ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[maryellen40]

wow because the media hyped this one up, when one comes that does not weaken, people will not take it seriously.

[Hogweed]

down to 100 MPH now, weakening trend continues.

Its Destructive storm surge/wave rating has not decreased. Still at 5.1 (on a scale of 0-6) per latest http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't understand. Pressure falls, storm looks like a$$.
Pressure rises, storm looks like Tip.

well here's an analogy that may demonstrate and perhaps a pro can chime and validate this or tell me i'm nuts. As we all know Irene is a big storm, a massive atmospheric pit. as such she is slower to react to factors which should alter her intensity. i think of hydrology here. a small stream is immediately reactive to a heavy rain event whereas a big river is slow to react (think of the lower mississippi this spring which crested weeks after the heavy rain event). as far as hurricanes go irene would be the slow reacting big river and is taking longer to react to changes which we would ordinarily expect to impact the hurricane quicker.

Well, one thing I learned last night is that winds don't always follow pressure drops. Remember last night when the pressure dropped and many were saying that the winds would follow? I think that has been disproven... It doesn't always happen that way...

[Stormcenter]

Looks like Irene make have taken a vitamin pill. New convection
building around the center.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[Tstormwatcher]

Question: Is Weather Channel correct with South Carolina expecting 22 ft of storm surge?

When did you hear that?

Just now on the weather channel.

NHC is only predicting a 3 to 6 foot surge along the SC coast. Not sure where TWC got their info.

[micktooth]

wow because the media hyped this one up, when one comes that does not weaken, people will not take it seriously.

This is not hyped up, people still need to take this storm very seriously. Wind speed is not the only indicator of potential damage.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HugoCameandLeft]

Question: Is Weather Channel correct with South Carolina expecting 22 ft of storm surge? If so, Why is the west side of this storm expecting more than the east?

I am a journalist, not a meteorologist.

If I recall correctly, Hugo's maximum surge in Awendaw was 22 feet. I find it hard to believe we could have anything close to that as far away as we are, and given the strength.

[JTD]

Is the NHC using 70% or 80% of flight level winds when determining surface winds?

[seahawkjd]

What is the conversion rate of flight level winds to the surface? Latest vdm found 105 kt (120 mph) winds as the peak in the southeast quadrant.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide View, with 11AM EDT and 5AM EDT tracks.

[SouthernBreeze]

Question: Is Weather Channel correct with South Carolina expecting 22 ft of storm surge?

That would have to be my the NC/SC border, right? Not Charleston. We had one windy band here this morning and not much since.

Nope! They said Edisto Beach

I just got home from boarding up windows on a little house I have on the waterway under a bunch of huge oaks, and a friend of mine in New Bern left me a voice mail msg that he heard the news that Myrtle Bch was having 20 ft waves too -- I don't think that's right - trying to get a hold of him now....

[Raebie]

Uh, anyone else concerned about that recent westerly movement?

[Portastorm]

What is the conversion rate of flight level winds to the surface? Latest vdm found 105 kt (120 mph) winds as the peak in the southeast quadrant.

I have always heard to multiply the flight level wind by 90% (.9) ... then multiply that figure by 1.15 to convert it from knots to mph.

So in this case ... 108 mph?

[webke]

Uh, anyone else concerned about that recent westerly movement?

Yes

[deltadog03]

Uh, anyone else concerned about that recent westerly movement?

A NNW movement yes.....She is gonna have to turn soon...but, I don't see it right now

[ozonepete]

Question: Is Weather Channel correct with South Carolina expecting 22 ft of storm surge? If so, Why is the west side of this storm expecting more than the east?

I am a journalist, not a meteorologist.

If I recall correctly, Hugo's maximum surge in Awendaw was 22 feet. I find it hard to believe we could have anything close to that as far away as we are, and given the strength.

Aja, I'm pretty sure they said 22ft waves, as someone else just said here. There is no way S.C. is getting a 22 foot surge.

[Aja]

wow because the media hyped this one up, when one comes that does not weaken, people will not take it seriously.

Trust me when I say, "This storm is going to teach a lesson that will have all listening to the next one!" Just because she has weakened, make no mistake, she is going to be just as horrific as her predecessors and hopefully not on a scale of Katrina flooding.
Media hyped this storm prematurely in SC too far in advance. Over a week ago media used this in SC to create panic that now has many I know on up the East Coast ignoring media where the attention needs to take seriously. That is the danger of crying wolf too soon!

I am a journalist, not a meteorologist.

[psyclone]

I don't understand. Pressure falls, storm looks like a$$.
Pressure rises, storm looks like Tip.

well here's an analogy that may demonstrate and perhaps a pro can chime and validate this or tell me i'm nuts. As we all know Irene is a big storm, a massive atmospheric pit. as such she is slower to react to factors which should alter her intensity. i think of hydrology here. a small stream is immediately reactive to a heavy rain event whereas a big river is slow to react (think of the lower mississippi this spring which crested weeks after the heavy rain event). as far as hurricanes go irene would be the slow reacting big river and is taking longer to react to changes which we would ordinarily expect to impact the hurricane quicker.

Well, one thing I learned last night is that winds don't always follow pressure drops. Remember last night when the pressure dropped and many were saying that the winds would follow? I think that has been disproven... It doesn't always happen that way...

if anything that validates the illustration. there's no way a medium or small hurricane wouldn't have reacted to that sort of pressure drop. but Irene is so big that pressure drop wasn't big or sustained enough to generate a response

[Jevo]

12Z GFDL +24



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12z GFDL +36



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[psyclone]

Seems like NYC dodged a big bullet. Good thing too.

that might be a tad premature.