ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261136
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 21 20110826
112630 2949N 07525W 7494 02466 9948 +137 //// 178090 093 056 015 01
112700 2951N 07523W 7495 02468 9957 +132 //// 174093 094 057 017 01
112730 2953N 07522W 7466 02504 9961 +132 +134 166091 095 057 017 00
112800 2955N 07520W 7491 02478 9961 +139 +125 167090 091 058 017 00
112830 2957N 07518W 7525 02443 9965 +139 +129 167091 092 056 012 00
112900 2959N 07517W 7522 02451 9975 +134 +128 167091 091 055 008 00
112930 3001N 07515W 7540 02432 9976 +136 +130 169089 090 056 008 00
113000 3003N 07513W 7487 02495 9980 +131 //// 166090 091 058 008 01
113030 3005N 07512W 7502 02481 9981 +136 +130 169089 091 058 006 00
113100 3007N 07510W 7517 02467 9985 +138 +133 171089 090 057 006 00
113130 3008N 07508W 7508 02482 9984 +142 +119 171088 088 054 007 00
113200 3010N 07506W 7476 02520 9990 +138 +109 171087 088 /// /// 03
113230 3010N 07504W 7474 02524 0000 +130 +114 171087 088 /// /// 03
113300 3009N 07504W 7495 02502 9999 +132 +116 169086 087 /// /// 03
113330 3008N 07505W 7503 02491 9994 +136 +118 168086 087 053 007 03
113400 3008N 07507W 7526 02462 9990 +140 +121 163083 084 055 007 00
113430 3007N 07509W 7507 02482 9983 +143 +125 169084 084 056 006 03
113500 3006N 07511W 7505 02481 9984 +137 +122 170087 088 057 006 00
113530 3006N 07513W 7515 02465 9980 +136 +125 169087 087 057 005 00
113600 3005N 07514W 7516 02459 9978 +134 +125 168089 090 058 006 00

[chrisnnavarre]

I wouldn't let my guard down just yet, she'll still cross the gulf stream prior to making landfall, that's the scary thing about a storm this size. She could bomb just hours before impact and then carry that momentum all the way up the eastern seaboard. Not good....

I spent a lot of years in Norfolk, (retired Navy) and if the Navy is sending the entire second fleet to sea then they know the potential here. This is not a situation to take lightly.



http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http%3A//www.passageweather.com/globalmap.htm

[littlevince]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 261159
XXAA 76122 99240 70760 08046 99011 28623 21023 00098 27821 21024
92787 23024 23028 85521 18833 22526 70164 10457 21525 50589 05159
23024 40761 15556 24022 30972 29971 21516 25100 38960 19514 20248
51563 16509 15/// ///// 88999 77999
31313 09608 81137
61616 NOAA9 2509A IRENE OB 27
62626 SPL 2406N07598W 1154 MBL WND 21026 AEV 20801 DLM WND 22021
010154 WL150 20524 084 REL 2400N07605W 113742 SPG 2406N07599W 115
352 =
XXBB 76128 99240 70760 08046 00011 28623 11938 23409 22850 18833
33790 14413 44740 12456 55712 10433 66683 10064 77662 08058 88603
03456 99550 00750 11513 03759 22488 06356 33479 07558 44469 08350
55455 09360 66447 10150 77435 11558 88422 13144 99410 14159 11402
15350 22392 16159 33373 18942 44341 23756 55330 25359 66325 26172
77321 26577 88303 29375 99281 33160 11267 35362 22230 43761 33187
55365 44163 603//
21212 00011 21023 11957 22029 22850 22526 33695 21525 44541 23529
55480 24020 66446 21518 77414 24518 88365 25517 99329 22510 11321
21015 22269 21520 33258 19516 44240 20013 55234 18012 66222 19510
77178 00000 88167 06012 99161 02521 11154 01532
31313 09608 81137
61616 NOAA9 2509A IRENE OB 27
62626 SPL 2406N07598W 1154 MBL WND 21026 AEV 20801 DLM WND 22021
010154 WL150 20524 084 REL 2400N07605W 113742 SPG 2406N07599W 115
352 =

[deltadog03]

At this point...I doubt she gets any stronger....The problem will be with her size and when she decides to push out her winds as she weakens.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261146
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 22 20110826
113630 3004N 07516W 7522 02451 9977 +133 +125 168090 091 059 010 00
113700 3003N 07518W 7521 02450 9972 +135 +127 168091 092 059 014 00
113730 3002N 07519W 7526 02438 9970 +130 +130 164091 092 059 013 00
113800 3001N 07521W 7512 02450 9969 +124 //// 165091 092 057 016 01
113830 3001N 07523W 7510 02449 9960 +129 //// 166094 095 056 012 01
113900 3000N 07524W 7504 02452 9954 +130 //// 170090 092 058 011 01
113930 2959N 07526W 7504 02448 9947 +133 //// 172091 093 060 012 01
114000 2958N 07528W 7504 02442 9940 +134 //// 170092 094 063 018 01
114030 2958N 07529W 7506 02440 9934 +137 //// 168090 097 063 012 01
114100 2957N 07531W 7497 02446 9930 +138 //// 169085 091 062 018 01
114130 2957N 07533W 7470 02479 9932 +136 //// 170081 084 060 025 01
114200 2956N 07535W 7487 02458 9935 +133 //// 174089 090 059 017 01
114230 2956N 07538W 7498 02445 9938 +131 //// 173090 091 056 011 01
114300 2956N 07540W 7497 02444 9935 +131 //// 172093 094 055 014 01
114330 2956N 07542W 7512 02422 9927 +135 //// 170090 091 058 018 01
114400 2956N 07545W 7524 02404 9922 +134 //// 171091 096 062 018 01
114430 2956N 07547W 7502 02423 9916 +134 //// 173091 092 063 015 01
114500 2956N 07549W 7530 02384 9912 +133 //// 176091 092 062 014 01
114530 2956N 07551W 7513 02401 9901 +137 //// 177091 093 065 016 01
114600 2956N 07554W 7521 02386 9894 +139 //// 176094 096 064 014 01

[Frank2]

IMHO I just don't see this happening - when you look at the WV loop the zonal west-east weather pattern north of about 38N indicates that Irene will eventually move NE, not NNE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

my guess is that the NHC will start to move the cone eastward with the 11 a.m. advisory (again, just my guess)...

Frank

[tallywx]

When was the last time a recurving mature cyclone actually experienced an appreciable increase in strength while crossing the Gulf Stream? I always hear this as a rationale, but it seems an "excuse of last resort" if you examine empirical evidence, especially for cyclones whose potential is being capped by factors other than SST, like Irene.

The last storm I remember bombing out in this location is Hugo, but it wasn't in a recurve and still underneath a ridge. It also developed an amazing outflow jet which has little to do with SST. The fact that it happened to be over the Gulf Stream may be coincidental more than anything else.

[Okibeach]

Currently, Irene is most closely similar to 2008's Hurricane Ike in size and intensity. Irene may be a little larger and stronger than Ike when it strikes the Carolinas then tracks northward along the coast. I don't think anyone in its path is "lucky".

I was wondering how "physical size" is actually measured. I know they can pretty acurately determine the wind radius, but is that regarded as its size? Are the rotating bands of clouds that are already into NC, but not producing wind or rain considered as part of it?

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261156
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 23 20110826
114630 2956N 07556W 7530 02371 9888 +140 //// 177093 094 063 015 01
114700 2956N 07558W 7529 02369 9881 +141 //// 179090 091 062 020 01
114730 2956N 07600W 7527 02364 9874 +141 //// 178094 096 065 018 01
114800 2956N 07603W 7526 02360 9865 +145 //// 181095 097 067 014 01
114830 2956N 07605W 7526 02353 9857 +146 //// 185096 096 068 012 01
114900 2956N 07607W 7527 02346 9848 +148 //// 184097 098 068 011 01
114930 2956N 07609W 7528 02338 9844 +145 //// 183097 098 068 014 01
115000 2956N 07611W 7528 02332 9839 +145 //// 180099 100 067 016 01
115030 2956N 07613W 7526 02329 9831 +145 //// 181099 101 066 013 01
115100 2956N 07616W 7527 02321 9819 +150 //// 182101 102 066 008 01
115130 2957N 07618W 7528 02314 9812 +151 +155 182102 102 068 006 00
115200 2957N 07620W 7529 02305 9802 +154 +155 182104 105 069 005 00
115230 2957N 07622W 7528 02299 9795 +152 +156 182106 107 069 006 00
115300 2957N 07624W 7529 02290 9786 +153 +158 180108 108 070 005 00
115330 2957N 07626W 7527 02284 9779 +149 //// 182108 109 071 010 01
115400 2957N 07628W 7529 02273 9768 +151 //// 182108 109 072 011 01
115430 2957N 07630W 7528 02264 9762 +145 //// 183108 110 073 010 01
115500 2957N 07632W 7525 02258 9748 +149 //// 184111 112 075 011 01
115530 2957N 07634W 7528 02247 9739 +150 //// 187114 115 075 012 01
115600 2957N 07636W 7530 02234 9723 +154 //// 189112 115 076 014 01

[bob rulz]

Currently, Irene is most closely similar to 2008's Hurricane Ike in size and intensity. Irene may be a little larger and stronger than Ike when it strikes the Carolinas then tracks northward along the coast. I don't think anyone in its path is "lucky".

I was wondering how "physical size" is actually measured. I know they can pretty acurately determine the wind radius, but is that regarded as its size? Are the rotating bands of clouds that are already into NC, but not producing wind or rain considered as part of it?

Size is determined purely by the extent of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds.

[JtSmarts]

Your Daily JB Tweets

Warm water in the way and pics show spreading apart again of cirrus north of storm.. this is not done deepening Should get to 930 mb

Please dont misunderstand this. The lower wind with pressure that low is the storm adjusting before tightening. Public should not let down

People will get wrong impression. Watch the pressure and watch the eye next 24 hours as it comes into prime area for development!!!!

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261206
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 24 20110826
115630 2957N 07638W 7525 02229 9706 +159 //// 191111 112 072 014 01
115700 2957N 07640W 7528 02217 9697 +160 //// 191107 109 077 010 01
115730 2957N 07642W 7530 02209 9690 +160 //// 191103 104 076 007 01
115800 2957N 07644W 7532 02199 9682 +160 //// 190099 103 073 013 01
115830 2957N 07646W 7523 02202 9671 +165 +167 191095 095 075 006 00
115900 2957N 07648W 7529 02188 9661 +168 +166 191095 095 071 009 00
115930 2957N 07650W 7516 02191 9649 +163 //// 188096 097 071 013 01
120000 2957N 07652W 7498 02199 9633 +164 //// 190096 097 065 021 01
120030 2957N 07655W 7505 02176 9618 +166 +169 190097 097 071 015 00
120100 2958N 07657W 7502 02164 9601 +166 //// 191097 098 074 019 01
120130 2958N 07659W 7508 02142 9581 +168 //// 192094 095 073 039 05
120200 2959N 07701W 7502 02128 9560 +167 //// 195094 095 078 038 05
120230 2959N 07703W 7484 02121 9530 +169 //// 200090 097 076 018 05
120300 2959N 07705W 7482 02113 9506 +181 //// 201073 079 073 010 05
120330 3000N 07707W 7518 02058 9493 +183 //// 200061 066 063 008 01
120400 3001N 07709W 7517 02049 9481 +185 //// 202044 048 050 005 01
120430 3001N 07712W 7519 02040 9474 +184 //// 200035 037 038 005 01
120500 3002N 07714W 7518 02034 9469 +183 //// 196024 030 033 004 01
120530 3003N 07716W 7520 02034 9470 +183 //// 198012 015 030 003 01
120600 3003N 07718W 7516 02037 9460 +195 +186 227005 007 027 002 00

[Hogweed]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 12:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 11:45:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°00'N 77°19'W (30.N 77.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 230 miles (371 km) to the ENE (76°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,638m (8,655ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 299° at 70kts (From the WNW at ~ 80.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character (Undecoded): Ragged, Open S-W
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SW (226°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX STORM FL WIND AND MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 110 KT NE QUAD 11:57:40Z

[lester]

Recon is finding 110+ kt FL winds lately o_o

- לסטר

[Frank2]

I was in NYC for Hurricane Belle (1976) and thought smaller in size there was also a great deal of media interest (hype) - however the hurricane weakened as it approached Long Island and in the end the entire situation was not nearly as bad as feared - similar to Gloria (1985)...

Let's hope and pray for the best, but right now, IMHO, the current strong west-east zonal pattern north of 38N does seem to indicate that Irene will eventually move NE, not NNE - and that would mean a northerly wind in NYC and much better conditions overall...

Frank

[wxman57]

Currently, Irene is most closely similar to 2008's Hurricane Ike in size and intensity. Irene may be a little larger and stronger than Ike when it strikes the Carolinas then tracks northward along the coast. I don't think anyone in its path is "lucky".

I was wondering how "physical size" is actually measured. I know they can pretty acurately determine the wind radius, but is that regarded as its size? Are the rotating bands of clouds that are already into NC, but not producing wind or rain considered as part of it?

Size is determined purely by the extent of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds.

That's pretty much it, and it's the size of those wind fields that determines the storm surge height, NOT the Saffir-Simpson category. Using the SLOSH model to create surge graphics, I'd have to bump the storm category up to a SS Cat 4 to illustrate the surge height from a very large Category 2 hurricane, as the SLOSH model does not take into consideration storm size very well. It assumes an average sized hurricane with a radius of max winds of only 25nm.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261216
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 25 20110826
120630 3004N 07721W 7521 02030 9452 +206 +181 000000 001 023 003 00
120700 3004N 07723W 7516 02040 9453 +212 +176 356012 015 024 003 00
120730 3004N 07725W 7521 02041 9460 +212 +180 356027 034 036 003 00
120800 3004N 07728W 7516 02059 9469 +219 +177 352045 052 045 003 00
120830 3004N 07730W 7519 02076 9494 +213 +167 348052 053 048 002 00
120900 3004N 07732W 7516 02095 9509 +219 +152 348055 058 047 003 00
120930 3004N 07734W 7518 02108 9522 +222 +154 347056 057 045 002 00
121000 3004N 07736W 7520 02118 9532 +226 +150 345055 057 046 002 00
121030 3004N 07738W 7519 02128 9544 +225 +144 348057 058 047 000 00
121100 3004N 07740W 7520 02139 9557 +224 +139 351056 057 047 001 00
121130 3004N 07743W 7518 02151 9568 +226 +127 352057 057 047 003 00
121200 3004N 07745W 7517 02161 9577 +226 +126 354056 056 049 002 00
121230 3004N 07747W 7517 02169 9579 +235 +119 350054 055 051 002 00
121300 3004N 07749W 7516 02176 9583 +240 +118 349053 053 052 001 00
121330 3004N 07751W 7517 02189 9614 +212 +136 351051 052 049 004 00
121400 3004N 07754W 7518 02192 9626 +205 +142 357052 053 050 005 00
121430 3004N 07756W 7516 02203 9637 +200 +144 351061 066 053 003 00
121500 3004N 07758W 7527 02198 9665 +174 +159 347059 065 059 005 00
121530 3004N 07801W 7521 02218 9685 +162 //// 350055 057 063 006 01
121600 3004N 07803W 7508 02242 9694 +165 //// 351058 062 064 007 01

[chrisnnavarre]

When was the last time a recurving mature cyclone actually experienced an appreciable increase in strength while crossing the Gulf Stream? I always hear this as a rationale, but it seems an "excuse of last resort" if you examine empirical evidence, especially for cyclones whose potential is being capped by factors other than SST, like Irene.

The last storm I remember bombing out in this location is Hugo, but it wasn't in a recurve and still underneath a ridge. It also developed an amazing outflow jet which has little to do with SST. The fact that it happened to be over the Gulf Stream may be coincidental more than anything else.

Well there was Alex in 2004, so you need to check the record books a little better, the potential is certainly there for this thing to intensifiy before making landfall.



"In addition, the Gulf Stream can affect local storm systems that form or meander off the coast. As the currents of eddies often flow in the same direction as winds, the weather systems can intensify, feeding off the warmer water below it.

For this reason, the Gulf Stream current also has a remarkable albeit dangerous ability to feed and intensify hurricanes and tropical storms which gain strength when passing over warmer waters. This is a phenomenon seen several times along North Carolina's coast, the most recent being Hurricane Alex in 2004, which approached the coast as a moderate tropical storm. After encountering the warmer waters surrounding Hatteras Island, it made landfall as a category 1 Hurricane, intensifying just miles away from Cape Hatteras."

http://www.ncbeaches.com/Features/Weather/GulfStream/

[Aja]

A rain/wind outer band just came a cross Mt Pleasant. SC island bridge connector a short time ago & knocked power lines over and a power outage that should be back up in a few short hours. Wasn't thinking those outer bands were any worry or issue here to the west this early on.

[KWT]

Considering its state, the flight level winds of 111kts must be mighty tempting for the NHC to put it back upto major hurricane status again, its got to be pretty close. Pressure is up a little on the otherhand.