ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion
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CrazyC83
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000
URNT15 KNHC 290118
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 21 20110929
010830 1909N 05959W 8432 01525 0052 +165 +145 175045 046 036 001 00
010900 1911N 05959W 8434 01522 0054 +161 +146 173044 044 035 002 00
010930 1913N 05958W 8418 01537 0053 +159 +152 171046 048 038 004 00
011000 1915N 05958W 8429 01528 0050 +163 +159 172048 048 038 004 03
011030 1917N 05958W 8432 01524 0049 +167 +154 172047 047 040 003 00
011100 1919N 05958W 8425 01533 0051 +166 +150 168045 046 /// /// 03
011130 1920N 05959W 8423 01532 0049 +165 +152 166044 045 034 003 03
011200 1920N 06001W 8435 01516 0044 +167 +152 164044 045 036 002 00
011230 1920N 06003W 8426 01523 0047 +157 +157 162043 045 035 004 00
011300 1920N 06005W 8426 01519 0038 +164 +151 162046 047 036 004 00
011330 1920N 06006W 8436 01508 0038 +162 +151 166047 048 038 002 00
011400 1920N 06008W 8422 01517 0032 +164 +154 165049 050 038 004 00
011430 1920N 06010W 8431 01505 0040 +142 //// 164046 051 041 007 01
011500 1920N 06012W 8428 01503 0025 +160 +155 165048 049 036 003 00
011530 1920N 06014W 8432 01496 0022 +158 +157 166047 049 036 005 00
011600 1920N 06015W 8430 01496 0019 +158 +158 167044 045 037 004 00
011630 1920N 06017W 8432 01490 0011 +164 +159 168045 046 039 004 00
011700 1920N 06019W 8422 01493 0012 +151 //// 166046 050 040 010 01
011730 1920N 06021W 8446 01466 0002 +160 //// 170040 041 038 003 01
011800 1920N 06023W 8430 01481 9996 +170 +152 170040 041 038 003 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 290118
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 21 20110929
010830 1909N 05959W 8432 01525 0052 +165 +145 175045 046 036 001 00
010900 1911N 05959W 8434 01522 0054 +161 +146 173044 044 035 002 00
010930 1913N 05958W 8418 01537 0053 +159 +152 171046 048 038 004 00
011000 1915N 05958W 8429 01528 0050 +163 +159 172048 048 038 004 03
011030 1917N 05958W 8432 01524 0049 +167 +154 172047 047 040 003 00
011100 1919N 05958W 8425 01533 0051 +166 +150 168045 046 /// /// 03
011130 1920N 05959W 8423 01532 0049 +165 +152 166044 045 034 003 03
011200 1920N 06001W 8435 01516 0044 +167 +152 164044 045 036 002 00
011230 1920N 06003W 8426 01523 0047 +157 +157 162043 045 035 004 00
011300 1920N 06005W 8426 01519 0038 +164 +151 162046 047 036 004 00
011330 1920N 06006W 8436 01508 0038 +162 +151 166047 048 038 002 00
011400 1920N 06008W 8422 01517 0032 +164 +154 165049 050 038 004 00
011430 1920N 06010W 8431 01505 0040 +142 //// 164046 051 041 007 01
011500 1920N 06012W 8428 01503 0025 +160 +155 165048 049 036 003 00
011530 1920N 06014W 8432 01496 0022 +158 +157 166047 049 036 005 00
011600 1920N 06015W 8430 01496 0019 +158 +158 167044 045 037 004 00
011630 1920N 06017W 8432 01490 0011 +164 +159 168045 046 039 004 00
011700 1920N 06019W 8422 01493 0012 +151 //// 166046 050 040 010 01
011730 1920N 06021W 8446 01466 0002 +160 //// 170040 041 038 003 01
011800 1920N 06023W 8430 01481 9996 +170 +152 170040 041 038 003 00
$$
;
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 290128
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 22 20110929
011830 1920N 06024W 8430 01477 9992 +169 +160 173037 037 039 002 03
011900 1920N 06026W 8434 01469 9985 +172 +162 176035 036 040 003 00
011930 1919N 06028W 8425 01474 9980 +172 +160 174033 034 037 004 00
012000 1919N 06029W 8429 01466 9974 +175 +165 176030 032 030 004 00
012030 1919N 06031W 8424 01467 9967 +176 +171 174025 026 029 002 00
012100 1919N 06033W 8438 01448 9962 +179 +177 170017 020 026 002 00
012130 1918N 06034W 8429 01457 9955 +189 +173 169010 012 026 001 00
012200 1918N 06036W 8429 01458 9954 +190 +166 225003 004 002 001 03
012230 1917N 06038W 8425 01461 9957 +188 +163 304004 006 003 002 03
012300 1917N 06040W 8439 01450 9959 +189 +163 310007 008 005 002 03
012330 1917N 06041W 8425 01462 9960 +186 +164 319007 007 007 001 00
012400 1917N 06043W 8433 01455 9958 +189 +164 322008 008 005 002 03
012430 1917N 06045W 8428 01461 9957 +194 +166 329010 010 006 002 03
012500 1917N 06046W 8430 01458 9954 +197 +167 338012 014 006 000 00
012530 1917N 06048W 8429 01460 9959 +190 +169 349018 019 013 001 00
012600 1917N 06050W 8439 01454 9959 +195 +172 352024 025 022 002 00
012630 1917N 06051W 8426 01471 9961 +200 +173 352031 033 040 004 00
012700 1917N 06053W 8424 01476 9971 +188 +175 357038 040 043 002 00
012730 1917N 06055W 8438 01467 9979 +187 +176 358044 046 042 001 03
012800 1917N 06057W 8426 01485 9988 +181 +176 000046 047 042 003 03
$$
;
Pressure 995mb.
URNT15 KNHC 290128
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 22 20110929
011830 1920N 06024W 8430 01477 9992 +169 +160 173037 037 039 002 03
011900 1920N 06026W 8434 01469 9985 +172 +162 176035 036 040 003 00
011930 1919N 06028W 8425 01474 9980 +172 +160 174033 034 037 004 00
012000 1919N 06029W 8429 01466 9974 +175 +165 176030 032 030 004 00
012030 1919N 06031W 8424 01467 9967 +176 +171 174025 026 029 002 00
012100 1919N 06033W 8438 01448 9962 +179 +177 170017 020 026 002 00
012130 1918N 06034W 8429 01457 9955 +189 +173 169010 012 026 001 00
012200 1918N 06036W 8429 01458 9954 +190 +166 225003 004 002 001 03
012230 1917N 06038W 8425 01461 9957 +188 +163 304004 006 003 002 03
012300 1917N 06040W 8439 01450 9959 +189 +163 310007 008 005 002 03
012330 1917N 06041W 8425 01462 9960 +186 +164 319007 007 007 001 00
012400 1917N 06043W 8433 01455 9958 +189 +164 322008 008 005 002 03
012430 1917N 06045W 8428 01461 9957 +194 +166 329010 010 006 002 03
012500 1917N 06046W 8430 01458 9954 +197 +167 338012 014 006 000 00
012530 1917N 06048W 8429 01460 9959 +190 +169 349018 019 013 001 00
012600 1917N 06050W 8439 01454 9959 +195 +172 352024 025 022 002 00
012630 1917N 06051W 8426 01471 9961 +200 +173 352031 033 040 004 00
012700 1917N 06053W 8424 01476 9971 +188 +175 357038 040 043 002 00
012730 1917N 06055W 8438 01467 9979 +187 +176 358044 046 042 001 03
012800 1917N 06057W 8426 01485 9988 +181 +176 000046 047 042 003 03
$$
;
Pressure 995mb.
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expat2carib
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Re:
expat2carib wrote:Yes, moving NNW.
I still don't like that blob south of her though. Looks like all action is up there
Still feel like Ophelia is going to move away north with Ophelia 2 (the previously second low) stay and regenerate later...
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CrazyC83
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000
URNT15 KNHC 290138
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 23 20110929
012830 1917N 06058W 8425 01491 9989 +187 +175 005044 045 042 003 03
012900 1917N 06100W 8429 01493 9999 +183 +174 007043 043 040 003 00
012930 1917N 06102W 8436 01491 0010 +177 +173 006041 042 038 001 00
013000 1917N 06103W 8429 01504 0020 +168 //// 006040 040 035 003 01
013030 1917N 06105W 8438 01498 0029 +160 //// 007042 043 034 006 01
013100 1917N 06107W 8418 01519 0035 +155 //// 012044 045 034 004 01
013130 1917N 06109W 8410 01527 0041 +143 //// 010045 046 034 009 01
013200 1917N 06111W 8444 01500 0040 +150 //// 014044 046 033 003 01
013230 1917N 06114W 8437 01512 0043 +163 +150 013041 042 032 001 03
013300 1917N 06116W 8425 01526 0046 +162 +144 012040 040 032 002 00
013330 1918N 06119W 8427 01524 0045 +166 +145 014040 041 033 001 00
013400 1918N 06121W 8195 01769 0050 +153 +150 012037 039 033 002 03
013430 1917N 06123W 7609 02405 //// +128 //// 008035 036 /// /// 05
013500 1916N 06125W 7134 02947 //// +099 //// 360034 036 /// /// 05
013530 1915N 06127W 6676 03514 //// +068 //// 350034 035 /// /// 05
013600 1914N 06128W 6352 03922 0059 +046 //// 345031 032 /// /// 05
013630 1913N 06130W 6104 04247 0064 +024 //// 344031 033 /// /// 05
013700 1912N 06131W 5863 04561 0035 +009 //// 342023 026 /// /// 05
013730 1911N 06132W 5617 04902 0040 -009 //// 333021 022 /// /// 05
013800 1910N 06134W 5413 05216 0234 -027 //// 340025 026 /// /// 05
$$
;
Mission over.
URNT15 KNHC 290138
AF300 0716A OPHELIA HDOB 23 20110929
012830 1917N 06058W 8425 01491 9989 +187 +175 005044 045 042 003 03
012900 1917N 06100W 8429 01493 9999 +183 +174 007043 043 040 003 00
012930 1917N 06102W 8436 01491 0010 +177 +173 006041 042 038 001 00
013000 1917N 06103W 8429 01504 0020 +168 //// 006040 040 035 003 01
013030 1917N 06105W 8438 01498 0029 +160 //// 007042 043 034 006 01
013100 1917N 06107W 8418 01519 0035 +155 //// 012044 045 034 004 01
013130 1917N 06109W 8410 01527 0041 +143 //// 010045 046 034 009 01
013200 1917N 06111W 8444 01500 0040 +150 //// 014044 046 033 003 01
013230 1917N 06114W 8437 01512 0043 +163 +150 013041 042 032 001 03
013300 1917N 06116W 8425 01526 0046 +162 +144 012040 040 032 002 00
013330 1918N 06119W 8427 01524 0045 +166 +145 014040 041 033 001 00
013400 1918N 06121W 8195 01769 0050 +153 +150 012037 039 033 002 03
013430 1917N 06123W 7609 02405 //// +128 //// 008035 036 /// /// 05
013500 1916N 06125W 7134 02947 //// +099 //// 360034 036 /// /// 05
013530 1915N 06127W 6676 03514 //// +068 //// 350034 035 /// /// 05
013600 1914N 06128W 6352 03922 0059 +046 //// 345031 032 /// /// 05
013630 1913N 06130W 6104 04247 0064 +024 //// 344031 033 /// /// 05
013700 1912N 06131W 5863 04561 0035 +009 //// 342023 026 /// /// 05
013730 1911N 06132W 5617 04902 0040 -009 //// 333021 022 /// /// 05
013800 1910N 06134W 5413 05216 0234 -027 //// 340025 026 /// /// 05
$$
;
Mission over.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011
AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED. PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 64 KT...WITH BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES NEAR 50
KT. THUS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 50 KT. ALTHOUGH THE
STORM HAS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A LARGER CURVED BAND IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. MICROWAVE DATA...HOWEVER...DOES SHOW A
BETTER-ORGANIZED CORE WITH PERHAPS THE PRIMITIVE STAGES OF AN EYE.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT OPHELIA HAS INTENSIFIED A GOOD DEAL TODAY
DESPITE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. AS THIS TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF OPHELIA PULLS
AWAY...UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BUILD IN CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE
AND CAUSE THE SHEAR TO RELAX TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION WOULD SEEM TO BE THE BEST BET...AND THE NHC
FORECAST COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE IF AN INNER CORE BECOMES
ORGANIZED. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT
SHOWS A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS...SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER DAY 3 DUE TO COOLING WATERS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT CYCLONE IS MOVING A BIT SLOWER...
ABOUT 325/5. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON
OPHELIA PICKING UP SOME FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DUE
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A LARGE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. WHILE THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW...IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT AFTER DAY 3...AND THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT. THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL HAS BEEN THE ECMWF SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY BETWEEN THAT MODEL
AND THE HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 19.4N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 20.3N 61.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 21.9N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 23.7N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 26.1N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 32.5N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 43.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 54.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011
AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED. PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 64 KT...WITH BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES NEAR 50
KT. THUS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 50 KT. ALTHOUGH THE
STORM HAS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A LARGER CURVED BAND IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. MICROWAVE DATA...HOWEVER...DOES SHOW A
BETTER-ORGANIZED CORE WITH PERHAPS THE PRIMITIVE STAGES OF AN EYE.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT OPHELIA HAS INTENSIFIED A GOOD DEAL TODAY
DESPITE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. AS THIS TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF OPHELIA PULLS
AWAY...UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BUILD IN CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE
AND CAUSE THE SHEAR TO RELAX TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION WOULD SEEM TO BE THE BEST BET...AND THE NHC
FORECAST COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE IF AN INNER CORE BECOMES
ORGANIZED. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT
SHOWS A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS...SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER DAY 3 DUE TO COOLING WATERS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT CYCLONE IS MOVING A BIT SLOWER...
ABOUT 325/5. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON
OPHELIA PICKING UP SOME FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DUE
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A LARGE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. WHILE THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW...IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT AFTER DAY 3...AND THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT. THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL HAS BEEN THE ECMWF SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY BETWEEN THAT MODEL
AND THE HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 19.4N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 20.3N 61.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 21.9N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 23.7N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 26.1N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 32.5N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 43.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 54.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Wow, that is a heck of a sudden burst right over the LLC.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 290115.jpg
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 290115.jpg
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like there was a strong boundary-layer inversion in place creating a convective cap.
The cap must have been broken and hence the sudden flare.
At that time, it looks like the core was compressed as well with max temp anomaly at about 9 km.
Will be interesting to see if it snaps back to the 12 km level.
The cap must have been broken and hence the sudden flare.
At that time, it looks like the core was compressed as well with max temp anomaly at about 9 km.
Will be interesting to see if it snaps back to the 12 km level.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER...AND THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT WAS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IS DIMINISHING. THIS INDICATES THAT OPHELIA
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE STRENGTHENING...
HOWEVER...PENDING VISIBLE IMAGERY LATER THIS MORNING THE
INTENSITY...IS HELD AT 50 KT. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT OPHELIA...SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR IS PREDICTED
IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW OPHELIA TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT THE LOW END AND THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFDN
MODELS AT THE HIGH END. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 72 HOURS AS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND
INCREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING EMBEDDED
IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE BY DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
OPHELIA BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION...330/6...IS ONLY A TAD FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS REMAIN IN FARILY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OPHELIA SHOULD MOVE
FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA. THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES IN THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST. NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AS
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DIFFER ON HOW OPHELIA WILL INTERACT WITH A
HIGH-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 20.0N 61.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 21.1N 61.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 22.8N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 24.9N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 27.8N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 35.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 46.5N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 54.0N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER...AND THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT WAS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IS DIMINISHING. THIS INDICATES THAT OPHELIA
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE STRENGTHENING...
HOWEVER...PENDING VISIBLE IMAGERY LATER THIS MORNING THE
INTENSITY...IS HELD AT 50 KT. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT OPHELIA...SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR IS PREDICTED
IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW OPHELIA TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT THE LOW END AND THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFDN
MODELS AT THE HIGH END. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 72 HOURS AS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND
INCREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING EMBEDDED
IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE BY DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
OPHELIA BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION...330/6...IS ONLY A TAD FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS REMAIN IN FARILY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OPHELIA SHOULD MOVE
FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA. THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES IN THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST. NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AS
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DIFFER ON HOW OPHELIA WILL INTERACT WITH A
HIGH-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 20.0N 61.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 21.1N 61.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 22.8N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 24.9N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 27.8N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 35.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 46.5N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 54.0N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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brunota2003
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Well, I don't see any signs of rapid intensification, but significant strengthening later this afternoon and into tonight seems likely to occur...probably on the order of 20 to 25 knots through tomorrow morning (RI is >30 knots in 24 hours). Thinking maybe 70 or 75 knots by 8 am tomorrow morning.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
12z Best Track
Up to 60kts.
AL, 16, 2011092912, , BEST, 0, 205N, 616W, 60, 991, TS
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
Up to 60kts.
AL, 16, 2011092912, , BEST, 0, 205N, 616W, 60, 991, TS
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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for me, it looks like a hurricane already. 
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It's a beautiful storm, I wouldn't discount a peak intensity of 100 kt, but cat 2 is more probable IMO.
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