ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[AdamFirst]

I disagree with the placement of the NHC 5pm adv. where they put the left over emily... if u look at there map.. they put in in the channel between Cuba and Haiti. I think the newly forming emily is about to exit Haiti into the Atlantic/Bahamas. Making an image to show what i think is going on

I think they threw a dart on the map at the hurricane center and just decided "that's where it is".

[psyclone]

While everyone is partying and watching Star Trek, they should be gently reminded that the exact same thing happened with Gustav in 2008 -- it looked like it was gone, and then a tiny micro LLC popped off the southwestern tip of Haiti and moved south underneath and around Jamaica.

-- If you're watching ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov, pull out to a medium zoom and keep an eye on the twists and kinks near Jamaica.

i'll give you credit for tenacity...something that emily eventually ran out of. good riddance to this clunker of an excuse for a storm.

[StormClouds63]

The legend of King Euro grows...

Wx_Warrior is smiling somewhere.

[Yellow Evan]

I disagree with the placement of the NHC 5pm adv. where they put the left over emily... if u look at there map.. they put in in the channel between Cuba and Haiti. I think the newly forming emily is about to exit Haiti into the Atlantic/Bahamas. Making an image to show what i think is going on

If you look really closely the placed ex-Emily south of Cuba. If it went north, it would run into Cuba and then FL.

[mutley]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

I called it, it's over the roach!

You did indeed call it, and I didn't think so at the time. Kudos!

[tolakram]

A lot of rotation out there.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[mutley]

I disagree with the placement of the NHC 5pm adv. where they put the left over emily... if u look at there map.. they put in in the channel between Cuba and Haiti. I think the newly forming emily is about to exit Haiti into the Atlantic/Bahamas. Making an image to show what i think is going on

I think they threw a dart on the map at the hurricane center and just decided "that's where it is".

Emily was dismembered today, and body parts scattered around. Take your pick which to follow. And I wouldn't be shocked if one of the pieces became zombie Emily.

[jlauderdal]

The legend of King Euro grows...

so next storm we will all be euro hugging,

[capepoint]

Well now what do we do? After having been glued to the computer for 3 or 4 days, I can't remember what else there is to do...lol

[stormhunter7]

This is what i see... I think... NOT OFFICIAL!

[Stormcenter]

Good point

The ECMWF is given big props at 5 PM.

THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

I'm curious, since she did develop, but then degenerated, how can they give it a big win when it was only half right?

[Stormcenter]

Good point

The ECMWF is given big props at 5 PM.

THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

I'm curious, since she did develop, but then degenerated, how can they give it a big win when it was only half right?

[artist]

Good pint

The ECMWF is given big props at 5 PM.

THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.

I'm curious, since she did develop, but then degenerated, how can they give it a big win when it was only half right?

or are they saying there really never was an Emily?

[Stormcenter]

Yeah I know we have a lot of season left but so far something it just not clicking out there which is great news for everyone living along the coastal U.S. I'm also not so sure that will change anytime soon. IMO We shall see.

[Jevo]

In other news the NHC has decided to reformat the HWRF servers to just play World of Warcraft... It may prove better at that than it is at creating forecast models

[HurricaneBelle]

"Remnants of Emily" sounds like the name of a bad emo band.

[AdamFirst]

"Remnants of Emily" sounds like the name of a bad emo band.

They're now playing their number 1 hit..."Shredding over Hispaniola"

[ozonepete]

Just got home from work and got a new look at it. I think it looks like an impressive tropical disturbance that we'd all be following if it just popped up recently. There;s plenty of vorticity there still and conditions are pretty good for redevlopment north of eastern Cuba so who knows? There have been plenty of TCs that got ravaged by those mountains and then reformed again in the area ex-Emily is headed.
Wxman57, I know you said they don't remember what they were before, but I think they do in one sense. We've all seen TCs that seemed really healthy and then hit bad conditions and completely dissipated, while other times TCs that seemed quite similar broke down under the same bad conditions but then regenerated when conditions improved again. In most cases I think that's because the "memory" is the mid- and upper level structure, especially the mid-level. If conditions are favorable for the MLC but not for the entire storm, and the MLC had a very good amount of vorticity with it, then when it hits good conditions again it has a much better chance than systems that had poor mid-level conditions to begin with. If you look at the latest satellite loops, Emily's MLC is doin' fine, and I can easily see why it might get going again as it moves over water.

[Tropics Guy]

Guess we have to keep on talking about the "remanants of Emily" as she is the only game in town, the rest of the Atlantic is dead right now, as far as tropical development........

TG

[mutley]

Just got home from work and got a new look at it. I think it looks like an impressive tropical disturbance that we'd all be following if it just popped up recently. There;s plenty of vorticity there still and conditions are pretty good for redevlopment north of eastern Cuba so who knows? There have been plenty of TCs that got ravaged by those mountains and then reformed again in the area ex-Emily is headed.
Wxman57, I know you said they don't remember what they were before, but I think they do in one sense. We've all seen TCs that seemed really healthy and then hit bad conditions and completely dissipated, while other times TCs that seemed quite similar broke down under the same bad conditions but then regenerated when conditions improved again. In most cases I think that's because the "memory" is the mid- and upper level structure, especially the mid-level. If conditions are favorable for the MLC but not for the entire storm, and the MLC had a very good amount of vorticity with it, then when it hits good conditions again it has a much better chance than systems that had poor mid-level conditions to begin with. If you look at the latest satellite loops, Emily's MLC is doin' fine, and I can easily see why it might get going again as it moves over water.

Well, it's either going to do that, or there will be no hint tomorrow morning, that she ever existed. I can't wait to see what happens.