ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261056
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 17 20110826
104630 2938N 07711W 7525 02039 9483 +184 +183 218066 068 067 003 00
104700 2937N 07710W 7525 02055 9501 +183 +182 215074 079 074 004 00
104730 2935N 07708W 7528 02072 9523 +181 +179 217083 084 077 005 00
104800 2934N 07706W 7529 02090 9541 +188 +168 219083 084 074 003 00
104830 2933N 07705W 7527 02112 9567 +184 +154 219085 085 068 003 00
104900 2931N 07704W 7527 02129 9587 +180 +167 214088 089 068 002 00
104930 2930N 07702W 7527 02142 9602 +179 +159 215091 092 068 002 00
105000 2929N 07701W 7528 02156 9616 +182 +153 216090 091 068 003 00
105030 2928N 07659W 7528 02168 9622 +191 +153 217090 090 068 001 00
105100 2927N 07658W 7527 02178 9634 +189 +153 220090 091 068 001 00
105130 2925N 07657W 7528 02187 9644 +191 +150 221088 089 069 002 00
105200 2924N 07655W 7527 02199 9669 +174 +156 222088 090 070 000 00
105230 2923N 07654W 7524 02215 9689 +163 +162 221090 091 069 001 00
105300 2921N 07652W 7526 02225 9704 +161 +159 220098 100 069 001 00
105330 2920N 07651W 7524 02239 9715 +163 +158 219107 110 070 002 00
105400 2919N 07649W 7528 02244 9729 +158 +163 219111 112 069 002 00
105430 2918N 07648W 7530 02251 9739 +157 //// 218108 109 068 006 01
105500 2916N 07646W 7530 02260 9748 +159 +160 218106 107 068 005 00
105530 2915N 07645W 7521 02276 9762 +151 //// 216103 105 065 008 01
105600 2914N 07644W 7533 02271 9775 +146 //// 214104 105 067 007 01

[littlevince]

000
URNT12 KWBC 261102
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 26/1044Z
B. 29 DEG 46 MIN N
77 DEG 20 MIN W
C. NA
D. 75 KT
E. 311 DEG 36 NM
F. 065 DEG 89 KT
G. 312 DEG 53 NM
H. 943 MB
I. 14 C/2460 M
J. 21 C/2437 M
K. 18 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2609A IRENE OB 15
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 111KTS SE QUAD 1054Z

[TheBurn]

11:10Z VIS/IR...

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261106
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 18 20110826
105630 2913N 07642W 7532 02279 9782 +148 //// 214100 102 065 006 01
105700 2911N 07641W 7527 02293 9794 +145 //// 214097 097 064 007 01
105730 2910N 07640W 7522 02308 9804 +145 +147 215097 098 063 005 00
105800 2909N 07638W 7521 02316 9810 +147 +148 214097 097 062 007 00
105830 2908N 07637W 7522 02321 9824 +141 //// 216095 095 061 010 01
105900 2907N 07636W 7522 02328 9828 +142 //// 215095 096 062 010 01
105930 2905N 07634W 7522 02333 9832 +145 //// 214095 095 062 011 01
110000 2904N 07633W 7519 02342 9836 +146 //// 213093 094 061 011 01
110030 2903N 07632W 7520 02347 9842 +147 //// 214094 095 061 011 01
110100 2902N 07630W 7522 02350 9845 +152 +153 214093 093 060 010 00
110130 2900N 07629W 7511 02369 9847 +156 +151 213091 092 060 007 00
110200 2859N 07627W 7519 02367 9854 +155 +153 214089 090 061 006 00
110230 2858N 07626W 7522 02368 9862 +154 +151 215089 090 060 006 00
110300 2857N 07625W 7530 02364 9867 +154 +151 216086 088 059 006 00
110330 2855N 07623W 7518 02381 9875 +147 //// 219084 085 055 008 01
110400 2854N 07622W 7521 02382 9885 +142 //// 218086 088 054 007 01
110430 2853N 07621W 7497 02412 9896 +135 //// 214088 089 054 009 01
110500 2851N 07620W 7500 02413 9896 +139 //// 214084 085 055 008 01
110530 2850N 07619W 7517 02398 9904 +139 //// 213085 086 056 003 01
110600 2849N 07617W 7530 02389 9913 +138 +138 212083 084 054 003 00

[Bad_Hurricane]

I think is ERC on the way and Irene could easily blow up again in hot water!

[mulley]

Exactly wxman57 and jtsmart.
Dr. Frank cautioned us here at our station in 2008 from the very get-go,
that he was seriously concerned with the storm surge from Cat 2 Ike's
large and broad size.
And as we later learned, the Bolivar Peninsula was wiped off the map.
Even though Irene may "only" be a cat 2 now- you can't get complacent.
Irene appears to be similar, we were 20 to 30 miles to the west side of Ike
and still experienced 92mph winds at Hobby Airport.
Stay on top of it gang. Stay safe East Coast.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261116
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 19 20110826
110630 2847N 07616W 7529 02395 9923 +133 +136 211082 083 055 001 00
110700 2846N 07615W 7531 02396 9924 +136 +132 211080 081 054 001 00
110730 2845N 07613W 7529 02404 9927 +135 //// 211080 081 053 006 01
110800 2844N 07611W 7528 02407 9930 +136 //// 212076 078 051 004 01
110830 2843N 07610W 7531 02406 9933 +137 +140 212077 080 052 001 00
110900 2841N 07608W 7531 02410 9944 +132 +134 212080 080 051 001 00
110930 2840N 07607W 7529 02415 9951 +130 +119 214079 080 052 001 00
111000 2839N 07605W 7525 02425 9947 +138 +119 212079 080 054 001 00
111030 2838N 07604W 7529 02424 9949 +142 +114 213081 081 055 000 00
111100 2837N 07602W 7531 02425 9957 +136 +121 214080 080 /// /// 03
111130 2837N 07559W 7531 02427 9963 +130 +128 214081 081 /// /// 03
111200 2840N 07558W 7528 02431 9965 +128 +133 211080 081 053 006 03
111230 2842N 07557W 7534 02421 9958 +132 //// 205084 086 053 007 01
111300 2845N 07556W 7527 02426 9957 +129 //// 206086 087 054 007 01
111330 2847N 07555W 7502 02451 9954 +127 //// 200088 089 056 013 05
111400 2850N 07555W 7532 02415 9951 +130 //// 198088 089 057 008 01
111430 2853N 07555W 7498 02452 9947 +130 //// 196084 086 058 011 01
111500 2856N 07555W 7504 02438 9937 +135 //// 198087 089 057 016 01
111530 2858N 07554W 7486 02459 9936 +134 //// 204088 089 060 008 01
111600 2901N 07554W 7512 02425 9930 +136 //// 202088 089 057 005 01

[setxsunshine]

Wxman is exactly right. I live about 120 miles NE of Galveston, and am about 60 miles inland. During Ike we had reported sustained winds of around 70mph with gusts reported around 100mph. My property was woods that we cleared for our house so there are still lots of trees. We had 7-10 trees fall during Ike (after having lost around 20 during Rita). The winds howled for hours. Not something you soon forget. Fortunately, my area had electricity restored quickly, unlike during Rita when we were without for 10 days, and some of my neighbors in our city were out even longer.
Bridge City, which is about 90 miles from Galveston, had nearly every home flooded during Ike. For those of you thinking you may have dodged a bullet since Irene 'appears to be weakening', I urge you to read the facts about Ike since the storms seem comparable. Look at the storm surge for the upper TX and LA coasts. This is definately not a storm to be taken lightly.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ms-word/TCR-AL092008_Ike_3May10.doc

[mutley]

I think is ERC on the way and Irene could easily blow up again in hot water!

Wow, she is really big. I certainly hope she doesn't start intensifying again. It's going to be bad enough as it is.

[tolakram]

live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Notice how the left side seems to be improving a bit this morning. Reading some of the comments I am reminded of Ike, where people assumed looks were everything and if it was a big messy ball of convection it must not be that strong. Looks are definitely not everything when it comes to hurricanes. Please do not let your guard down.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Currently, Irene is most closely similar to 2008's Hurricane Ike in size and intensity. Irene may be a little larger and stronger than Ike when it strikes the Carolinas then tracks northward along the coast. I don't think anyone in its path is "lucky".

Indeed, the hurricane size is very impressive and I'd also be hard pushed to describe anything getting hit as luck. Its got quite a large area of high winds as the models correctly predicted, its a very impressive hurricane!

[HugoCameandLeft]

Question - When looking at the various models to determine predicted wind impact in Charleston, it appears that they all believe that the wind field will compress once it gets to shore - in other words, it will appear that a certain wind field will overlap this area, but then the radius changes to essentially mimic the shoreline in the next frame. Is there a reason for this?

[KWT]

Good hit on the 00z GFS on LI in 2 days time, hits central LI as well so NYC would almost certainly get some good winds and probably gusts getting close to hurricane strength.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261126
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 20 20110826
111630 2904N 07554W 7517 02419 9926 +140 +143 202085 086 056 006 00
111700 2907N 07553W 7507 02429 9923 +140 +145 201085 086 057 010 00
111730 2909N 07553W 7505 02431 9925 +138 +136 196086 088 057 003 00
111800 2912N 07552W 7505 02431 9930 +133 +133 194088 089 058 004 00
111830 2915N 07551W 7513 02419 9925 +136 +137 191087 088 056 010 00
111900 2917N 07550W 7529 02400 9926 +136 +137 189088 088 059 009 00
111930 2920N 07550W 7524 02405 9929 +130 //// 190090 091 061 007 05
112000 2923N 07548W 7514 02415 9921 +135 //// 186089 092 060 008 01
112030 2925N 07547W 7513 02419 9926 +133 //// 184091 092 058 009 01
112100 2927N 07545W 7519 02414 9931 +131 //// 185090 091 057 006 01
112130 2929N 07543W 7518 02416 9932 +133 //// 182087 089 057 009 01
112200 2931N 07541W 7517 02421 9935 +132 //// 181087 088 057 009 01
112230 2933N 07540W 7520 02420 9937 +133 //// 181089 089 056 005 01
112300 2935N 07538W 7516 02428 9943 +131 //// 181089 091 053 007 01
112330 2937N 07536W 7519 02427 9942 +135 //// 178087 088 055 006 01
112400 2939N 07534W 7502 02447 9942 +136 //// 174086 089 052 013 01
112430 2941N 07532W 7526 02424 9945 +138 +142 179083 085 053 008 00
112500 2943N 07530W 7513 02444 9946 +140 //// 176081 085 057 030 01
112530 2945N 07529W 7490 02460 9938 +142 //// 180092 095 054 022 01
112600 2947N 07527W 7496 02456 9935 +142 //// 180091 100 057 019 01


100kt FL at 100 miles from center

[O Town]

live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Notice how the left side seems to be improving a bit this morning. Reading some of the comments I am reminded of Ike, where people assumed looks were everything and if it was a big messy ball of convection it must not be that strong. Looks are definitely not everything when it comes to hurricanes. Please do not let your guard down.

It does seem like its trying, but when I first saw it this morning it looks like someone sliced off the western side of the storm. Things could change quickly though.

[CronkPSU]

i've seen in here and from TWC, that it is so big that it will take a while to "power down"...isn't the same also true, that because it is so big and even though it is or may be going through strengthening conditions, that it will also take a long time to power up because of its size?

[GCANE]

Irene has a couple problems:

1) Anti-cyclone is to the south of her and she is tracking away from it.
2) TUTT in the east GOM is crimping equatorward outflow channel.

Looking at WV, there seems to be a moistening of the GOM TUTT indicating it is weakening.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

This could down the road help Irene's outflow.

The anti-cyclone is still an issue.

It moved closer yesterday afternoon which helped the presentation we saw last evening.

Now it has retreated.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

A TC that tracks away from an anti-cyclone will have its PV column compressed vertically which will cause it to spin down.

Hard to forecast were the anti-cyclone will move. It is more a dynamics of UL temps.

Watch and see.

[JtSmarts]

i've seen in here and from TWC, that it is so big that it will take a while to "power down"...isn't the same also true, that because it is so big and even though it is or may be going through strengthening conditions, that it will also take a long time to power up because of its size?

That's true. Ike took forever to get stronger because of his large size and inner dynamics. He really didn't start to develop a classic structure until right at landfall. I expect Irene to do the same, although according to recon if she only has FLV winds a bit stronger it would probably be enough to reupgrade to Cat 3.

[KWT]

Shear is a problem but really alot like Ike the damage is now with regards to size, its a big system and because of that much of the east coast is going to get effects from Irene even if they do manage to miss the core.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE TAKING AIM AT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD
BETWEEN CATEGORY TWO AND THREE AS IT REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST
COAST BY LATE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST
REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINA...EASTERN
MARYLAND... DELAWARE...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...LONG ISLAND...WESTERN CONNECTICUT...AND
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN