ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

HWRF evades the Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Is my memory correct? I recall HWRF was on the money last year in forecasting the track of Tomas. If so, here's hoping it is true again this year.

Yes,that is correct. Hopefully,the trend is to recurve because we dont need a cat 1 or higher nailing us.

[capepoint]

What are the chances that this system makes landfall along the Eastern Seaboard?

Any storm that tracks thru or near the NE caribean islands has an above-average chance of being an east coast threat. But it's way to early to tell right now. Have to wait for it to actually form before the models will get a good grasp on it. IF it does form, we should have a good idea of whether it is a gulf or Atlantic threat by Sunday/Monday.

[cycloneye]

The SSD floater is up.

[HURAKAN]

It's my opinion that we should wait until it develops to start fearing it. Right now it has a long way to go before being a menace to anyone. It's large, convection is sparce and any low level center is not well-defined. With that said, anyone in the Lesser Antilles should keep an eye on it.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[OuterBanker]

Cycloneye, I'm hoping that you avoid Emily too.

Historically, many storms that strike NC go through PR first.

[carpe vinum]

Development has consensus, but what is that ridge going to do over the next week?

[sicktght311]

So........this is not what i wanted to see today. I have a cruise coming from miami to key west to cozumel and back leaving august 4th, returning august 8th. And something special is suppposed to go down on that cruise between my girlfriend and I *cough*ring*cough*.

So far it seems like tracks take it to the north of the yucatan and over cuba etc. Any clue what the current models do in terms of time frame for the area? I'm not so knowledgeable on how to track the models in terms of time frame. Does each dot on a model represent 6 hours? 12 hours?

[Frank2]

Development has consensus, but what is that ridge going to do over the next week?

Per the earlier post the models show the ridge moving east, which would be a saving grace for the US - don't want a budget default and natural disaster happening all in the same week!

And, the arctic trough similar to last year continues to move lobes through eastern Canada, which similar to last summer is pushing the subtropical ridge eastward every few days:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php ... ion=us&t=l

Frank

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ok so in summary we can say that:
-GFDL, SHIPS, IVCN, LGEM, HWRF, CMC make 91L a hurricane.
-CMC, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, BAMS, GFDL move 91L very close to the islands, some of them north and other south, so we still have to wait to have a better idea of the track.

Ok Caribbean friends it seems that it's almost a given that it will pass near the islands though the intensity and track is still uncertain, hopefully all of you will manage the situation very well .

[Bocadude85]

Development has consensus, but what is that ridge going to do over the next week?

Per the earlier post the models show the ridge moving east, which would be a saving grace for the US - don't want a budget default and natural disaster happening all in the same week!

Frank

Just finished reading the NWS Miami discussion and found this part rather interesting.

EXTENDED FORECAST...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE S GREAT
PLAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE W
ATLC. STEERING WINDS DEVIATE FROM EASTERLY BY MID WEEK DUE TO THE
ADJACENT UPPER TROUGH TO NORTHERLY BUT LEAN MORE EASTERLY THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT E

[hurricanejustin]

So am I correct in saying that weaker system = more westerly, and stronger=more northerly?

[HURAKAN]

842
NOUS42 KNHC 291400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 29 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-059

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATVIE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: INVEST SUSPECT
AREA AT 31/1800Z NEAR 14.0N 54.0W.
3. REMARK: P-3 MISSIONS FOR 29/1200Z AND 30/0000Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 28/2345Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[HURAKAN]

So am I correct in saying that weaker system = more westerly, and stronger=more northerly?

That's what happens in general with all storms.

[RL3AO]

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 291400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 29 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JULY 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-059

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATVIE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: INVEST SUSPECT
       AREA AT 31/1800Z NEAR 14.0N 54.0W.



[hurricanejustin]

So am I correct in saying that weaker system = more westerly, and stronger=more northerly?

That's what happens in general with all storms.

With Ike, I recall that being quite organized as it traversed the Atlantic, and yet it kept on west all the way to the gulf - what was the difference with that storm?

[Frank2]

Yes, that's consistent with the other poster who said the high would move east - more of a recurve issue for 91L it seems at this point, at least for the US...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

So am I correct in saying that weaker system = more westerly, and stronger=more northerly?

That's what happens in general with all storms.

With Ike, I recall that being quite organized as it traversed the Atlantic, and yet it kept on west all the way to the gulf - what was the difference with that storm?

Yes but Ike was weird!! It was over 20ºN but in general, systems down by 10ºN tend to keep going west if weak and move farther north if strong.

[RL3AO]

If there is a ridge north of it it will move west, even if its a category 5 (see Dean and Felix). If there is a trough or a weakness north of the storm it will start to move north, even if its a tropical wave/depression.

[cycloneye]

The saving grace for the Lesser Antilles/VI/Puerto Rico/Bahamas/ Eastern Seaboard is that the trough deepens a bit. Not the case for our friends in Bermuda.But is early to say for sure if that occurs.

[GrimReaper]

So........this is not what i wanted to see today. I have a cruise coming from miami to key west to cozumel and back leaving august 4th, returning august 8th. And something special is suppposed to go down on that cruise between my girlfriend and I *cough*ring*cough*.

So far it seems like tracks take it to the north of the yucatan and over cuba etc. Any clue what the current models do in terms of time frame for the area? I'm not so knowledgeable on how to track the models in terms of time frame. Does each dot on a model represent 6 hours? 12 hours?

Just think how memorable it will be as the ship is rocking side to side, and your lady is throwing up all over you!!!!! Best wishes on your engagement!!!