ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[tailgater]

Not too strong yet. Still elongated.

[wjs3]

Nice observation there, Ozonepete.

Yeah, earlier, those seabreeze front induced storms looked to be linking up, almost like a feeder band (of course they really weren't) to the main t-storm complex. It was cool to see the south Cuba Seabreeze come screaming across the island and explode when it hit the north coast seabreeze--which was being held in check by that same gradient. I think it made ex-Emily look a bit more impressive than the "true" trof/wave related storms earlier today.

Edited to add--Sorry...I've been focused on the t-storms in eastern Cuba--induced by the southerly flow in the east of the wave, which enhanced the south coast sea breeze--see you're talking about the other side of it!

[ozonepete]

BTW, if Emily goes back to her old intense nocturnal flareups from DMAX, this could really blow up fast.

[ozonepete]

Not too strong yet. Still elongated.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF

Yeah. I think as the western Cuba seabreeze storms die out the whole system will get a more rounded shape and that will help it spin up more. symmetry is everything for these systems.

[wjs3]

:uarrow: BTW, if Emily goes back to her old intense nocturnal flareups from DMAX, this could really blow up fast.

Last night was the only miss, and you ahve to think that it was because two of the key elements were missing...1) deep convection so there are cloud tops to cool and 2) over water, so the surface-cloud top temp differential is greater

Tonight--deep convection, over water. Figure we're going to get a flare up as long as shear or dry air doesn't surprise us.

[GCANE]

Well I'm listening because I'm not satisfied with the mountains of DR explanation. I think there's much more to it.

I having been running a thread on the solar activity since Saturday if your interested.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=111305

[artist]

the closer it gets to Florida the Gulf Stream is waiting.

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: BTW, if Emily goes back to her old intense nocturnal flareups from DMAX, this could really blow up fast.

Last night was the only miss, and you ahve to think that it was because two of the key elements were missing...1) deep convection so there are cloud tops to cool and 2) over water, so the surface-cloud top temp differential is greater

Tonight--deep convection, over water. Figure we're going to get a flare up as long as shear or dry air doesn't surprise us.

Yes wjs. I think game is on tonight.

[ozonepete]

Watch the loops, especially the wider ones: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

... and you can see a pretty strong tug to the NNW now. Note the top of the main blob getting pulled northward. That tells me this will probably pick up some speed overnight towards the NNW. Of course tomorrow night or Sunday it will start turning northeastward due to the trough.

[wjs3]

Check out 1 KM, though. There's actually a hot tower that's popped at the north end of the blob (along with a few others along the periphery). Might that be making things look a little more "pulled" that way?

This new convection seems odd. Why have all of those storms firing at almost the same time along the edge of the "blob" at the same time the main convective mass is warming? Why not have lots more going on near the center of the convection, in a more continuous way???

Could the main convection have burped out an outflow as it was warming, and we're seeing new storms fire on that boundary? Just an odd, odd place (and timing) for new convection...

[artist]

current infrared image from GOES

[tgenius]

So what time tomm should we be expecting the rain in South Dade? Want to know if we do our grocery shopping early or later in the day.

[artist]

So what time tomm should we be expecting the rain in South Dade? Want to know if we do our grocery shopping early or later in the day.

I would suggest earlier just to be on the safe side.

[jinftl]

Probably a dumb question but here goes, if this organized into a named storm would it be named Emily or Franklin?

Reason I ask is because as of last discussion on Emily Thursday at 5pm edt, the NHC said the system dissipated:

EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I was wondering if this had anything to do with Emily's sudden and dramatic collapse. It would seem plausible. Solar flares have a large effect on the ionosphere. What effect would all that charging have on rain storms and clouds in a hurricane? I'm thinking about both the height of the ionosphere and those mysterious sprites over thunderstorms.

I really know nothing about it, but it is interesting.

The geomagnetic storm has a LOT to do with radio, the electronics in our satellites, and our earths magnetic field, but little has been shown to correlate with any effect on the weather. When the CME arrived it was actually audible on the radio (at 21mhz the static significantly changed for instance). But wiping a tropical system, especially when the CME arrived hours after the system had collapsed? And what of its effect on Eugene? I don't think there's any correlation at all.

[umguy]

I wanna go outside and see if i can see an Aurora. They are reporting being able to see them in the middle latitudes. Before the clouds of whatever is coming this way gets too thick.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Actually, all week long Emily's intensity almost precisely seemed to be modulated by the effect of the ionosphere being heated over her due to solar x-ray activity.

Thanks for noticing.

Is there any actual data to back that up?

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/plots/xray.html

Here are plots of the xray flux. I can't be bothered to plot this against any storms intensity, but maybe someone has the means.

I just don't see that. Also - at first glance it might seem that Emily seems to lose convection during the day (when the Earth faces sunward) and gain some at night, but that can be much more easily explained by the D-Min D-Max cycle rather than space weather.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Nope! I just joined.

I was really surprised when Emily fell apart like that. I read in the news about the flare and then saw it mentioned here... well two synapses got together and I thought maybe there's a correlation.

one wonders if Gcane and TAD are one and the same?

A coincidence. Emily hit Hispaniola. Thats it. It has happened hundreds of times before, at least a half dozen in recent memory, mayhaps every time during a solar flare? Probably not. The storm was struggling all morning as she had shear and the drying out due to orographic lifting, plus the fuel source slowly choking. What happened to her was fully expected, explained by meteorology and simple physics, and not a mystery at all.

[wxman57]

Surface obs from SE FL to Andros to northern Cuba still don't indicate much there. Very little to cause convergence so that convection will persist in an area. Not much chance of any development as it passes Miami tomorrow morning. All the squalls should remain mostly offshore and across the Bahamas. By Sunday, the remnants should be turning NE and heading out to sea. Latest model guidance indicates an even sharper NE turn.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Nope! I just joined.

I was really surprised when Emily fell apart like that. I read in the news about the flare and then saw it mentioned here... well two synapses got together and I thought maybe there's a correlation.

one wonders if Gcane and TAD are one and the same?

Well I'm listening because I'm not satisfied with the mountains of DR explanation. I think there's much more to it.

What exactly don't you understand about it?