ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Recent Microwave:



from: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[Jevo]

NWS Wilmington Radar Loop.. should be seeing a cetner soon

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[tolakram]

I just don't see it hitting the outer banks dead on, as opposed to hitting more westerly over land. Midn you, the outer banks are gonna get messed up no matter WHERE this hits, but it just really, really looks to me like it's going to be quite hard for this to miss going over a lot of land. This is my UNprofessional opinion as well.

Going to have to almost go true NE for it to hit where the NHC track is

Based on the image I just posted a N/NE track will hit the OB, true NE would take it well out to sea.

[windnrain]

It would have to start going NNE soon. The way I see it, its much closer to true north right now, even possibly a little NNNNW. lol.

[hurricaneCW]

I wonder what kind of influences the higher latitudes will play on Irene, models continue to deepen the storm (pressure wise) even as it gets north of the Carolinas.

[seahawkjd]

I'm wondering if this change will affect things further inland into NC. Right now we have a wind advisory. If it comes in west of forecast I wonder if the triangle could see tropical force winds.

** Disclaimer**

I have no idea what I'm talking about. Trust my predictions no more then you would someone yelling on the side of the road that the world is coming to an end. Unless you believe people like that in which case you should still consult meteorological professionals among others.

[kamqercam]

This is a hotel in Wilmington, NC:

[CronkPSU]

I just don't see it hitting the outer banks dead on, as opposed to hitting more westerly over land. Midn you, the outer banks are gonna get messed up no matter WHERE this hits, but it just really, really looks to me like it's going to be quite hard for this to miss going over a lot of land. This is my UNprofessional opinion as well.

Going to have to almost go true NE for it to hit where the NHC track is

Based on the image I just posted a N/NE track will hit the OB, true NE would take it well out to sea.

my bad, you're right...should have paid more attention in Orienteering class...still haven't seen many NNE movements from it though

[psyclone]

It's worth keeping in mind that even strong ts or category one hurricane winds within a thunderstorm would result in a strongly worded severe t storm warning from the nws. those type of winds are likely over a large area. now, those winds won't blow your house down (if it's well constructed) but they have the potential to fell millions of trees and leave tens of million without power, possibly for an extended period of time. i strongly encourage folks even well inland in the path of potentially high winds to prepare for the possibility of an extended power outage. indeed, i suspect that beyond the coastal water action, tree damage and associated power outages could well be a big legacy of Irene.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Have a look at the IR loop from this morning until now.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

As the shear relaxes you can see the convection starting to reorganize. Also note what appears to be a healthy east wobble of the center.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ptarmigan]

Anyone in the cone needs to prepare period. Do NOT focus on the center path! Irene is a very large storm and it will be a nasty one for anyone under Irene.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic=After Irene is out of the picture,we may see tropical development as soon as next week in the Eastern Atlantic as "all" the global models agree. See the scenario at "Global Model Runs Discussion" thread at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&p=2178021#p2178021

[SunnyThoughts]

Zarniwoop, thanks for that post. I rode out Hurricane Erin in 1995 here in the panhandle, which came ashore with right around 100mph winds. Its was my first to ride out...and my last. ( My father always moved us growing up, he had a bad experience on a ship once in a hurricane in the 40s, he never wanted to be in the middle of another one after that) To look outside your window and see pine trees doubling over and snapping like twigs is a horrible memory for me. I was scared to death. And it seemed to last for hours and hours. When all was said and done...we had over 40 trees down on our property, across the roads, and the underbrush (twigs, leafs limbs..etc) were knee high as far as the eye could see. ( we hadn't had a hard blow for many years before that) We were without power for 10 days...in the heat. (All this was without the storm surge the NE is expecting with this storm)

I write this too, to try and persuade anyone who has never been in a hurricane(even a minimal one) and think it would be fun...It is NOT fun. The aftermath is just unreal.

[deltadog03]

Maybe a jog NNE right now....so....we shall see, what happens...I still think landfall will be around morehead city....

[tolakram]

Live visible loop, speed up for best effect: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

Latest Image

[ozonepete]

I wonder what kind of influences the higher latitudes will play on Irene, models continue to deepen the storm (pressure wise) even as it gets north of the Carolinas.

The HPC surface chart for Sunday morning has Irene merging with an approaching cold front just as it gets to New Jersey. The upper level charts show that there may be an area of strong vorticity at the base of a 500mb trough approaching and Irene's interaction with it could re-energize the storm. That could cause the winds to maintain longer. In the past (1954) this happened with Hurricane Hazel and she kept hurricane winds all the way up into Canada. That may be why the models keep it so strong. Anyway, something to watch for after it gets past Hatteras.

[imetrice]

I don't know about anyone else, but I felt the way some here did before Ike came ashore and ran right over top of us in downtown Houston. "It's only going to be a cat 1 or TS when it hits us", my boss said. "This is going to be really cool", my friends and I thought ( we were young =/ ).

First, let me say the obvious, that I'm not an expert and PLEASE rely solely on the official channels for actual information.

But, for those of you who haven't been through a hurricane, it's NOTHING like you're expecting. There's nothing that can possibly prepare you for the experience of a huge, relatively slow-moving hurricane coming through. Even if you don't live in a mandatory evacuation area or you live in high ground far from the coast like I did, a hurricane was nothing like I was expecting. I was excited, honestly and thought it was going to be really exhilarating. It's not. Its really, really terrifying and even sub-hurricane force winds were very destructive over the 10-12 hours or more that Ike made Houston it's home.

PLEASE don't take this post as even REMOTELY predictive, or containing any knowledge of incoming weather anywhere in the world. Rely solely on official channels and the National Weather service for your preparations.

I simply posted this because Ike really changed my perceptions forever of what mother nature is capable of and years later, I have no desire to ever repeat the experience of watching my windows cave in an hour into the storm. If one person in a danger area reads this and decides to take it seriously, it's worth it.

I agree.....I thought we were reasonably safe from Gustav because we were so far inland (Alexandria, La)220 miles from landfall, but hours after the wind had blown off the storm doors, and shattered windows....I was still trying to comfort my 7 yr old who was terrified of the howling winds....then from the flooding that followed from all the rain, I lost my car (parked in the street). And Gustav made landfall as a Cat 2....It is an experience I plan not to repeat...

[Hurricaneman]

I wonder what kind of influences the higher latitudes will play on Irene, models continue to deepen the storm (pressure wise) even as it gets north of the Carolinas.

The HPC surface chart for Sunday morning has Irene merging with an approaching cold front just as it gets to New Jersey. The upper level charts show that there may be an area of strong vorticity at the base of a 500mb trough approaching and Irene's interaction with it could re-energize the storm. That could cause the winds to maintain longer. In the past (1954) this happened with Hurricane Hazel and she kept hurricane winds all the way up into Canada. That may be why the models keep it so strong. Anyway, something to watch for after it gets past Hatteras.

a little QG forcing can do alot for these things farther north, I hope this doesnt happen with Irene

[wxman57]

Nice color shot of the globe from NASA. It's HUGE so I'll just post a link:

http://7.mshcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... e-huge.jpg

[ROCK]

if I see another post that down plays the recent down swing in convection I am going to jump out my window...thank god I live in a single story house...

Right now she is firing back up as she gets closer land...land friction can do wonderous thing to to TC....IKE was strengthening as he neared the coast....also she is over some warm water and shear has relaxed....high end cat 2 border 3 looks like a good bet....not the winds though that freaks me out....its the fact the Hwinds are over 100 miles away from the center....add 22ft waves to the storm surge you got massive damage inland...