ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[WeatherLovingDoc]

From JB:

Irene tightening up. 942 pressure is 3.9 plus wind at 115 is 3 making this a 6.9 out of 10 on my scale. Should peak 8-8.5. (Katrina and Rita 8-8.5 on my scale)

Interesting. I keep hearing about the Bastardi Scale. What does it translate to in real-world terms; i.e. what does a 8 mean to a community vs. a 5?

I'll try a nicer answer than Jevo's The problem with the Saffir-Simpson sacle is that it doesn't fit a lot of storms. A Cat 2 storm with very low pressure and a large wind field can cause storm surge way above what the chart lists. What some have proposed is a modified scale that takes these differences into account to give a truer picture of a particular storms power. JB has come up with his own as a combination of wind+pressure. I've never actually seen his scale in writing but he references at times.

Bastardi sounds like someone else we all know, imo.

"Your time is limited,*
so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.*
Don’t be trapped by dogma,*
which is living with the results of
other people’s thinking.*
Don’t let the noise*
of other people’s opinions*
drown out you own inner voice.*
And most important,
have the courage to follow*
your heart and intuition.*
They somehow already know*
what you truly want to become.*
Everything else is secondary.”

Steve Jobs...

[mf_dolphin]

Irene is gonna miss her next forecast point. shes veered off a bit to the right... (maybe she wont make landfall after all?

Again folks. Please don't make these kind of statements. While she's wobbled to the east she can just as quickly wobble back to the west. People could look at this post and drop their guard. That's exactly what we don't want to happen.

[Janie2006]

There's been a lot of debate and discussion about the Saffir-Simpson scale, and it's accelerated since Katrina, a Category 3 hurricane with a Category 5 storm surge. Who knows? Maybe JB is on to something. I'd like to read about his ideas on it.

My concern with Irene is that she's becoming a massive storm, so people in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast may drastically underestimate the amount of water she's going to push ashore.

[Nikki]

Irene is gonna miss her next forecast point. shes veered off a bit to the right... (maybe she wont make landfall after all?

Again folks. Please don't make these kind of statements. While she's wobbled to the east she can just as quickly wobble back to the west. People could look at this post and drop their guard. That's exactly what we don't want to happen.

Thank you mf_dolphin!!!

[HurricaneWarning92]

Irene is gonna miss her next forecast point. shes veered off a bit to the right... (maybe she wont make landfall after all?

Again folks. Please don't make these kind of statements. While she's wobbled to the east she can just as quickly wobble back to the west. People could look at this post and drop their guard. That's exactly what we don't want to happen.

yes sir. i apologize for that. PEOPLE THAT WAS JUST MY OPINION.

[abryant.ma]

Irene is gonna miss her next forecast point. shes veered off a bit to the right... (maybe she wont make landfall after all?

Again folks. Please don't make these kind of statements. While she's wobbled to the east she can just as quickly wobble back to the west. People could look at this post and drop their guard. That's exactly what we don't want to happen.

Thank you mf! These east wobbles are simply Irene beginning to interact with the dropping trof over KY and right now, she's trying to find the path of least resistance.

[Air Force Met]

Heh my real answer would be heavily moderated and get me in trouble with mf_dolphin.. the simple answer is it doesn't.. except to boost his big ole ego a little more..

Well...I won't argue that he has an ego...but I will argue that it doesn't mean anything. Several private weather companies employ their own "scale." Why? Because of the FACT the SS scale is not an accurate representation of a storm. Ike was a good case in point at a Cat 2. So...it's not just Joe that does this.

Irene probably doesn't have Cat 3 winds at the surface...but she has a Cat 3...borderline Cat 4 pressure...and will have Cat 3-4 surge...even if she comes in at a low 2 in New York.

The NHC has talked about altering the scale...but because they are a rather large bureaucracy with rather large egos all their own (and don't kid yourself...any met worth his/her weight in salt has an ego the size of the "Big House")...they won't do it. So since they won't do it...private companies have done what is best for their clients...which is what they should do.

But I also know what really doesn't work...and what has been proven to not work. The SS scale. In all honesty, the only reason we keep it around is nostalgia. There is surely a better way to skin a bear...but that is another debate for another time.

[mf_dolphin]

HurricaneWarning92, I wasn't picking on you but I think it's important to realize the potential impact our statements could have on someone who doesn't know better. It's time we all consider this before we hit the submit button

[Dave]

971
URNT15 KNHC 260431
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 20 20110826
042030 2847N 07553W 6974 03020 //// +066 //// 163107 110 060 010 01
042100 2850N 07553W 6966 03032 //// +066 //// 161108 110 060 008 01
042130 2853N 07553W 6967 03032 //// +073 //// 161108 110 058 007 01
042200 2855N 07553W 6965 03038 //// +082 //// 163104 105 058 007 01
042230 2858N 07553W 6967 03039 //// +085 //// 162102 102 058 005 01
042300 2901N 07553W 6964 03046 //// +084 //// 162097 098 057 005 01
042330 2903N 07553W 6969 03042 //// +078 //// 157098 099 059 006 01
042400 2906N 07553W 6969 03045 //// +064 //// 155097 099 057 009 01
042430 2908N 07554W 6964 03052 //// +061 //// 155093 094 058 009 01
042500 2910N 07554W 6967 03052 //// +065 //// 155091 092 055 010 01
042530 2913N 07554W 6963 03060 //// +067 //// 153090 091 055 010 01
042600 2915N 07554W 6967 03057 //// +067 //// 151088 089 054 007 01
042630 2918N 07554W 6967 03061 //// +075 //// 151089 089 050 006 01
042700 2920N 07554W 6969 03062 9955 +085 //// 151089 090 053 003 01
042730 2923N 07554W 6967 03065 9961 +085 //// 150088 090 052 004 01
042800 2925N 07554W 6967 03067 9963 +085 //// 148084 085 049 005 01
042830 2927N 07554W 6969 03070 9964 +086 //// 148082 083 049 006 01
042900 2930N 07554W 6965 03077 9982 +075 //// 146081 082 048 006 01
042930 2932N 07554W 6967 03077 9981 +078 //// 145079 081 048 004 01
043000 2934N 07554W 6971 03074 9978 +082 //// 143075 076 050 003 01
$$
;

[mf_dolphin]

Well said AFM

[HurricaneWarning92]

HurricaneWarning92, I wasn't picking on you but I think it's important to realize the potential impact our statements could have on someone who doesn't know better. It's time we all consider this before we hit the submit button

Its all good. Next time ill be more careful. Thank you! back to topic...

[Sanibel]

Hope people are getting word to those humble folk out the end of those estuary backwaters in Pamlico Sound.

[fci]

Irene is gonna miss her next forecast point. shes veered off a bit to the right... (maybe she wont make landfall after all?

Again folks. Please don't make these kind of statements. While she's wobbled to the east she can just as quickly wobble back to the west. People could look at this post and drop their guard. That's exactly what we don't want to happen.

WxGuy1 wrote a great post yesterday about wobble watching that should be stickied.
Don't watch every wobble, if whatever you see happens for about 6 hours, it may be a trend to look at.

[MGC]

JB was on the Shawn Hannity radio show this afternoon. He is really preaching his gloom and doom and expects Irene's CP to drop into the mid to low 930's before landfall. He said Irene would be a Cat-3 at landfall in NC. Major destruction up the east coast....He said he has been warning this because the PDO is negative and the AMO is positive and the last time it was this way was back in the 50's when the EC got slammed.

Irene on IR looks to be intensifying as the dark red is staring to look like a donut. Looks to be wobbleing towards the north just like the NHC said in the last advisory. Hevean help the people in Irene's path. If you are in a area that will get surge get out. I still remember the stench of the bodies trapped in the debris after Katrina.....MGC

[CrazyC83]

The IKE on Irene at last check was 93, and the HDP for waves/surge was 4.8.

[phishy_mama]

A newbie here. Someone posted a projection image earlier this week that I was hoping to show to some of my neighbors and now I am having a hard time finding it. It am looking for something visual that shows the possible storm surge along the Delmarva. I am a weather nut and I know this is going to be a big storm. However I am having a hard time convincing folks in my neighborhood that they need to find higher ground. Please don't tell me to tune into the local media because they are worthless here. I am trying to find a image that will make hard headed people move. Many of them live in mobile homes. They all think that they made it through Isabel so they should be fine.

I have my room booked. all my papers secured. I am now on my third sweep of my home, still have room in my jeep.

I just don't want to see my neighbors suffer due to ignorance. A picture is worth a thousand words and that image is what I am looking for. The image that will make them move.

[psyclone]

Irene is already at a point where it would need to cede quite a bit of longitude to miss the north carolina coast. in other words, there is ample room for the cyclone to track east of the forecast and still deliver a horrendous blow to nc and points north.

[Recurve]

From JB:

Irene tightening up. 942 pressure is 3.9 plus wind at 115 is 3 making this a 6.9 out of 10 on my scale. Should peak 8-8.5. (Katrina and Rita 8-8.5 on my scale)

Interesting. I keep hearing about the Bastardi Scale. What does it translate to in real-world terms; i.e. what does a 8 mean to a community vs. a 5?

I'll try a nicer answer than Jevo's The problem with the Saffir-Simpson sacle is that it doesn't fit a lot of storms. A Cat 2 storm with very low pressure and a large wind field can cause storm surge way above what the chart lists. What some have proposed is a modified scale that takes these differences into account to give a truer picture of a particular storms power. JB has come up with his own as a combination of wind+pressure. I've never actually seen his scale in writing but he references at times.

I'll keep mentioning this every so often until it becomes common knowledge: There is an experimental wind-and-surge scale developed by Mark Powell of NOAA/AOML/HRD that was recently granted a patent. Powell's team is posting graphics and data on Irene. It is designed to specifically avoid a Hurricane Ike-type disaster where people see a Cat 2 storm that really has Cat 4 surge potential because of a broad wind field and other factors.

It's just a coincidence that the value Powell et al developed is called IKE -- for integrated kinetic energy -- which goes into their ranking of wind and wave/surge damage potential numbers.

The damage potential is a scale of zero to 6, somewhat like SS scale. Right now (an hour ago) they have Irene ranked as 2.9 for wind damage potential, but 4.8 for waves/surge damage. The IKE value for the storm is derived from energy of TS force winds and hurricane force winds, given in TJoules. Irene's IKE is 96 and 27 TJ, respectively, at this time.

Here is a link to the page with their analysis: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind.html

Here is a link to a recent article about the patent for the IKE scale: http://www.keysnet.com/2011/08/05/365464/scientists-awarded-patent-for.html

Here is one of the IKE map graphics from 0430z: The energy and damage potential values are listed under the graphic.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Dave]

144
URNT15 KNHC 260440
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 21 20110826
043030 2936N 07554W 6963 03084 9977 +085 //// 143075 076 052 003 01
043100 2939N 07554W 6967 03083 9986 +080 //// 145076 077 052 004 05
043130 2941N 07555W 6968 03082 9988 +080 //// 143074 075 050 005 05
043200 2942N 07557W 6966 03084 9986 +080 //// 141071 072 /// /// 05
043230 2942N 07559W 6966 03083 //// +080 //// 141070 070 051 004 05
043300 2940N 07559W 6967 03079 9982 +080 //// 141071 071 052 003 05
043330 2939N 07600W 6971 03075 9976 +084 //// 141070 070 053 003 05
043400 2938N 07601W 6966 03077 9978 +079 //// 140071 071 051 002 01
043430 2937N 07602W 6969 03071 9980 +074 //// 140073 073 050 005 01
043500 2935N 07603W 6967 03070 9967 +082 //// 140072 074 051 004 01
043530 2934N 07605W 6967 03067 9960 +087 //// 141076 077 051 004 01
043600 2933N 07606W 6970 03060 9956 +086 //// 143080 080 052 005 01
043630 2932N 07607W 6966 03061 9944 +091 //// 142080 081 050 006 01
043700 2931N 07609W 6967 03056 9944 +090 //// 140079 079 049 005 01
043730 2930N 07610W 6966 03055 9949 +076 //// 140078 078 051 008 01
043800 2929N 07611W 6972 03044 //// +061 //// 140080 082 052 011 01
043830 2928N 07613W 6963 03051 //// +076 //// 144083 085 052 004 01
043900 2927N 07614W 6966 03044 //// +081 //// 147087 088 053 005 01
043930 2925N 07615W 6964 03043 //// +076 //// 148088 089 054 008 01
044000 2924N 07616W 6966 03037 //// +065 //// 147090 092 056 011 01
$$
;

[sbcc]

A newbie here. Someone posted a projection image earlier this week that I was hoping to show to some of my neighbors and now I am having a hard time finding it. It am looking for something visual that shows the possible storm surge along the Delmarva. I am a weather nut and I know this is going to be a big storm. However I am having a hard time convincing folks in my neighborhood that they need to find higher ground. Please don't tell me to tune into the local media because they are worthless here. I am trying to find a image that will make hard headed people move. Many of them live in mobile homes. They all think that they made it through Isabel so they should be fine.

I have my room booked. all my papers secured. I am now on my third sweep of my home, still have room in my jeep.

I just don't want to see my neighbors suffer due to ignorance. A picture is worth a thousand words and that image is what I am looking for. The image that will make them move.

Go here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at4.shtml?gm and zoom in on your location. Hope this helps!

ETA: Here's a link to another type of map showing surge risk by SS category: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml?gm