ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[GreenWinds]

Which model has done the best job up until now predicting Irene's intensity?

[Ivanhater]

if I see another post that down plays the recent down swing in convection I am going to jump out my window...thank god I live in a single story house...

Right now she is firing back up as she gets closer land...land friction can do wonderous thing to to TC....IKE was strengthening as he neared the coast....also she is over some warm water and shear has relaxed....high end cat 2 border 3 looks like a good bet....not the winds though that freaks me out....its the fact the Hwinds are over 100 miles away from the center....add 22ft waves to the storm surge you got massive damage inland...

Good post...the damage has been done already...due to the large size, she has already piled up massive amounts of water. It is too late, that water will not go down and has to go somewhere, and on the track that is into very vulnerable areas and highly densely populated areas.

[CronkPSU]

According to that sfmr, surface winds are barely hurricane strength

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Jevo, I wish to say thanks for all of your effort on this models thread the last four days or so. I have looked close at many an image you have taken the time to upload.
-WLD

[Hurricaneman]

I'm a bit confused, the last recon report stated maximum flight level wind of 105 knots...so why is Irene currently classified as 100 mph?

DECODED VDM OBS 22

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 17:24Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 17:06:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°02'N 77°29'W (31.0333N 77.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 191 miles (307 km) to the SE (130°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,660m (8,727ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 137° at 92kts (From the SE at ~ 105.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 84 nautical miles (97 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.08 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 13:36:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WSW (251°) from the flight level center

Weak convection is my guess, winds dont get to the surface with weak convection, because in normal conditions, this would be 110mph

[terrapintransit]

Nice color shot of the globe from NASA. It's HUGE so I'll just post a link:

http://7.mshcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... e-huge.jpg

WOW! That is impressive WXMAN57...Thanks for posting

[tolakram]

Flight level winds are always stronger than surface winds. You need to either apply a standard reduction (best guess) or use surface observed winds (SFMR).

[Clint_TX]

if I see another post that down plays the recent down swing in convection I am going to jump out my window...thank god I live in a single story house...

Right now she is firing back up as she gets closer land...land friction can do wonderous thing to to TC....IKE was strengthening as he neared the coast....also she is over some warm water and shear has relaxed....high end cat 2 border 3 looks like a good bet....not the winds though that freaks me out....its the fact the Hwinds are over 100 miles away from the center....add 22ft waves to the storm surge you got massive damage inland...

http://7.mshcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... e-huge.jpg

Like that's not going to kick the snot out of someone.....YEAH RIGHT!!!!!

We Ike folks know....

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Good post...the damage has been done already...due to the large size, she has already piled up massive amounts of water. It is too late, that water will not go down and has to go somewhere, and on the track that is into very vulnerable areas and highly densely populated areas.

EXACTLY. Since she's not going out to see, what went up from the ocean, will come down as rain, and LOTS OF IT!

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Nice color shot of the globe from NASA. It's HUGE so I'll just post a link:

http://7.mshcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... e-huge.jpg

I am so in awe. That is so Beautiful.

[GreenWinds]

According to that sfmr, surface winds are barely hurricane strength

Okay, so now I'm a bit more confused..if at the surface winds are only about 80 mph, then why did the NHC keep Irene a 100 mph category 2 storm?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Irene appears to be looking a bit better right now.

[Stormcenter]

That's hard to believe when you look at the latest satellite image. I mean she may not be Cat.3 right now
but there is no doubt in my mind she's a hurricane. Oh well all of these wind/pressure/etc. measurements are just plain
confusing some times. IMO

According to that sfmr, surface winds are barely hurricane strength

[JPmia]

Maybe a jog NNE right now....so....we shall see, what happens...I still think landfall will be around morehead city....

I agree looks like Morehead City or just to the east say Harkers Island area.. right on NHC track and right along with 12z GFS & Euro models with some minor deviations... the modeling consistency is amazing with this storm. Guess we're lucky for that.. both model tracks look to pile lots of water up into bays and harbors from NC to NY. This should be interesting .. especially if you're 50 stories up in a NYC high rise with 50 mph winds and gusts.. yikes.

*My opinion and not official!*

[Hurricaneman]

We'll find out the real winds in about 12 hours

[fci]

if I see another post that down plays the recent down swing in convection I am going to jump out my window...thank god I live in a single story house...

Right now she is firing back up as she gets closer land...land friction can do wonderous thing to to TC....IKE was strengthening as he neared the coast....also she is over some warm water and shear has relaxed....high end cat 2 border 3 looks like a good bet....not the winds though that freaks me out....its the fact the Hwinds are over 100 miles away from the center....add 22ft waves to the storm surge you got massive damage inland...

You can't blame people for getting a little excited with relief that Irene is not going to hit with the force that was originally feared.
Stories of flooded NYC and parts of NC washed away were streaming out when Irene was looked to be a Cat 4 by now and maybe a 2/3 headed into NC and then up I-95 with winds at maybe a strong 1 or 2 when she got to NYC pushing an armageddon storm surge that would flood out Manhattan and knock down skyscrapers.
Now, the storm has not reached the level of strength that many feared and it will be a hurricane that is a 1 maybe a 2 when it reached the coast and the NWS says there is an 11% chance of Hurricane force winds for NYC.
This is NOT to downplay the effects of Hurricane hitting any coast and hitting NYC and the NE corridor as a borderline Hurricane or Strong TS or with the force that a bad Nor'easter gives in the winter.
I live in Palm Beach County south of where Frances and Jeanne struck and we had winds of no more than 90 or so but for many hours and the sounds coming from outside were frightening. Wilma was a 2 and did a tremendous amount of damage here so I know what a Hurricane can do.
I also know that Irene WILL NOT be as bad as originally feared and that it is OK for people to sigh a bit of relief at that.
They should not think that it will be a non-event but the hype has made it seem apocalyptic and it will probably not be that .
Let's just all try to stay realistic and not preach to people how they should and should not feel.
That includes myself; so if those in the path want to have panic attacks feel free and if some want to take a deep breath, stay calm and be prepared for whatever happens, they should do that.
Off my soapbox and back to lurking.......
Good luck to all in the path.

[Portastorm]

That's hard to believe when you look at the latest satellite image. I mean she may not be Cat.3 right now
but there is no doubt in my mind she's a hurricane. Oh well all of these wind/pressure/etc. measurements are just plain
confusing some times. IMO

According to that sfmr, surface winds are barely hurricane strength

You're right Stormcenter. I'm not sure why Cronk wrote this ... but winds are 100 mph at the surface based on that SFMR. That is a lot more than "barely hurricane strength."

[Dave C]

looking at visable you can see it's trying to hollow out a bigger eye but a fragment of the inner eyewall is still spinning around inside it. If the outer eyewall closes up than the inner remnant will finally clear out. Just my observation. That microwave imagery posted earlier shows the outer eyewall feature open to the south.

[Cranica]

looking at visable you can see it's trying to hollow out a bigger eye but a fragment of the inner eyewall is still spinning around inside it. If the outer eyewall closes up than the inner remnant will finally clear out. Just my observation. That micowave imagery posted earlier shows the outer eyewall feature open to the south.

Recon's not reporting an eye at all as of the last VDM, and she really doesn't have time to assemble one anymore.

[Recurve]

Besides paying attention to the official National Hurricane Center your local NWS office, I wish more people knew about the NOAA Hurricane Research Division (HRD) analysis. It's a scale called "IKE." Scientists map the wind field of the system and calculate the total energy (Integrated Kinetic Energy, or IKE), and they get two numbers: Wind Damage Potential and Surge/Wave Damage Potential.

They split the storm's "category" that way to give a better ranking than the Saffir-Simpson Category regarding the damage the storm can do. In a nutshell, the surge has a lot more to do with the size of the storm, the extent of tropical-storm and hurricane-force winds, the total energy of the system, than just a Category like 2 or 3 tells you.

FOR IRENE, the SURGE DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS 5.1 on a scale of 6. Very roughly, think of Irene as a "Category 4" hurricane when you think about what the surge damage could be. That is what the IKE analysis is saying.

QUOTE: "Destructive Potential Rating(0-6) Wind 2.9 , Surge/Waves 5.1.

That quote is from the 1630z IKE analysis (2:30 EDT Friday, Aug. 26)

The home page of the Irene analysis is here: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind.html

The Hurricane Research Division home page: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/

An article about the IKE patent granted this summer, I hope in easy to understand terms: http://www.keysnet.com/2011/08/05/365464/scientists-awarded-patent-for.html

I noticed a few people referring to the IKE scale, I'm glad to see it, but I wish Norcross and Knapp and Cantori were racing to have the IKE team on camera. Dr. Powell, one of the IKE developers, is a low-key guy. If he had the flair for self-promotion that Gray, Bastardi and some others have, the IKE scale would be a top story in the New York Times and the main headline on CNN, but he's not a self-promoter.

Shout out to Hogweed for taking up the IKE cause too in recent postings.

The takeaway: The latest scientific analysis by NOAA atmospheric physics experts shows Irene's surge could be much worse than its wind speed or Saffir-Simpson "Category" might make you think.

Many people on the Bolivar peninsula of Texas, who stayed home during Hurricane Ike because it was "only a Cat 2," were killed. The bodies of 23 of them have never been found.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.