ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[fox13weather]

I wonder if daytime heating over Cuba will help moisten the environment. Looks like its already starting to cancel out the sea breeze over Cuba after looking at hi-res visible loops.

huh?

[GCANE]

I wonder if daytime heating over Cuba will help moisten the environment. Looks like its already starting to cancel out the sea breeze over Cuba after looking at hi-res visible loops.

I was just thinking the same. Should uncorked some good pop-up thunderstorms.

[mutley]

Looks like Emily is trying.

[AJC3]

Due to the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, not over water.

You sure about that NDG? I think the center was still south of Hispaniola, and if that is correct you wouldn't have expected the storm to dissipate so quickly without the center being onshore. Actually, I think the mountains might only have had an indirect effect by impeding some of the inflow. But all in all it looks like this thing just dissipated mostly of its own accord. A day or so earlier their was a time when it looked as though it were about to go open wave and this was well before Hispaniola. Reminded of a storm named Chris that dissipated (seems like in the same general) area in 2006.

I'm with NDG. It was all about the mountains.

Ditto.

Analogy: You have a helicopter parked next to a large 50 foot tall concrete slab. The copter is not parked on the slab, but 10 feet away, but it has 30 foot long rotors. Start it up, see what happens.

OK, so it's not an exact analogy, as air is a fluid, but think about the kind up disruption high peaks are going to have on both the circulation of a TC, as well as it's inflow/convergence. Think "Debby" from 2000, or even Jeanne from 2004 as examples that the COC doesn't have to go smack over the center of Hispanola for the system to get severely disrupted. Moreover, Emily was always a sheared TC, and was never truly vertically coherent to begin with, compared to either of these two TCs.

[cpdaman]

AJC3 any thoughts regarding regeneration potential/ developments

with low near 22/76 as it distances away from mountains it's developing rotors (from heli analogy) should be able to gain steam ....no

we have a LLC developing or consolidating in a area of good TCHP .....conditons are improving aloft and it doesn't appear to be in a hurry to move anywhere....seems like it "bears watching"

[Vortex]

Looks like Emily is trying.

There she is....i think tonight is her night!

[Vortex]

Some squally weather certainly seems a good bet for SE FL on Saturday and peaking Saturday night....

[jlauderdal]

well Avila kept it at 60%.

Stewart will go 80 just to mess with avila

[cpdaman]

i would go 70-80 percent now

but many pro's that i look at one other sites besides echoing that sentiment (or me echoing there's lol) say the track is pretty much clear....

drift WNW NW over next 24 hours and slowly re-organize....then 36 hours out there is a nice window for strengthening perhaps somewhat robustly as it is clearly pulled AWAY from E coastal FL NW bahamas and move out to sea as a likely strengthening cyclone

[gatorcane]

First of all, there isn't any low center north of Cuba. There is some lower-level rotation evident but no evidence of a closed low center. Pressures are a bit high in the area north of Cuba now. Conditions aloft are not ideal for redevelopment. Shear is still present and the shear won't likely diminish much in the next 24 hours as the disturbance passes east of Florida. And the reason it's forecast to turn off to the north and northeast is the projected steering pattern, governed by the placement of the high pressure area east of the disturbance and the trof along the East U.S. Coast. Here's a graphic illustrating the steering flow for tomorrow night. Even if it was to redevelop by tomorrow night, it would be on its way out to sea shortly thereafter. Regardless of what happens, you'll be lucky to see much rain out of it across the FL peninsula when it passes to the east tomorrow.

I agree with your steering currents but I do see favorable conditions ahead and think there is a high chance of reformation, probably in about 24-48 hours from now, 60% chance

[crimi481]

Yes - mentioned that earlier - we should see thin feeder type bands lighting up over Fl -later today

[artist]

well Avila kept it at 60%.

Stewart will go 80 just to mess with avila

yeah, you're probably right!~ I just want to keep my eye on it as there wouldn't be much notice if indeed she decides to spin up into something.

[Aric Dunn]

And there we go. looks like she is making a come back with a LLC trying to develop SW of andros islands.

[Shuriken]

If the eddy north of Cuba/southwest of Bahamas fires up, It should have a different name as there is no connection between it and any discernible remnants of Emily.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N76W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CUBA ON THE BAHAMAS SIDE. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE
REMNANT OF EMILY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
ACROSS CUBA TO CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN...AND THEN TO
15N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N71W...IN THE
BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 19N TO 20N
ALONG 76W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH 15 MPH.

[Vortex]

And there we go. looks like she is making a come back with a LLC trying to develop SW of andros islands.

I agree, MIA starting to pick up on it nicely....

[Shuriken]

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N76W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CUBA ON THE BAHAMAS SIDE. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE
REMNANT OF EMILY.

<groan> No, it's not. Associated with the same wave?--Yes. The same remnant spin?--No.

(Do they do it this way because it's less work?)

[artist]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
Cuban radar site

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 05, 2011080518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 780W, 30, 1011, WV

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[wxman57]

Surface obs don't indicate anything near 22N/76W, just SE flow and 1014-1015MB pressure there. Obs do indicate a trof axis along about 78.3W with a weak lower-level rotation near 23N. In 24 hours this will already be past SE Florida, turning north, then heading NE and out to sea. No significant threat to Florida. Possibly a few daytime thunderstorms tomorrow as it passes. I don't see any sign of it becoming better organized at present. Shear is still there.