ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

Rina has become a hurricane. I would not be surprised if it is a major hurricane by tomorrow. It is in the same area Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. However, conditions are not as ideal. I read at Jeff Master's blog that Rina is the second fastest intensifying hurricane after Humberto.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cranica]

That's a whole lot of overshooting tops for d-min. Tonight should be real interesting.

[wzrgirl1]

I am reading some of these posts over and over and trying to comprehend the stronger it gets the more poleward it goes theory. People have said different reasons but trying to get the scientific reasoning behind it, and I can't grasp it. Can someone try and enlighten me please as it pertains to Rina? Thanks!

[jinftl]

In a year where dry air has prevented the large # of storms we have seen from intensifying into hurricanes, Rina has done an aboutface with that trend....from Dr. Jeff Masters blog this afternoon:

"Rina intensified into a hurricane just 21 hours after the first advisory was issued for it as a tropical depression. This is the second fastest such intensification since record keeping began in 1851. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 holds the Atlantic record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours."

Last visible of the day looking mighty impressive...almost looks like a top that is winding itself up.

[cycloneye]

For those members who may be inquiring about when is the next recon mission,it departs from Keesler base at 10:45 PM EDT.

[Cranica]

I am reading some of these posts over and over and trying to comprehend the stronger it gets the more poleward it goes theory. People have said different reasons but trying to get the scientific reasoning behind it, and I can't grasp it. Can someone try and enlighten me please as it pertains to Rina? Thanks!

In general, this is true - as I understand it, it has to do with the layer of upper-level winds that steers the storm. More intense storms tend to be taller, and are steered by a higher layer of the atmosphere, and in general in the tropics those winds tend to be blowing poleward. In this case, though, the lower-level flow is more poleward, and the upper-level winds are out of the west. Big fat disclaimer on this, I'm just trying to clarify what I've been seeing.

[pavelbure224]

Any update on the GFS?

[jinftl]

To my understanding (non-pro met view at that)...I believe it is based on stronger systems being more influenced by the upper level environment and steering patterns, whereas weaker systems are driven more by the low-level flow. In the case of Cape Verde systems, it has been shown that the faster systems develop off of the coast africa, the more likely they will become fish, whereas weaker systems can sneak much further west (i.e., Katrina & Rita...didn't develop until they reached the Bahamas).

In the case of Rina, the approaching trough is an upper level change in the pattern, so the more likely she will be steered by that, as opposed to a weaker system lingering in the NW Caribbean.

As recent as this afternoon, Dr. Jeff Masters stated in his blog: "A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased."

I am reading some of these posts over and over and trying to comprehend the stronger it gets the more poleward it goes theory. People have said different reasons but trying to get the scientific reasoning behind it, and I can't grasp it. Can someone try and enlighten me please as it pertains to Rina? Thanks!

[wzrgirl1]

To my understanding (non-pro met view at that)...I believe it is based on stronger systems being more influenced by the upper level environment and steering patterns, whereas weaker systems are driven more by the low-level flow. In the case of Cape Verde systems, it has been shown that the faster systems develop off of the coast africa, the more likely they will become fish, whereas weaker systems can sneak much further west (i.e., Katrina & Rita...didn't develop until they reached the Bahamas).

In the case of Rina, the approaching trough is an upper level change in the pattern, so the more likely she will be steered by that, as opposed to a weaker system lingering in the NW Caribbean.

As recent as this afternoon, Dr. Jeff Masters stated in his blog: "A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased."

I am reading some of these posts over and over and trying to comprehend the stronger it gets the more poleward it goes theory. People have said different reasons but trying to get the scientific reasoning behind it, and I can't grasp it. Can someone try and enlighten me please as it pertains to Rina? Thanks!

I appreciate everyone's input thanks!!

[cycloneye]

Latest microwave image made at 6:53 PM EDT.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Any update on the GFS?

The 18z GFS gets Rina a little stronger but not that much and it takes it up to the northeastern tip of the Yucatan where it starts it towards the NE but loops it back into the Caribbean where it eventually goes into Belize and dies.

[NDG]

Is this right? One of the local TV meteorologists just said if Rina is a strong storm she should pass to the south of here in SWFla and Fla. all together. I'm not sure of this. Is it not stronger more poleward (not depending on fronts etc.). Why would it stay more south if it is a strong storm? I know about the front coming and turning it, but why would its strength keep it south? Maybe I'm missing something but I could be wrong. Again!

Local Mets have been really funny with this storm, last night my local NBC station's met said: "We now have Rina in western Caribbean, moving NW towards Belize and Honduras" lol
This afternoon when I got home my local Fox station's Met said: "Don't pay attention to these models that are showing a FL bound storm, these models are eroneous because they do not see how strong the storm is" Lol, he did not realize that it is the other way around.

[NDG]

Any word from JB lately? His adrenaline has to be popping, lol.

[Recurve]

Holy Humberto Batman, did this thing come together fast. A blob to a depression to a storm to a hurricane so fast, as Masters pointed out. I'm glad it's relatively small. The cold tops and banding are sure impressive for such a young storm.

Wouldn't you know this weekend I'm set to move out of the Keys, and the tropics are setting up for a possible kick in the behind. Looks like I might be putting up shutters before I finish packing.

[jasons2k]

Probability of 34kt (39 mph), 50kt (58 mph), 64kt (74mph) winds as of 5pm advisory across Florida...probabilities continue to inch up, esp across the Keys and SW Florida...Key West now has a 1 in 5 probability of sustained tropical storm force winds in the next 120 hours:

The key reason is the passage of time, not a shift in track, and 120-hours is now closer to any potential landfall. This time yesterday 120 hours was outside the window for any potential US landfall...

[Vortex]

For those members who may be inquiring about when is the next recon mission,it departs from Keesler base at 10:45 PM EDT.

Thanks Luis.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

The 18z GFDL gets Rina up to 150 mph in the Caribbean before brushing the NE Yucatan and then hitting extreme South Florida at about 85-90 mph

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at that microwave image (it's the best I got to go off of), I predict RI to start between 1 and 3 am EDT (not including the quick spin up today that occurred). Judging by the factors involved, the only negative mentioned by the NHC is dry air, I predict an intensity of 120 to 125 knots by 7 pm tomorrow (big leap, feel like this one will be a big one, though). Tonight's recon very well be quite interesting, depending on how long they are in the system. However, tomorrow's flights will be even more telling. Here's to hoping I'm wrong, but I'm afraid this one is going to be a text book case of a NW Caribbean system undergoing a cycle of Rapid Intensification.

This is cool, never thought I'd be predicting while in the field...keep posting the microwave imagery! It isn't CIMSS, but pretty much just as good at this point.

[FireRat]

Dude, that think looks set to bomb overnight! I think we're all going to wake up to a big surprise tomorrow. Looking ominous, that's for sure.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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The 18z HWRF takes Rina up to about 105 mph also brushes the tip of the Yucatan and then goes through the keys but only as a minimal tropical storm.