WPAC: TALAS - Remnants (1112/15W)

[Chacor]

That track looks an absolute disaster for Fukushima.

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 140.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 140.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 24.5N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.2N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.2N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.1N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.4N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 32.3N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 35.6N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 140.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES VERIFY THAT TS 15W IS STILL MOVING
NORTHEAST, ALBEIT SLOWLY. THE 24 HOUR NET MOVEMENT IS NORTHEAST AT
LESS THAN 03 KNOTS. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS VERY SLOW CONSOLIDATION
OF THE CONVECTION AROUND AN EXPANSIVE AND MOSTLY CLOUD-FREE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 37GHZ 282027Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS
THICK CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT THE HIGHER FREQUENCY IMAGERY DOES NOT
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE ARE BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT THEY ARE DISPLACED FROM THE CORE. THE
DISPLACEMENT OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER IS MAKING
DVORAK ASSESSMENTS LESS REPRESENTATIVE OF ACTUAL INTENSITY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE, A
PRESSURE REPORT FROM A BUOY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND REPORTS
FROM IWO TO. IWO TO HAS BEEN SEEING SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
SOUTHEASTERLIES WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT TS 15W HAS DEVELOPED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND INSULATED
ITSELF FROM THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 27 TO 28 DEGREES. TS
15W IS UNDER WHAT IS LEFT OF A NARROW TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT), CONFINED ON THE POLEWARD SIDE BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. THE 281200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
ANTICYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE STR NEAR 29N 133E. THE ANTICYCLONE HAS
BEEN RETROGRADING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE STORM DIRECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
RETROGRADES TO SOUTHWEST OF KYUSHU, LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN THE 135TH AND 140TH MERIDIANS. IN THE MID-
LATITUDES, A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND BUILD AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN
PACIFIC. TS 15W WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND STEADLY INTENSIFY.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 27 DEGREES OR HIGHER ALONG
TRACK AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS.
C. AS THE OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP AND THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BETWEEN
THE 150TH AND 155TH MERIDIANS, IT WILL BLOCK TS 15W FROM EASTWARD
MOVEMENT AND THE STORM WILL BE FORCED INTO MAINLAND JAPAN. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND
INTENSITY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS EAST OF CONSENSUS AND ECMWF
IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR AN EXTREME WESTWARD OUTLIER (EGRR).
CURRENTLY, THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A LAND STRIKE FROM THE
SOUTH SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ISE WAN AND THE CHIBA PENINSULA. THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL DO A LOT TO FOCUS THE TRACK, AS IT BECOMES EVIDENT
PRECISELY WHEN AND WHERE TS 15W MAKES THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.
LONG-RANGE PROGS ARE INDICATING HEIGHTS OVER 5760M AS FAR NORTH AS
MISAWA NEAR TAU 96, WHICH INDICATES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
BE DISPLACED SO FAR POLEWARD THAT TS 15W WILL REMAIN IN A BAROTROPIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALL THE WAY TO LANDFALL.
HENCE, THE FORECAST IS FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL.//
NNNN

TXPQ26 KNES 290311
TCSWNP
A. 15W (TALAS)
B. 29/0232Z
C. 23.8N
D. 140.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT 3.0. MET IS A
3.5. PT IS A 3.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NEWHARD

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 23.8N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 25.4N 139.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 310600UTC 27.5N 138.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 010600UTC 30.5N 138.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[euro6208]

talas getting better organized. during the next 6 to 12 hours, talas should slow to develop but after i expect a faster intensification trend. i wouldn't be surprised if this peak near 100 knots


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[KWT]

What a HUGE looking inner core, one of the biggest eyes I've ever seen, fair play to the ECM for forecasting the large eye.

Looks like a big threat to Japan, even more so due to its large size.

[euro6208]

what the? this does look like a typhoon and is a typhoon with a huge eye. talas is underestimated big time. i would place the intensity of this huge typhoon at 85 knots 1 minute winds

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[KWT]

Its a really odd looking system, I've not often seen a system look quite like that.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya, it does look decent at first glance, but when you analyze it, there is a lot of DAA in to it, many of the high cloud tops are blown off on the northern periphery and overall it is not that organized near the center. I don't think that is so much an eye, but just a broad area of no convection near the center (don't know if there is a technical difference. )

[RobWESTPACWX]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U6RIAoH4Rs[/youtube]

My first Video Update in nearly three month, plus I've been awake for nearly 24 hours due to this storm approaching the Kanto Plain, really keeping me busy. Any how... just posting it here.

[RobWESTPACWX]

IWO TO continues to show 33kts right outside the center of this system

[Chacor]

JMA is up to 60 kt.

WTPQ21 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 24.1N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 26.2N 139.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 311200UTC 28.2N 137.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 011200UTC 31.7N 138.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[supercane]

12Z advisory roundup:
ZCZC 730
WTPQ51 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 24.1N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 26.2N 139.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 311200UTC 28.2N 137.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 011200UTC 31.7N 138.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 021200UTC 37.4N 140.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
120HF 031200UTC 44.6N 142.3E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT =
NNNN

WTPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 24.3N 140.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 140.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.1N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.0N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.0N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 28.1N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 31.3N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 35.4N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 42.0N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 24.5N 140.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z
AND 301500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVING, TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290908Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH A DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
THEREFORE, THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION AND GOOD EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING
OUTFLOW (NEAR-RADIAL) OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 55
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND ON OBSERVATIONS FROM IWO TO, LOCATED 65 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST, INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 30-40 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 50-60 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK INCREASINGLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO TRACKER WHICH IS DISPLACED
WEST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS (ECMWF, JGSM,
GFDN, NOGAPS, WBAR AND GFS). ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA IS ALSO IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT AND INDICATES LANDFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR THE KANTO PLAIN.
TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU
72 AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. THUS FAR, THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
SPEED WITH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING MUCH FASTER TRACK SPEEDS AFTER
TAU 72. THE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR TO BE EXCESSIVELY FAST AND INDICATE
AN UNREALISTIC TRACK INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AFTER TAU 96. BASED ON
THIS PROBLEM, THE FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AT TAU 120.
TS 15W WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION INITIALLY THEN INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 96. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING THE STRONG SHEAR ZONE, ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND
A FRONTAL ZONE, WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EAST SEA. TS 15W IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96.//
NNNN

Latest Dvorak estimates:
TXPQ26 KNES 291550
TCSWNP
A. 15W (TALAS)
B. 29/1501Z
C. 24.5N
D. 139.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 7/10 AROUND LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF
3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GUILLOT

TPPN12 PGTW 291235
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 29/1132Z
C. 24.2N
D. 140.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 0.90 CONVECTIVE WRAP ON THE LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LANZETTA

[supercane]

18Z JMA advisory upgrades to typhoon:
ZCZC 917
WTPQ51 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1112 TALAS (1112) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 24.7N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 26.8N 138.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 311800UTC 28.7N 137.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 011800UTC 32.8N 138.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 021800UTC 39.1N 141.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
120HF 031800UTC 47.4N 143.9E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 21KT =
NNNN

TPPN12 PGTW 291813
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 29/1732Z
C. 24.6N
D. 139.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. 35NM SHEAR YIELDED A 3.5
DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

[RobWESTPACWX]

A quick video on the storm this morning.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEQJvvbXgT8[/youtube]

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 24.6N 139.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 139.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.6N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.5N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.6N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.8N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 32.3N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 36.3N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 42.1N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 139.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 29/1703Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
THE STRONGEST BANDS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS WITH A
WEAKER BAND CLOSER TO THE LLCC IN THE SW QUADRANT. CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN IR WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
HAS REMAINED STEADY AND IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. TS 15W
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH NOGAPS, EGRR, WBAR, AND GFDN
WELL TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS. GFS AND JGSM REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS. ECMWF REMAINS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, WITH A LANDFALL
WEST OF THE KANTO PLAIN. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAD BEGUN TO SPREAD
AS WELL, WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM WEST OF KYOTO TO EAST OF TOKYO.
TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 72 AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 80 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72 TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
LAND AND WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN AND NORTHERN
HONSHU. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR
TAU 96 AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
Morning vis:

TXPQ26 KNES 292155
TCSWNP
A. 15W (TALAS)
B. 29/2032Z
C. 25.0N
D. 140.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...TALAS' SATELLITE DEPICTION HAS CHANGED LITTLE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH BANDING WRAPPING 6 TENTHS AROUND LLCC BUT CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN
CONCENTRIC TO AND REMOVED NEARLY UNIFORMLY 1 DEGREE FROM LLCC AS OPPOSED
TO WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE 6 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=3.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RUMINSKI
Still without a solid core:

Looks like JTWC is the only one keeping this as a (S)TS:
JMA: 65kt
KMA: 35 m/s (68kt)
CMA: 33 m/s (64kt)
CWB: 33 m/s (64kt)
JTWC: 55kt

[KWT]

Still one of the most odd looking system I've ever seen, the highest winds will likely be a decent distance away from the center, more like an extra-tropical system really in that respect!

[supercane]

00Z JMA (updated with 5-day when available):
ZCZC 620
WTPQ51 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1112 TALAS (1112)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 25.2N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 27.0N 138.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 010000UTC 29.2N 137.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 020000UTC 33.6N 138.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 030000UTC 40.6N 141.4E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
120HF 040000UTC 50.0N 144.7E 450NM 70%
MOVE N 24KT =
NNNN

TPPN12 PGTW 300009
A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS)
B. 29/2332Z
C. 25.2N
D. 139.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .80 WRAP YIELDED A
3.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

[Chacor]

Looking more and more like the worst-case scenario will pan out.

[supercane]

[/URL]
WTPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 25.3N 139.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 139.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.2N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.2N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 28.5N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 33.2N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 37.1N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 43.1N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 139.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 34
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

I continue to think the intensity will not be so high, just my thoughts and want to stress just my thoughts. But so much suppression ahead of this, it is dis-organized and exposed as well.

I guess I'm alone on this one.

I still think it will bring a lot of rain though, and the tsunami hit areas are going to potentially be a huge flood problem.