ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261406
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 36 20110826
135630 3057N 07654W 7507 02257 9717 +156 //// 147098 100 076 011 01
135700 3056N 07656W 7527 02227 9708 +159 //// 147094 096 073 011 01
135730 3055N 07657W 7508 02240 9700 +156 //// 147095 096 074 014 01
135800 3053N 07659W 7517 02222 9686 +161 //// 147087 088 073 011 01
135830 3052N 07700W 7508 02221 9673 +162 //// 145084 084 072 008 01
135900 3051N 07702W 7526 02191 9662 +164 //// 141084 084 070 009 01
135930 3050N 07703W 7518 02189 9652 +162 //// 137082 083 066 010 01
140000 3048N 07705W 7515 02182 9637 +165 //// 133079 080 069 013 05
140030 3047N 07706W 7499 02186 9627 +159 //// 133079 080 066 016 01
140100 3046N 07708W 7491 02183 9603 +169 //// 137072 074 067 012 01
140130 3044N 07710W 7497 02161 9586 +172 //// 137076 078 065 007 01
140200 3043N 07711W 7499 02141 9562 +180 +176 137081 084 065 012 00
140230 3042N 07713W 7498 02123 9537 +185 +173 134085 087 064 014 00
140300 3040N 07715W 7504 02095 9512 +186 +184 132074 081 064 024 00
140330 3039N 07716W 7533 02045 9501 +181 //// 128058 062 067 032 01
140400 3037N 07718W 7527 02043 9491 +181 //// 122042 047 058 010 05
140430 3036N 07719W 7503 02063 9479 +185 +190 119032 035 035 004 03
140500 3034N 07721W 7507 02056 9470 +193 +185 124022 027 031 001 00
140530 3032N 07722W 7505 02057 9475 +185 +189 140010 014 030 001 00
140600 3031N 07724W 7512 02048 9473 +187 +188 079006 010 030 004 00


000
URNT15 KNHC 261429
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 33 20110826
141930 3042N 07551W 6967 03022 9911 +090 +040 173092 093 064 010 00
142000 3044N 07551W 6968 03022 9913 +089 +040 172094 095 063 009 00
142030 3047N 07551W 6967 03027 9917 +086 +040 171094 097 062 007 00
142100 3049N 07551W 6968 03025 9920 +085 +040 168093 093 062 007 00
142130 3052N 07551W 6968 03024 9922 +083 +040 168092 097 063 009 00
142200 3055N 07551W 6962 03034 9929 +081 +040 169094 096 062 011 00
142230 3057N 07551W 6966 03031 9921 +089 +039 169091 095 061 007 00
142300 3100N 07551W 6965 03032 9923 +086 +038 168094 098 062 009 00
142330 3102N 07551W 6971 03027 9940 +075 +038 162096 097 062 013 00
142400 3105N 07551W 6975 03021 9943 +073 +038 161098 102 062 012 00
142430 3107N 07551W 6971 03033 9946 +073 +037 157100 105 062 014 00
142500 3110N 07551W 6962 03044 9944 +078 +036 159100 102 060 012 00
142530 3112N 07551W 6970 03038 9950 +076 +036 154091 095 059 011 00
142600 3115N 07551W 6963 03049 9946 +081 +035 154090 091 060 008 00
142630 3117N 07551W 6969 03044 9937 +091 +035 152089 092 059 005 00
142700 3119N 07551W 6966 03050 9937 +093 +035 152091 092 058 005 00
142730 3122N 07551W 6967 03051 9941 +091 +035 152093 094 056 006 00
142800 3124N 07551W 6970 03051 9949 +090 +035 150095 096 057 005 00
142830 3127N 07551W 6969 03056 9952 +090 +036 148092 095 056 005 00
142900 3129N 07551W 6965 03064 9967 +081 +036 147091 093 054 007 00
$$
;

[orion]

Does the SLOSH model account for the angle of incidence and speed of motion? Irene is expected to rake most of the mid-Atlantic coast, and that means most coastal areas will only get the water blown in over an hour or two, as opposed to a big pile of water pushed forward for days as in Ike, Rita, Katrina, etc. I would expect the SLOSH model to significantly overstate surge for most of the coast at risk, excepting only the regions where Irene is going ashore at a more direct angle, which is currently predicted to be the Outer Banks and the southern coast of New England.

SLOSH does allow for the angle and speed of the storm... you choose from directions such as N, NNE, NE, etc. and speed by choosing 5mph, 15 mph, etc. Additionally, you select mean tide or high tide. You also choose the category of the storm (SS), but need to be careful here... in an earlier post one of the pro mets stated he would put in cat 4 or 5 because of the size of Irene, even though it may only be classified as a 2 or possibly 3 when it hits.

[Ivanhater]

The lack of a visible eye does mean that it's weakened, and while the NHC did say it might restrengthen, my own opinion is that it might not, since the waters are progessively cooler as it approaches the NC coast...

From what I read the SFMR is showing winds far less than 110 mph, so that's also a good sign - hopefully it'll stay that way...

The truth is that Irene has never itensified to anything more than a Category 3 - like rope tornadoes versus stovepipe tornadoes, some tropical cyclones just never get to that extreme level, for a variety of reasons - it seems Irene thankfully is of that variety...

Frank

Frank, I hope people are listening to the Pro's...it is not the strength that is the biggest threat. This storm is carrying with it a massive surge that is headed for the big cities on the east coast. I hope people are getting out of the way.

[Portastorm]

The lack of a visible eye does mean that it's weakened, and while the NHC did say it might restrengthen, my own opinion is that it might not, since the waters are progessively cooler as it approaches the NC coast...

From what I read the SFMR is showing winds far less than 110 mph, so that's also a good sign - hopefully it'll stay that way...

The truth is that Irene has never itensified to anything more than a Category 3 - like rope tornadoes versus stovepipe tornadoes, some tropical cyclones just never get to that extreme level, for a variety of reasons - it seems Irene thankfully is of that variety...

Frank

True Frank but make no mistake ... this hurricane is still dangerous and will be dangerous. It will be an "extreme" weather event for millions of people who haven't experienced anything remotely close to it.

[CrazyC83]

If I was your beloved sister, living here in Norfolk, Virginia, would you suggest I stay here or flee to some cheap hotel?

I live several miles from the ocean and waterways, but I'm on a finger of Lake Whitehurst (which is just a storm-water retention pond). It's never flooded beyond a foot or two in height, which keeps it far, far away from the houses.

My house is a 1950s brick ranch - low to the ground and very solid.

But that wind...

Your thoughts?

Sister Rose

Evacuate inland I would.

[Frank2]

Frank, I hope people are listening to the Pro's...it is not the strength that is the biggest threat. This storm is carrying with it a massive surge that is headed for the big cities on the east coast. I hope people are getting out of the way.

Yes, I understand and you are right about the Storm Surge, though as said last night on CNN or TWC for it to track to the east or west of NYC will make a BIG difference as to what will happen along the NJ coast and NYC...

The good news is that if indeed it is weakening slowly then hopefully that weakening, along with it's fairly slow to average forward motion, will allow at least some of the surge to dissipate - the 1938 hurricane, on the other hand, was moving at an incredible 60 mph and was the main reason for the damage and fatalities due to surge...

Frank

[WilmingtonSandbar]

First rainband is just pulling through now. I am currently in Boiling Spring Lakes, about 30 miles south of Wilmington. Rain is heavy but no significant wind yet.

[Stormcenter]

Good post Frank2.

I also have doubts that Irene will restrengthen to anything more then what it has been. IMO

The lack of a visible eye does mean that it's weakened, and while the NHC did say it might restrengthen, my own opinion is that it might not, since the waters are progessively cooler as it approaches the NC coast...

From what I read the SFMR is showing winds far less than 110 mph, so that's also a good sign - hopefully it'll stay that way...

The truth is that Irene has never itensified to anything more than a Category 3 - like rope tornadoes versus stovepipe tornadoes, some tropical cyclones just never get to that extreme level, for a variety of reasons - it seems Irene thankfully is of that variety...

Frank

[Nikki]

If I was your beloved sister, living here in Norfolk, Virginia, would you suggest I stay here or flee to some cheap hotel?

I live several miles from the ocean and waterways, but I'm on a finger of Lake Whitehurst (which is just a storm-water retention pond). It's never flooded beyond a foot or two in height, which keeps it far, far away from the houses.

My house is a 1950s brick ranch - low to the ground and very solid.

But that wind...

Your thoughts?

Sister Rose

If I were you, I would move inland.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

What's the outlook for Wilmington NC this morning? Kids are still debating evacuation. Our house is about 6 miles from the beach.

Run from the surge, hide from the wind. I don't know the geography - but 6 miles inland won't usually get surge right? So is the house equipped to withstand the expected max winds? Any local geography that could cause flooding? Any problems with the structure? Is it filled block or concrete shell? (Thats probably what you need to survive a major dead-on, but still the roof can come off) - so is the roof strapped? Are there multiple routes out of the area after the hit?

I'm 9 miles from the beach but would move from my apt to my moms house a bit further east, there are no trees around, she has a landline phone, filled block vs concrete, and a newly built strapped roof, etc. I'm sorry I didn't grab all of your posts, but do your kids live on the beach?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

just in case you wanted a live local radar. There are also live cam links in the map. http://www.wect.com/category/219458/inf ... storm-cone

[seahawkjd]

So looking at that high pressure to the east of the storm is it possibly now going to stay on a north course instead of turning before it hits the cost? Or at least turning later then expected? We're down to the point for NC that small shifts, wobbles, etc. make a difference.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261416
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 37 20110826
140630 3030N 07726W 7512 02049 9476 +185 +186 033014 017 026 002 00
140700 3028N 07727W 7508 02057 9477 +189 +183 014018 019 028 001 00
140730 3027N 07729W 7512 02060 9479 +197 +180 348027 033 037 002 00
140800 3025N 07731W 7510 02073 9489 +200 +176 337049 055 046 001 00
140830 3023N 07733W 7509 02091 9498 +214 +170 328058 059 047 002 00
140900 3022N 07735W 7508 02113 9499 +242 +155 324064 066 049 002 00
140930 3020N 07736W 7505 02134 9527 +229 +156 324064 066 048 002 00
141000 3019N 07738W 7512 02140 9554 +214 +160 323066 067 046 002 00
141030 3017N 07740W 7508 02161 9578 +204 +155 322067 068 047 001 00
141100 3016N 07741W 7511 02170 9596 +199 +152 321068 068 046 002 00
141130 3014N 07743W 7512 02180 9614 +192 +156 322066 066 049 003 00
141200 3013N 07745W 7511 02192 9630 +184 +160 322065 066 049 002 00
141230 3011N 07746W 7509 02207 9655 +170 +164 318061 062 050 002 00
141300 3010N 07748W 7511 02217 9672 +166 +163 313060 061 052 001 00
141330 3009N 07750W 7508 02229 9671 +179 +155 310067 069 055 002 00
141400 3007N 07751W 7513 02233 9677 +184 +150 311071 073 058 003 00
141430 3006N 07753W 7514 02242 9699 +170 +157 308068 070 060 003 00
141500 3004N 07755W 7507 02258 9712 +168 +157 306071 072 059 003 00
141530 3003N 07756W 7512 02265 9728 +163 +162 306069 070 060 003 00
141600 3002N 07758W 7512 02272 9735 +163 +156 309072 073 060 000 00


000
URNT15 KNHC 261439
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 34 20110826
142930 3131N 07551W 6966 03066 9974 +077 +036 146089 089 053 009 00
143000 3134N 07551W 6970 03065 9976 +079 +035 147089 090 052 007 00
143030 3136N 07551W 6966 03073 9968 +089 +035 148087 088 052 007 00
143100 3138N 07551W 6971 03068 9965 +094 +035 147085 085 050 005 00
143130 3141N 07551W 6970 03073 9967 +094 +035 146086 086 050 005 00
143200 3143N 07551W 6966 03082 9974 +091 +035 145084 085 050 004 00
143230 3145N 07551W 6969 03082 9979 +090 +035 145083 083 049 004 00
143300 3148N 07551W 6967 03085 9983 +088 +035 146081 082 045 007 00
143330 3150N 07551W 6961 03091 9973 +098 +035 145080 081 046 005 00
143400 3152N 07551W 6963 03090 9995 +081 +035 146080 084 045 005 00
143430 3155N 07551W 6971 03082 0022 +061 +034 144084 086 044 010 00
143500 3157N 07551W 6969 03088 0002 +079 +034 140083 084 045 008 00
143530 3159N 07551W 6968 03091 0000 +082 +033 137082 085 044 007 00
143600 3201N 07551W 6968 03095 0001 +084 +033 138081 083 043 005 03
143630 3203N 07552W 6966 03096 9998 +086 +033 138078 079 /// /// 03
143700 3203N 07554W 6966 03093 9991 +089 +033 139075 076 044 006 03
143730 3201N 07556W 6969 03085 9994 +084 +033 141076 078 043 008 00
143800 3200N 07557W 6970 03079 9983 +088 +032 136076 077 044 007 00
143830 3159N 07558W 6977 03072 0003 +071 +033 133079 081 045 010 00
143900 3158N 07600W 6961 03087 9985 +082 +032 136074 077 046 010 00
$$
;

[Portastorm]

Good post Frank2.

I also have doubts that Irene will restrengthen to anything more then what it has been. IMO

The lack of a visible eye does mean that it's weakened, and while the NHC did say it might restrengthen, my own opinion is that it might not, since the waters are progessively cooler as it approaches the NC coast...

From what I read the SFMR is showing winds far less than 110 mph, so that's also a good sign - hopefully it'll stay that way...

The truth is that Irene has never itensified to anything more than a Category 3 - like rope tornadoes versus stovepipe tornadoes, some tropical cyclones just never get to that extreme level, for a variety of reasons - it seems Irene thankfully is of that variety...

Frank

Yep ... and what it "has been" and continues to be is a dangerous, life threatening hurricane.

[poof121]

Good page to monitor for storm surge. A bunch of different tide stations all along the coast. I expect they'll update it as Irene moves northward.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/IRENE.html

[Javlin]

What's the outlook for Wilmington NC this morning? Kids are still debating evacuation. Our house is about 6 miles from the beach.

Run from the surge, hide from the wind. I don't know the geography - but 6 miles inland won't usually get surge right? So is the house equipped to withstand the expected max winds? Any local geography that could cause flooding? Any problems with the structure? Is it filled block or concrete shell? (Thats probably what you need to survive a major dead-on, but still the roof can come off) - so is the roof strapped? Are there multiple routes out of the area after the hit?

I'm 9 miles from the beach but would move from my apt to my moms house a bit further east, there are no trees around, she has a landline phone, filled block vs concrete, and a newly built strapped roof, etc. I'm sorry I didn't grab all of your posts, but do your kids live on the beach?

Would depend on the geography.Along the ms coast after Katrina in the Pass area all the way to I-10 only a few feet below the overpass cars stacked like by boys toy box inderneath.

[SENClander]

Just heard a guy on TV up north say he likes to see the waves. He was going to the beach to watch the waves. PEOPLE. Though the wind and flooding rains are not to be taken likely IT IS THE STORM SURGE that kills. People who have never been through a hurricane does not realize how quickly the water will rise when the surge comes in. You will not be able to out run it.

[Ivanhater]

Let me reiterate what Wxman57 is saying about the danger of this Hurricane, there is nothing to be thankful or feel lucky about

That's pretty much it, and it's the size of those wind fields that determines the storm surge height, NOT the Saffir-Simpson category. Using the SLOSH model to create surge graphics, I'd have to bump the storm category up to a SS Cat 4 to illustrate the surge height from a very large Category 2 hurricane, as the SLOSH model does not take into consideration storm size very well. It assumes an average sized hurricane with a radius of max winds of only 25nm.

Currently, Irene is most closely similar to 2008's Hurricane Ike in size and intensity. Irene may be a little larger and stronger than Ike when it strikes the Carolinas then tracks northward along the coast. I don't think anyone in its path is "lucky".

[Hogweed]

Dropsonde NE eyewall 13:19Z

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
963mb (28.44 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 120° (from the ESE) 89 knots (102 mph)
1000mb -334m (-1096 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 355m (1,165 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 125° (from the SE) 96 knots (110 mph)
850mb 1,096m (3,596 ft) 21.2°C (70.2°F) 20.6°C (69.1°F) 140° (from the SE) 95 knots (109 mph)

[ROCK]

Good post Frank2.

I also have doubts that Irene will restrengthen to anything more then what it has been. IMO

The lack of a visible eye does mean that it's weakened, and while the NHC did say it might restrengthen, my own opinion is that it might not, since the waters are progessively cooler as it approaches the NC coast...

From what I read the SFMR is showing winds far less than 110 mph, so that's also a good sign - hopefully it'll stay that way...

The truth is that Irene has never itensified to anything more than a Category 3 - like rope tornadoes versus stovepipe tornadoes, some tropical cyclones just never get to that extreme level, for a variety of reasons - it seems Irene thankfully is of that variety...

Frank

I beg to differ on cooler waters as she approaches the coast. That is not correct.

the other side of NC maybe but she will be moving fast enough by then....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL