WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 15.4N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 16.0N 127.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[StormingB81]

Not exactly the most agressive forecast from the JWTC I see...

To be expected given the huge uncertainty over the Guam blob's development and potential DCI with 14W. Who the hell knows what's going to happen lol, that's why I hate (potential) Fujiwhara so much!

I dont believe what I am seeing deom EXMWF..is that both storms hitting us or consolidating into one as it comes over the islands?

No, only one storm near you and well offshore to NE so it wouldn't be a big deal for Okinawa. Obviously given the crazy solutions ECMWF has been sprouting recently I wouldn't pay much attention to any single run until one or both of these storms are fully formed.

I just know looking at the runs the last couple of days is making my head spin...lol

[StormingB81]

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... t_anim.gif

That thing next to it is huge!

[phwxenthusiast]

the IR overlay on that image needs to be adjusted imho, to the east lol! it has the center just off the coast of Luzon when it is more than 350km east of Virac in reality haha...

but yeah 97W IS huge!!!

[supercane]

Big change in forecast from JTWC, now up to typhoon strength:

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.5N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.0N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.5N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.4N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.7N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.2N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 127.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 12 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONVECTION ORGANIZING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 222346Z SSMIS SERIES
INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, BUT THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SHOWS WELL ORGANIZED CLOUD
LINES FEEDING INTO THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVELS
OF TD 14W AND A TUTT CELL EAST OF THE RYUKYUS, BUT THE TUTT CELL IS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CHANNEL WILL
CUT OFF SOON. OUTFLOW TO THE OTHER QUADRANTS IS UNIMPEDED BUT
NOTHING SPECIAL. THE 221200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT TD 14W EXISTS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A
HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 31 DEGREES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
THREE SHIP REPORTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORM. TD 14W IS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PART OF A DEVELOPING MONSOON GYRE. A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 5N 140E IS PROVIDING A GENTLE
POLEWARD NUDGE TO THE SYSTEM, BUT THE LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING
FORCE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA IS MAKING FOR GENERALLY SLOW AND
ERRATIC MOVEMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN FOR TD 14W. IT
ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES TD 14W WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH SLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUING. THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND LACK OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY DESPITE THE
LOSS OF ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. INFLUENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE BETA EFFECT WILL MAKE FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST. A DEVELOPING MONSOON GYRE PATTERN WILL MAKE FOR AN
INCREASINGLY COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS TIME GOES ON. TD 14W
WILL BEGIN DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES WEST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR TAU 72.
THERE IS A WIDE DISPARITY IN TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 48, BUT SUCH
DISAGREEMENT IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE INTRINSIC COMPLEXITY AND
EARLY STAGE OF THE DEVELOPING GYRE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS COMING
INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT, INDICATING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO JUST
BELOW TYPHOON STRENGTH AT TAU 72.
C. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE PENDING FORMATION OF A MONSOON GYRE OVER
WESTPAC, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE GYRE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WILL IMPACT TD 14W. AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES TD 14W WILL CONTINUE A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS
PART OF A CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND A SYSTEM TO ITS NORTHWEST THROUGH
TAU 120. THE JWTC STAYS POLEWARD OF CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED
RANGES.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Big change in forecast from JTWC, now up to typhoon strength:

Yup, no such thing as consistency at JTWC!

I'd be surprised if this doesn't make it to typhoon strength given the time of year and the real estate it has. Just wish the Guam blob could have waited until next week to form.

[StormingB81]

Big change in forecast from JTWC, now up to typhoon strength:

Yup, no such thing as consistency at JTWC!

I'd be surprised if this doesn't make it to typhoon strength given the time of year and the real estate it has. Just wish the Guam blob could have waited until next week to form.

Gonna be aninteresting week tracking things. It can hurry up to make up its mind what it wants to do so we know..lol

[Typhoon Hunter]

Gonna be aninteresting week tracking things. It can hurry up to make up its mind what it wants to do so we know..lol

Yeah I agree! This is why I hate Fujiwhara / DCI, the uncertainty, especially for those potentially in its path (or who want to get into its path like me ). We've been dead for 2 weeks and now two come along at once and just mess with each other!

[StormingB81]

Gonna be aninteresting week tracking things. It can hurry up to make up its mind what it wants to do so we know..lol

Yeah I agree! This is why I hate Fujiwhara / DCI, the uncertainty, especially for those potentially in its path (or who want to get into its path like me ). We've been dead for 2 weeks and now two come along at once and just mess with each other!

LOL COme to Okinawa the way this year is going it wouldnt be a bad bet..lol however if it comes monday parents gonna be mad cause it is the first day of school...lol

[euro6208]

I just wish one of these systems would form by next week but since their both developing, i don't think they will be strong typhoons at the end but we will see what happen.

[StormingB81]

ECMWF has changed ALOT..going into Souther japan instead of Okinawa now..I am sure it will change though

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF has changed ALOT..going into Souther japan instead of Okinawa now..I am sure it will change though

More garbage from ECMWF lol

This makes me think JTWC might upgrade 14W to a TS at next advisory:

TPPN11 PGTW 230644

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 23/0532Z

C. 15.9N

D. 127.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 0.7 CONVECTIVE WRAP ON THE LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 2.5. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LANZETTA

[StormingB81]

I amgoing to wait a couple of days see what it wants to do then i think we will get a clearer picture.easy answer I took yeslol

[bob rulz]

It certainly looks stronger than a TD in the visibles...it looks a lot more organized than it did a few hours ago. I wouldn't be surprised if it was 45-50mph now.

[phwxenthusiast]

well it is a tropical storm now for JTWC (JMA still TD)... Dvorak now at 3.0 and NRL also showing this as 35kts... JTWC's update will be up in a few minutes btw...

still tricky forecast indeed with model solutions still varying widely: a range from Taiwan all the way to Southern Japan (Kyushu/Shikoku)... storming's right, time will tell lol...

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.3N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.6N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.6N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.6N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.3N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.8N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 127.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
230534Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED, TIGHTER CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM 35 (KNES) TO 45 (PGTW) KNOTS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE KNES ESTIMATE
AND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE LOW-RESOLUTION AMSU IMAGE AND MSI,
WHICH SHOWED A DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL
LOCATED JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS FAIR WITH
STRONG DIFFLUENCE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 FOLLOWED
BY ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD AS 14W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF GUAM AFTER 24-36 HOURS. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS A COMPLEX GYRE PATTERN WHICH WILL LIKELY INVOLVE
FUJIWARA BETWEEN TWO DEVELOPING SYSTEMS AFTER TAU 72, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS (TAU 72-120). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND
240900Z.//

[dexterlabio]

Euro not too excited with this in their latest run compared to the previous one, but centered more on 97W. IMO the latest run seems more normal and not too "bizarre" if I may describe it... It's hard to imagine how two typhoons with almost equally intense circulation having DCI near each other. The most "usual" scenario I can easily think of is that the other system will be more dominant and the weaker one will get absorbed into the stronger circulation. However, it seems that 14W displays more potential compared to 95W as of this moment, so I guess it will be the other way around.

Well, crazy things do happen in the Western Pacific. And also, 95W is exhibiting potential to become a strong system. This week, we will witness two systems having their battle for supremacy...and I'm pretty confident about that.

(My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Good thoughts Dexter, also I wanted to run by you I noticed a few days ago you posted the potentiol for Fujiwara effect, In JT's most recent prog reasoning they started putting it in there too. So good forecast and looking out.

Agreed on 95 being picked up more than 14W right now, GFS really wants to develop it in to a Major typhoon. What would be great is if they both form up and keep each other weak by feeding off one anothers energy. That would be a nice scenario.

[Chacor]

11th named storm of the season is Nanmadol.

WTPQ20 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1111 NANMADOL (1111) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 16.0N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHWEST 90NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 16.8N 127.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251200UTC 17.8N 127.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 261200UTC 18.9N 127.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

JMA has it moving north the entire forecast period, not gaining or losing a single degree in longitude!