LLC again once she has enough room to draw in an unimpeded inflow. Conditions appear favorable in the Bahamas for development. Hispaniola has a track record of devouring storms though so we will see. Again, not a professional forecast, just my opinion.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041810
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 14 20110804
180030 1701N 07315W 9417 00609 0098 +219 +095 140004 006 017 000 00
180100 1701N 07317W 9429 00597 0097 +221 +097 139003 004 017 000 03
180130 1700N 07319W 9421 00604 0096 +223 +097 156003 003 017 000 03
180200 1700N 07320W 9414 00611 0095 +226 +097 155003 003 016 000 00
180230 1659N 07322W 9471 00558 0094 +232 +097 161003 003 016 000 03
180300 1659N 07323W 9577 00456 0088 +239 +098 150003 003 017 000 03
180330 1658N 07325W 9598 00436 0088 +240 +100 159003 004 018 000 00
180400 1658N 07326W 9597 00437 0088 +237 +101 135005 006 /// /// 03
180430 1659N 07328W 9585 00447 0087 +236 +100 134007 008 017 000 03
180500 1700N 07329W 9595 00437 0087 +240 +100 139008 009 016 000 00
180530 1701N 07330W 9595 00438 0087 +238 +097 147009 009 015 000 03
180600 1702N 07331W 9593 00440 0089 +237 +095 131006 008 015 000 00
180630 1703N 07333W 9593 00440 0088 +235 +095 152005 006 014 000 00
180700 1704N 07334W 9597 00436 0088 +233 +095 146006 006 014 000 00
180730 1706N 07335W 9592 00441 0089 +229 +095 133007 008 015 000 03
180800 1707N 07336W 9589 00443 0089 +231 +095 129007 008 015 000 00
180830 1708N 07337W 9598 00436 0088 +235 +096 148006 006 014 000 00
180900 1709N 07339W 9592 00441 0088 +235 +097 150006 006 015 000 00
180930 1710N 07340W 9592 00441 0088 +235 +097 156007 008 013 000 03
181000 1711N 07341W 9598 00435 0087 +235 +098 158009 010 014 000 03
$$

[jonj2040]

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[cpdaman]

doesn't take much to devour a mess of system from the start.

emily so far has never gotten her act together and could never vertically allign herself .....err stand like a lady lol

so a close brush w/ hispanola is enough to nearly crush her.....

wonder if the weakened system will drift West or slide NW

[artist]

oooops, old image

[wxman57]

At the very least, Emily is no longer a TS based on recon obs. Next report from the plane should have something other than SE-SSE winds if Emily does still have a weak LLC. This is certainly the weakest Emily has been for days (since before it was upgraded). Whatever is left would track generally WNW-NW across Haiti/eastern Cuba and could have some potential to regenerate. But it won't remember that it was once a TS, so it would have no greater chance of regeneration than a typical tropical wave moving into the region.

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 041814
97779 17214 50161 71300 15200 16023 18059 /2537
41520
RMK AF306 1205A EMILY OB 03
SWS = 20 KTS

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z GFDL Weak and thru Bahamas...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

looks like a split. MLC heading over the island, while the LLC (if it survives at all) heads generally west. though it may have opened up. still looking for change in wind direction to indicate a closed low there somewhere.

[artist]

At the very least, Emily is no longer a TS based on recon obs. Next report from the plane should have something other than SE-SSE winds if Emily does still have a weak LLC. This is certainly the weakest Emily has been for days (since before it was upgraded). Whatever is left would track generally WNW-NW across Haiti/eastern Cuba and could have some potential to regenerate. But it won't remember that it was once a TS, so it would have no greater chance of regeneration than a typical tropical wave moving into the region.

does this count?
000
URNT11 KNHC 041814
97779 17214 50161 71300 15200 16023 18059 /2537
41520
RMK AF306 1205A EMILY OB 03
SWS = 20 KTS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA TAKING A TOLL ON EMILY...CYCLONE COULD
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 72.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO...AND ALONG THE
NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCIS TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF SANTO
DOMINGO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EMILY IS LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM
EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY...OR
ITS REMNANTS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI
LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND
EMILY COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND OVER
SOUTHERN HAITI. IF EMILY SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE OVER HAITI...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WOULD REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD
POSSIBLY REACH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND 2 TO 4 FEET WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[jonj2040]

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[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041820
AF306 1205A EMILY HDOB 15 20110804
181030 1713N 07342W 9592 00441 0087 +235 +099 169010 010 014 000 00
181100 1714N 07343W 9592 00440 0087 +238 +100 163009 010 013 000 00
181130 1715N 07345W 9599 00434 0086 +235 +100 151009 009 013 000 03
181200 1716N 07346W 9593 00438 0086 +237 +101 138007 008 014 000 00
181230 1717N 07347W 9591 00440 0086 +238 +102 131008 008 012 001 03
181300 1717N 07349W 9598 00435 0087 +235 +102 106007 008 013 000 00
181330 1718N 07351W 9592 00440 0087 +235 +103 099008 008 014 000 00
181400 1719N 07352W 9592 00440 0087 +235 +102 086008 009 014 000 00
181430 1720N 07353W 9594 00439 0088 +235 +102 088009 009 014 000 03
181500 1721N 07355W 9590 00442 0088 +235 +102 083009 009 013 000 00
181530 1722N 07356W 9594 00438 0088 +235 +102 085009 010 014 000 00
181600 1723N 07358W 9594 00439 0088 +235 +102 091010 010 014 000 00
181630 1724N 07359W 9594 00439 0088 +234 +102 092011 012 015 000 00
181700 1725N 07400W 9596 00438 0088 +235 +103 094011 011 015 000 00
181730 1726N 07402W 9589 00443 0088 +234 +103 092012 012 015 000 03
181800 1727N 07403W 9596 00437 0089 +232 +103 095011 011 015 000 00
181830 1728N 07405W 9589 00444 0089 +231 +104 098011 012 016 000 00
181900 1729N 07406W 9597 00437 0089 +234 +104 094012 012 017 000 03
181930 1730N 07407W 9596 00438 0089 +233 +105 095012 012 016 000 00
182000 1731N 07409W 9593 00441 0089 +232 +105 094013 013 016 000 03
$$
;

[KWT]

Thinking this may well be the end of Emily for now...a fair chance IMO that it reforms if this is the end...

[wxman57]

18Z models initialized as "Disturbance Emily" with 30 kts. Downgrade coming.