ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ronjon]

Yeah GCane, SSD located an 1011 mb low pressure near 22N-77.1W at 8 am. Currently devoid of convection but you can see the CC turning. Hit the fronts box on the SAT view.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[stormreader]

Nothing like a blob watch to make a Friday at work go by faster....

What a different thread this would be if the blob was brand new and there was a 60% on it. This place would be going Ape..

So true. Everyone has relaxed, and yet the NHC has a 60% chance of development just off the SE Coast! And as has been posted convection is really blossoming there just north of E Cuba.

[CrazyC83]

This is being treated the same as an active Invest now, just with a real designation (05L).

[ConvergenceZone]

Nothing like a blob watch to make a Friday at work go by faster....

What a different thread this would be if the blob was brand new and there was a 60% on it. This place would be going Ape..

So true. Everyone has relaxed, and yet the NHC has a 60% chance of development just off the SE Coast! And as has been posted convection is really blossoming there just north of E Cuba.

Well, no one is really interested because even if it does develop into a depression, it's not as if it will amount to
anything, and then pretty soon it would be making the turn anyway, so of course everyone is relaxed ....

[cpdaman]

Yeah GCane, SSD located an 1011 mb low pressure near 22N-77.1W at 8 am. Currently devoid of convection but you can see the CC turning. Hit the fronts box on the SAT view.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

well aric mentioned this area earlier and how it's movement was WNW primarily which would take it skirting the N cuba coast which runs WNW....but it looks like its opening up or weakening a tad

I wonder if something else isn't close to forming further E near edge of deeper convection

i'm looking near 22.2 76.2

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[ronjon]

It's intersting if the system developed from the current low near 77W. Both the dynamic hurricane models, GFDL and HWRF, redevelop Emily near either 22n-74W (GFDL) or 22n-75W (HWRF). Both models move Emily a maximum of 4-5 degrees west in longitude from the point forward until they starting moving the system north at about 28N. Just extrapolating that same longitude swing would put the low on the FL peninsula if it develops now at 77W. Of course the heavy convection is forming further east, so the low may jump east under that anyway.

[Gustywind]

For those who are interrested, here is a loop (given by Meteo-France) of Emily when she was crossing Hispaniola and Haiti.
http://www.meteo.gp/alaune/alaune_auto/ ... mily_2.gif

[jlauderdal]

Nothing like a blob watch to make a Friday at work go by faster....

What a different thread this would be if the blob was brand new and there was a 60% on it. This place would be going Ape..

i was thinking that last night but i have decided it would be a small ape because only people east of 82 really care about it

[gatorcane]

They have the bulls-eye at ~22.4N 77.0W

Yes that is where I see it also:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If you click this link, then click on FRONTS tab, you will see a 1011MB low there.

Maybe it can swing some of that convection around and into South Florida to help us with the drought that is still ongoing.

I am still going with a 60% chance of reformation. Reasons:

High SSTs,
Low Shear
Low SAL/dry air
Some model support
Convection building

[mf_dolphin]

Shouldn't this still be on the Storm2K map? It's the equivalent of an invest, since it's being outlooked and the tropical models are still running for it.

my understanding is the map is automatically updated by NHC data, in other words s2k doesn't really do it themselves.

You're right Artist. We us a program from HamWeather that takes the feeds from the NHC and NWS and updates all the graphics. Since the NHC wrote the last advisory on Emily, there's no active storm. If they re-open an invest on the remnants then the map will update shortly after.

[SouthDadeFish]

It may just be me but it looks like she's beginning to rotate more in the last few frames:



Also shear is dropping ahead of her, which may allow her to try and wrap something up. (I still doubt it)

[Vortex]

Something to certainly watch as the day progresses...Looks broad but better defined on the vis....

[cpdaman]

They have the bulls-eye at ~22.4N 77.0W

Yes that is where I see it also:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If you click this link, then click on FRONTS tab, you will see a 1011MB low there.

Maybe it can swing some of that convection around and into South Florida to help us with the drought that is still ongoing.

I am still going with a 60% chance of reformation. Reasons:

High SSTs,
Low Shear
Low SAL/dry air
Some model support
Convection building

gator when you look at the visible ....do you see signs (that i do) that it looks like the LLC may want to get going a bit E of there...like 22.2 76.2 or is that sillyness


like the old LLC looks more broad and seems to be centering a bit to the east b4 a potential tightening
?

[clfenwi]

Flight scheduled for Saturday, if needed.

NOUS42 KNHC 051415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 05 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNATS OF STORM EMILY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 1405A INVEST
C. 06/1500Z
D. 25.5N 78.0W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
07/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM EMILY
WAS CANCELED AT 04/2000Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
05/1800Z MISSION WHICH WAS CANCELED AT 05/1100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Nimbus]

North coast of Cuba south of Andros island. We can watch as the convection pulls back west over the remnant vortex to get some idea about the pressure gradient profile. Should be flat as a pie tin but you never know..

[plasticup]

That trough is sucking harder than I thought. These remnants are about to get pulled up in a hurry

[Vortex]

North coast of Cuba south of Andros island. We can watch as the convection pulls back west over the remnant vortex to get some idea about the pressure gradient profile. Should be flat as a pie tin but you never know..

Exactly, thats where the LLC looks to take shape....

[plasticup]

It may just be me but it looks like she's beginning to rotate more in the last few frames:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Yeah, I see that too. There is definitely some rotation returning after the Hispaniola battering, but does it extend to the surface? I suppose this is exactly why the NHC says regeneration is possible.

[Vortex]

Inverted trough best I can tell...Obs on east side of cuba S windsand to the N of the devloping LLC ENE winds...Something to watch closely as the afternoon progresses..

[NDG]

I am starting to see some low clouds coming from a SSW direction eastern Cuba now, looks a broad surface low is starting to get going.