ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Kory]

There is no official LLC for the models to latch onto.

[Fyzn94]

I'm out of the loop on Emily what's the prognosis with what's left of the system?

The 8 PM TWO summarises what to expect.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY ARE LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AT
10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

I feel like this is just one of those "wait and see" scenarios. The forecasts for Emily flopped this morning, so I think she's very well unpredictable.

[Kory]

The MLC is moving due north from Hispaniola. So if anything regenerates its east of the forecast track.

[lonelymike]

I think I remember Rock actually looking at the NAM at one time during this mess. Props to KING EURO

[Special K]

Ran my boat between Palm Beach, Florida and West End, Grand Bahama Island over the past weekend. Water temps in the gulf stream were 85 degrees. Talk about regeneration potential. The stream is steaming.

[Nikki]

I hardly ever post here...I am a lurker, but there is no reason for people being rude to one another about how they feel. If you feel Emily has a chance to regenerate and that makes you feel like you need to prepare for her then by all means prepare, if she don't make you feel like you need to prepare then don't. We all have free will and can make our own decisions.

[lonelymike]

JB still beating this dead horse?

[Kory]

Ran my boat between Palm Beach, Florida and West End, Grand Bahama Island over the past weekend. Water temps in the gulf stream were 85 degrees. Talk about regeneration potential. The stream is steaming.

Regeneration takes a lot more than just water temperature. Its also the moisture in the atmosphere and shear needs to be down to minimal. Also, if we can even get a LLC under the MLC that is moving due north.

[AdamFirst]

JB still beating this dead horse?

JB hasn't tweeted since the NHC pulled the plug at 5. But he will be on FOX and Friends on Saturday morning trying to debunk global warming!

[amawea]

JB still beating this dead horse?

JB hasn't tweeted since the NHC pulled the plug at 5. But he will be on FOX and Friends on Saturday morning trying to debunk global warming!

Somebody needs to.

[stormhunter7]

Interesting the 00Z runs went with the area i highlighted in one of the images this afternoon i posted!

Date: Aug. 5, 2011 0:00 Z (Friday)
Coordinates: 19.6N 73.2W
Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa)
Wind speed (1 min. avg.): 25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)
Location: 93 statue miles (149 km) to the NW (322°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1012 mb. (29.89 inHg | 1012 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 150 nautical miles. (173 miles | 278 kilometers)
Radius of Max Winds: 60 nautical miles (69 miles | 111 kilometers)
System Depth: Shallow

Posted this image http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/2557/vis222.jpg at Posted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:51 pm

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If it means anything the GFS is bringing Emily back starting at 30hr on the 18z.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif

My friend as much as I consider you a very good friend give it up. I am with you but it's just not going to happen.

[ozonepete]

JB still beating this dead horse?

JB hasn't tweeted since the NHC pulled the plug at 5. But he will be on FOX and Friends on Saturday morning trying to debunk global warming!

Somebody needs to.

Let's drop the politics please before it gets ugly.

[weatherSnoop]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

What is happening around 17N-72,9W?

[SapphireSea]

Looking at how slow the convective mass is moving, and the further removal of the center from the convection approaching convective minimums tonight, i'd say Emily has a nil chance of regeneration through Saturday as forecast by NHC. I'd probobly agree that it would be at the very least 60 hours before it can get going again if it even does so.

I should have stayed on my prediction early last night of dissipation; It was obvious that the storm had negligible circulation (even when it looked amazing) and all it took was some light shear and land interaction to completely obliterate her.

Now the convection over land will die down because of the loss of daytime heating and it will probably be enough to cripple development of any surface feature for a few days.

[ozonepete]

Looking at how slow the convective mass is moving, and the further removal of the center from the convection approaching convective minimums tonight, i'd say Emily has a nil chance of regeneration through Saturday as forecast by NHC. I'd probobly agree that it would be at the very least 60 hours before it can get going again if it even does so.

I should have stayed on my prediction early last night of dissipation; It was obvious that the storm had negligible circulation (even when it looked amazing) and all it took was some light shear and land interaction to completely obliterate her.

Now the convection over land will die down because of the loss of daytime heating and it will probably be enough to cripple development of any surface feature for a few days.

Yeah, but the big factor by far was the land interaction. We'll never know what would have happened if Emily stayed on a due west course, but if it had, I think it could have been pretty impressive at some point.

[underthwx]

Aside from interaction with the terrain what's the shear like in the region as far as inhibiting potential reformation?

[CourierPR]

Are the remnants splitting into two pieces, with one north of Hispaniola and one south?

[ozonepete]

Aside from interaction with the terrain what's the shear like in the region as far as inhibiting potential reformation?

The shear in the path of the remnant ciculation is actually very low. So shear should not be an inhibiting factor for regeneration. (purple arrow shows where Emily's circulation is headed.) Using the color key at right, you can see shear just ahead is 10 knots or less (blue colors) and decreasing (dashed lines indicate areas where shear is decreasing.)

[wxman57]

Remnants are being torn apart. Redevelopment chances quite slim.