StormingB81 wrote:JMA is calling it a TD
Oops JTWC, long day... Any how I bet they are just waiting for it to define itself before warning on it, don't want to put out something then have the track change drastically.
WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re:
Oops JTWC, long day... Any how I bet they are just waiting for it to define itself before warning on it, don't want to put out something then have the track change drastically.
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StormingB81
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P.K.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W [Falcon]
For the record this was the 06Z position of the TD.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 11N 132E WNW 10 KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 11N 132E WNW 10 KT
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W [Falcon]
Just made a new video on Falcon and a little on Zamia, this is my last video update for awhile as well. I'm taking off here soon, right now looks like I might see some high waves as well. We will see... Any how pat will be putting them together as well. Good stuff!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPS7oyVih8U[/youtube]
And as always I gave storm2k a shout out.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPS7oyVih8U[/youtube]
And as always I gave storm2k a shout out.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W [Falcon]
For a weather enthusiast newbie like me, I am really amazed with how ECMWF has hinted a large cyclone forming west of PI for some days now. 
Last edited by dexterlabio on Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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dexterlabio
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I kinda remembered STY Nanmadol in 2004 because of its size.....afaik Nanmadol also took some time to develop because of its "enormous" circulation, but it was able to become a Cat 4 STY...though I believe that storm could be a lot stronger if not because of its very wide area. Okay kinda OT but this may be reflected to this system, not sure if it will get really strong though it may be possible that this can turn into a TY for some time.
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dexterlabio, yeah the ECM has been pretty consistant about developing this.
As I said before, I suspect we will see some development with this system, how strong it gets though is anyone's guess!
As I said before, I suspect we will see some development with this system, how strong it gets though is anyone's guess!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W [Falcon]
This system reminds me to 2009 Morakot, it formed from a large monsoon gyre, it took some time for it to get organized because of its size anyway the problem with it was not the wind but the rains, it was a very deadly typhoon for Taiwan, let's hope that it doesn't happen again. From a meteorological point of view this systems are very interesting though.
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WTPQ21 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 12.0N 131.4E POOR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 14.5N 129.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
TPPN11 PGTW 211221
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (NE OF MINDANAO)
B. 21/1132Z
C. 13.4N
D. 130.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP YIELDED A 1.0 DT. MET
AND PT INDICATE 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 12.0N 131.4E POOR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 14.5N 129.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
TPPN11 PGTW 211221
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (NE OF MINDANAO)
B. 21/1132Z
C. 13.4N
D. 130.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP YIELDED A 1.0 DT. MET
AND PT INDICATE 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
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Very big system but it does look quite good at least on the IR there. Good for steady strengthening.
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Good discussion in SSD's latest satellite bulletin:
TXPQ25 KNES 211518
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)
B. 21/1432Z
C. 11.6N
D. 130.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...MONSOON TROF HAS YET TO REALLY DEVELOP A CLOSED LLC AS
CURRENT CENTER ESTIMATE IS BASED ON CURVED BANDING FEATURES INTERSECTING
LONG E-W CONVERGENCE LINE /MONSOON TROF. LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE
NORTH HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION AND BANDING STRUCTURE
AS WELL. BANDING IS LIMITED BUT .2 OR .3 WITH WHITE AND YIELDS 1.5
THOUGH IF GENEROUS COULD BE 2.0. MET IS 1.5. PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON
DT. IT IS CLEAR THAT THE INTENSITY/WINDS ARE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER THAN
THE DVORAK INTENSITY SCALE WILL PROVIDE FOR THIS STORM.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
21/0850Z 11.3N 131.2E SSMIS
...GALLINA
ASCAT shows low circulation clearly:
TXPQ25 KNES 211518
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)
B. 21/1432Z
C. 11.6N
D. 130.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...MONSOON TROF HAS YET TO REALLY DEVELOP A CLOSED LLC AS
CURRENT CENTER ESTIMATE IS BASED ON CURVED BANDING FEATURES INTERSECTING
LONG E-W CONVERGENCE LINE /MONSOON TROF. LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE
NORTH HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION AND BANDING STRUCTURE
AS WELL. BANDING IS LIMITED BUT .2 OR .3 WITH WHITE AND YIELDS 1.5
THOUGH IF GENEROUS COULD BE 2.0. MET IS 1.5. PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON
DT. IT IS CLEAR THAT THE INTENSITY/WINDS ARE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER THAN
THE DVORAK INTENSITY SCALE WILL PROVIDE FOR THIS STORM.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
21/0850Z 11.3N 131.2E SSMIS
...GALLINA
ASCAT shows low circulation clearly:
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QS does suggest its still a little on the broad side but conditions aloft are pretty condusive for development its got to be said.
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StormingB81
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Extratropical94
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This system has scattered, but still quite intense convection. And with the given setup in terms of environmental conditions (as mentioned in the TWO) this should ramp up pretty fast.
Most of the models have it going through the Korea Strait between South Korea and Japan, let's see how much we can rely on them this time.
Most of the models have it going through the Korea Strait between South Korea and Japan, let's see how much we can rely on them this time.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
ECM developing this one a little more then it was yesterday...
ECM also suggests its a Taiwan threat before any other threat and therefore is going to need close watching.
This area has been a bit of a breeding ground in the last few weeks hasn't it!
ECM also suggests its a Taiwan threat before any other threat and therefore is going to need close watching.
This area has been a bit of a breeding ground in the last few weeks hasn't it!
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wxman57
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Re: WPAC: 99W [Falcon] - Tropical Depression
I've seen several 35kt ship reports both north and south of the center today. Dvorak now at 2.5 to 3.0. Appears to be a TS. Wonder why JTWC Hasn't begun advisories? It's surely stronger than the system near China.
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wxman57
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Re:
StormingB81 wrote:AND the NRL site is now saying it is Tropical Depression 7.....We now have it official!
JMA is the official naming agency in the West Pac. They called it a TD yesterday.
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P.K.
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Re: WPAC: 99W [Falcon] - Tropical Depression
WTPQ21 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 12.7N 130.8E POOR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 16.0N 129.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 12.7N 130.8E POOR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 16.0N 129.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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