ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hogweed]

dang, it is WAY west of the official track then!

To clarify the textual coords were correct but the image was old.

[killah]

Man, NYC is going to be hammered, I have friends all on the Eastern seaboard, I hope they are ready for this because no one is evacuating.

[deltadog03]

Im sorry....but, until this changes its not gonna start moving NNE (not saying its going west or anything like that, but a NNW to N movement should continue)...Morehead City looks like the place to be for landfall....IMO....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=


sorry that is the steering map...**Current**

is that a tad east of the NC/SC border?

Moorhead City is in Carteret County - about 3/4 of the way from Wilmington to the Outer Banks

Thanks...YA, Wilmington is the first big city once you get into NC (from SC)

[Ellsey]

why not use the old terrorism warning system and highlight certain areas as different levels of danger as far as surge, wind and rain as the hurricanes get closer to landfall or impact

That's kind of what TWC has been doing. Although they haven't separated out surge, wind, etc., they have labled the threat level to placed from like mild to extreme. It's actually I think a pretty good way of doing it.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 261734
97779 17334 60307 79009 30500 34061 08049 /3985
RMK AF306 2709A IRENE OB 26
SWS = 58 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

AF 306 - MISSION OVER...Thanks Macrocane & all who helped on this mission! See recon discussion for next flight:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111543&start=200

[Jevo]

12z GFDL Initialized



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

12z GFDL +12



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261739
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 52 20110826
172930 3043N 07851W 6954 03016 9864 +106 +061 360069 073 067 006 00
173000 3041N 07853W 6976 02991 9897 +082 +059 360084 087 066 009 03
173030 3040N 07854W 6965 03001 9905 +075 +056 355086 087 062 015 03
173100 3041N 07856W 6964 03010 9912 +073 +053 350085 087 060 016 00
173130 3041N 07856W 6964 03010 9915 +074 +050 342078 082 058 010 00
173200 3042N 07858W 6970 03011 9911 +081 +048 339070 074 058 010 00
173230 3042N 07900W 6963 03023 9918 +079 +046 336064 065 059 010 00
173300 3043N 07901W 6969 03018 9926 +075 +045 337061 062 059 010 00
173330 3043N 07903W 6970 03020 9919 +084 +043 335062 062 059 010 00
173400 3044N 07905W 6883 03119 9920 +075 +040 334060 060 057 009 00
173430 3044N 07906W 6689 03361 9917 +065 +036 335058 059 056 008 03
173500 3044N 07908W 6410 03717 9905 +055 +030 333060 062 057 006 00
173530 3044N 07910W 6116 04106 9894 +042 +024 333061 061 056 003 00
173600 3044N 07912W 5879 04428 9886 +027 +019 335055 058 056 001 00
173630 3044N 07914W 5696 04691 9884 +014 //// 343053 054 056 000 01
173700 3044N 07917W 5514 04957 9884 -000 //// 348050 050 057 001 01
173730 3044N 07919W 5340 05219 0134 -005 //// 356052 053 057 003 01
173800 3044N 07921W 5194 05446 0153 -007 //// 003051 051 056 001 01
173830 3044N 07923W 5049 05666 0171 -015 //// 003050 050 056 005 01
173900 3044N 07926W 4893 05918 0190 -027 //// 360048 050 056 004 01
$$
;

[Aja]

Question: Is Weather Channel correct with South Carolina expecting 22 ft of storm surge? If so, Why is the west side of this storm expecting more than the east?

I am a journalist, not a meteorologist.

[Tstormwatcher]

Question: Is Weather Channel correct with South Carolina expecting 22 ft of storm surge?

When did you hear that?

[tolakram]

Live Water Vapor loop, zoom 4.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[L1GSXR750]

Question: Is Weather Channel correct with South Carolina expecting 22 ft of storm surge?

I think its 22ft waves.

[krisj]

Question: Is Weather Channel correct with South Carolina expecting 22 ft of storm surge?

That would have to be my the NC/SC border, right? Not Charleston. We had one windy band here this morning and not much since.

[Aja]

Question: Is Weather Channel correct with South Carolina expecting 22 ft of storm surge?

When did you hear that?

Just now on the weather channel.

[Aja]

Question: Is Weather Channel correct with South Carolina expecting 22 ft of storm surge?

That would have to be my the NC/SC border, right? Not Charleston. We had one windy band here this morning and not much since.

Nope! They said Edisto Beach

[micktooth]

NYC Mayor Bloomberg just ordered a "Mandatory Evacuation" of all low lying areas of NYC, I'm glad they are taking this storm seriously.

[ConvergenceZone]

down to 100 MPH now, weakening trend continues.

They also say that they expect little change in strength prior to landfall, but I'm not too sure I buy into that fact that it won't weaken more before landfall.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE WEAKENS A LITTLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARRIVING ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A
COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT FOLLY ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURE BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

NNNN

[tolakram]

Shear analysis from a little earlier today:


from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Latest shear tendency map. Notice how shear near Irene is analyzed as less than this morning.


from: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[psyclone]

I don't understand. Pressure falls, storm looks like a$$.
Pressure rises, storm looks like Tip.

well here's an analogy that may demonstrate and perhaps a pro can chime and validate this or tell me i'm nuts. As we all know Irene is a big storm, a massive atmospheric pit. as such she is slower to react to factors which should alter her intensity. i think of hydrology here. a small stream is immediately reactive to a heavy rain event whereas a big river is slow to react (think of the lower mississippi this spring which crested weeks after the heavy rain event). as far as hurricanes go irene would be the slow reacting big river and is taking longer to react to changes which we would ordinarily expect to impact the hurricane quicker.

[krisj]

Question: Is Weather Channel correct with South Carolina expecting 22 ft of storm surge?

That would have to be my the NC/SC border, right? Not Charleston. We had one windy band here this morning and not much since.

Nope! They said Edisto Beach

I saw pics people posted at IOP and the waves were huge. Edisto seems so far south. Wow...