ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[AJC3]

It looks like the old low level vortex of Emily can be seen as a cluster of storms with an overshooting top currently moving across the Tiburon peninsula.

[sponger]

I agree that Emily does have a decent chance as conditions will improve. I am rooting for her as she is a fighter. Not a 250 lb line backer but a small tough cookie non the less!


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[artist]

It looks like the old low level vortex of Emily can be seen as a cluster of storms with an overshooting top currently moving across the Tiburon peninsula.

willing to give what chances you think she has of regenerating?

[AJC3]

It looks like the old low level vortex of Emily can be seen as a cluster of storms with an overshooting top currently moving across the Tiburon peninsula.

willing to give what chances you think she has of regenerating?

Seriously though, I think the remnant wave will remain very active (convectively speaking) once it moves into the SE Bahamas, and will probably make a run at coming back near/east of FL.

First let's see what the convection along the wave axis looks like after another 24+ hours

[artist]

It looks like the old low level vortex of Emily can be seen as a cluster of storms with an overshooting top currently moving across the Tiburon peninsula.

willing to give what chances you think she has of regenerating?

Seriously though, I think the remnant wave will remain very active (convectively speaking) once it moves into the SE Bahamas, and will probably make a run at coming back near/east of FL.

First let's see what the convection along the wave axis looks like after another 24+ hours

love the 8 ball!
And thanks for your answer.

[stormreader]

Although I do wonder??? If Emily might still become something of a Cindy (from earlier this season). I look forward to Emily's remnants being absorbed by the trough off the Atlantic Coast and perhaps adding an extra blip of energy in that trough. In that case she might rebound to storm strength well offshore as she heads out into the North Atlantic.

Emily's remnants are still dying. Barely making rain at this point.

You may very well be right. But these impulses (waves) that come off Africa are stubborn little creatures. My point is that once she gets absorbed into the trough and is headed way offshore into no man's land in the middle of the Atlantic, her leftover energy my then reconsolidate and have to be upgraded again. But in that case she would just be a curiousity.

[blp]

If it means anything the GFS is bringing Emily back starting at 30hr on the 18z.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif

[blp]

18z NAM brings it back at 12hr.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/18/images/nam_sl8_012l.gif

18z NOGAPS also closes it off in 24hr.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011080418&prod=z85&tau=024&set=Core

Our crazy Emily may just be hiding out for now...

[cycloneye]

The regular TWO returns with a 60% chance.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY ARE LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AT
10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Vortex]

18Z HWRF shifts west from 12 Z...about 60 miles east of palm beach at H+48



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2048.gif

[Vortex]

18Z HWRF landfall near Jupiter as hurricane .....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2060.gif

[Vortex]

trends this evening further west by some of the guidance....IMO, I expect regeneration tomorrow and near hurricane strength 30-50 miles east of South Florida Saturday evening...

[ozonepete]

The regular TWO returns with a 60% chance.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY ARE LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AT
10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Wow! Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

[Vortex]

I posted 18Z HWRF on the model page...HWRF back west brings what appears to be a cat 1 very close to Jupiter Saturday evening....I expect regeneration tomorrow...She's home free once she's out of Hispanolia...

[artist]

if indeed it happpens, people are really gonna be caught off guard.

[TwisterFanatic]

Wow.. Were people really expecting this thing to stay together if it moved over that mountainous region?

That's the feeling I get after reading the last several pages.

[cycloneye]

Wow.. Were people really expecting this thing to stay together if it moved over that mountainous region?

That's the feeling I get after reading the last several pages.

Even bones appeared.

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM EDT TWD.

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILY CLASHED WITH
THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE SYSTEM
BECAME A REMNANT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA
OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-75W INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE IN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REPORTED 12-24 HR RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING
FROM LESS THAN ONE INCH TO OVER 7 INCHES ACROSS DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NO
LONGER A SPECIAL FEATURE...IT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow.. Were people really expecting this thing to stay together if it moved over that mountainous region?

That's the feeling I get after reading the last several pages.

Even bones appeared.

Yep, Bones did appear...But even in Star Trek there was rebirth. Remember in the movies, I think it was after Wrath of Kahn, when Spock was reborn...

[Hurricaneman]

if indeed it happpens, people are really gonna be caught off guard.

Ive seen stranger things happen, Jeanne was the classic case of this happening