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TAFB says possible tropical cyclone in 72 hours.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
SYNOPSIS 2011091900
P28L … 98L
11N, 37W
700 hPa
Stationary period should last for only a day or so. For that reason, I determined a phase speed for its subsequent westward motion. Result: The initial positions may be a little too far north.
ECMWF: Uncertain positions for the first 12 hours. Intensifies and moves westward, just a slight northward turn at the end of the five days.
GFS: Intensifies over the next few days. Stationary for one day, then tracks westward.
UKMET: Westward motion the entire time. Intensifies soon.
NOGAPS: Intensifies (although not as much as it intensifies 97L) and tracks westward.
HWRF-GEN: Similar to other models. Intensifies and moves westward.
ECMWF -7.4 v700 120h
GFS -6.8 v700 120h
UKMET -7.1 v700 120h
NOGAPS -6.8 v700 120h
HWGEN -7.4 v700 120h
Code: Select all
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110919 1800 110920 0600 110920 1800 110921 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 38.7W 11.8N 40.3W 12.0N 42.5W 12.2N 45.1W
BAMD 11.7N 38.7W 12.1N 40.0W 12.7N 41.7W 13.3N 43.7W
BAMM 11.7N 38.7W 11.8N 40.1W 12.0N 41.9W 12.3N 44.1W
LBAR 11.7N 38.7W 12.1N 40.1W 12.9N 42.0W 14.0N 44.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110921 1800 110922 1800 110923 1800 110924 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 48.4W 11.9N 55.3W 11.2N 61.7W 11.9N 66.6W
BAMD 13.9N 45.9W 14.9N 50.4W 16.2N 54.3W 18.0N 57.5W
BAMM 12.5N 46.5W 12.8N 51.7W 13.7N 56.3W 15.5N 60.2W
LBAR 15.2N 46.9W 18.2N 52.2W 21.1N 56.8W 24.0N 60.0W
SHIP 42KTS 41KTS 40KTS 42KTS
DSHP 42KTS 41KTS 40KTS 42KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 38.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 37.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 36.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Hylian Auree wrote:I'm sort of curious as to what track this will take. I see no reason for significant gain of latitude... maybe a smoothed slightly north of west motion till the Caribbean?
Hylian Auree wrote:I'm sort of curious as to what track this will take. I see no reason for significant gain of latitude... maybe a smoothed slightly north of west motion till the Caribbean?
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