ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I came across this and it might help answer the age old question....Which model should you trust?
Taken from..WorldWeatherPost.com
http://www.worldweatherpost.com/

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2011/2010_skill.png
Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a “consensus” forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)

How things have changed this year, definitely the ECMWF has not been as good as the last two years, I would say that it has been inconsistent and at time over aggressive with development & strength with systems.

[Florida1118]

Yeah seems to be a shift North, but lets all remember Irene. Its not done until its done

[gatorcane]

Nice discussion from kimberlain and looks like they are leaning more towards the gfs which does not even let this get out of the Caribbean.

I have been leaning towards this solution also or for the solution where it gets ripped apart before it could cause any problems for Florida.

[Macrocane]

Plane is on its way now, I can post the observations but who wants to post the graphics?

[cycloneye]

Plane is taxing at runway. Who is going to stay up and post the data of this mission?

URNT15 KNHC 250241
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 01 20111025
023130 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +168 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023200 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023230 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +166 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023300 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +169 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023330 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +167 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023400 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +170 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023430 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023500 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023530 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023600 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +166 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023630 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023700 3024N 08856W 0217 00001 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023730 3024N 08856W 0217 00006 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023800 3024N 08856W 0217 00006 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023830 3024N 08856W 0217 00007 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023900 3024N 08856W 0217 00004 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
023930 3024N 08856W 0217 00006 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024000 3024N 08856W 0217 00006 //// +167 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024030 3024N 08856W 0217 00007 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024100 3024N 08856W 0217 00007 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05

[SouthDadeFish]

The NHC is really thinking this thing will weaken quickly. The wind speed probability forecast gives a much larger chance that Rina will be a TS in 120 hours than a hurricane, but the official forecast still calls for a hurricane. Strange.

[cycloneye]

Plane is on its way now, I can post the observations but who wants to post the graphics?

Ok good my friend.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250251
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 02 20111025
024130 3024N 08856W 0217 00007 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024200 3024N 08856W 0217 00006 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024230 3024N 08856W 0217 00006 //// +166 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024300 3024N 08856W 0217 00006 //// +168 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024330 3024N 08856W 0217 00006 //// +167 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024400 3024N 08856W 0217 00006 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024430 3024N 08856W 0216 00004 //// +167 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024500 3024N 08856W 0216 00004 //// +167 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024530 3024N 08856W 0216 00006 //// +165 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024600 3024N 08856W 0215 00006 //// +166 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024630 3024N 08856W 0213 00007 //// +166 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024700 3024N 08856W 0213 00006 //// +171 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024730 3024N 08856W 0215 00004 //// +170 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
024800 3024N 08856W 0212 00004 //// +169 //// 015001 003 /// /// 05
024830 3025N 08855W 0222 00003 //// +168 //// 008006 013 /// /// 05
024900 3026N 08855W 0013 00172 //// +188 //// 015017 017 /// /// 05
024930 3027N 08854W 9841 00320 //// +181 //// 033016 018 /// /// 05
025000 3028N 08853W 9550 00574 //// +169 //// 070014 015 /// /// 05
025030 3030N 08853W 9220 00875 //// +149 //// 080019 019 /// /// 05
025100 3030N 08855W 8907 01167 //// +150 //// 054021 023 /// /// 05
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

A nice band is developing on the western and northern sides of Rina:



Deep convection continues to fire.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250301
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 03 20111025
025130 3028N 08857W 8676 01388 //// +140 //// 054021 022 /// /// 05
025200 3027N 08858W 8350 01719 //// +127 //// 057020 021 /// /// 05
025230 3025N 08859W 8059 02016 //// +117 //// 056020 020 /// /// 05
025300 3023N 08900W 7793 02285 //// +098 //// 051016 019 /// /// 05
025330 3021N 08901W 7507 02591 //// +082 //// 051013 014 /// /// 05
025400 3019N 08903W 7273 02856 //// +090 //// 030016 016 /// /// 05
025430 3018N 08904W 7059 03101 //// +085 //// 006016 018 /// /// 05
025500 3016N 08905W 6968 03223 //// +083 //// 355014 015 /// /// 05
025530 3014N 08906W 6960 03230 //// +082 //// 355014 014 /// /// 05
025600 3012N 08907W 6846 03362 //// +075 //// 004014 015 /// /// 05
025630 3010N 08908W 6682 03555 //// +061 //// 009014 015 /// /// 05
025700 3008N 08910W 6527 03746 //// +054 //// 013015 015 /// /// 05
025730 3006N 08911W 6383 03930 //// +042 //// 015015 016 /// /// 05
025800 3004N 08912W 6246 04118 //// +030 //// 008018 019 /// /// 05
025830 3002N 08913W 6118 04285 //// +023 //// 000020 022 /// /// 05
025900 3000N 08915W 5989 04463 //// +020 //// 014015 017 /// /// 05
025930 2958N 08916W 5866 04631 //// +013 //// 017012 013 /// /// 05
030000 2956N 08917W 5750 04790 //// -001 //// 020013 013 /// /// 05
030030 2954N 08918W 5641 04942 //// -015 //// 020013 014 /// /// 05
030100 2952N 08920W 5533 05091 //// -028 //// 015014 015 /// /// 05
$$
;

[NDG]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0246.shtml

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST RINA TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.

Why would Kimberlain mention how the 12z ECMWF dissipates Rina, when first of all the model has been inconsistent with Rina for the last couple of days and secondly the run was started with Rina as a weak TS.
The run is trash because it weakens Rina to a 1008mb storm by Wednesday morning.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250311
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 04 20111025
030130 2950N 08921W 5432 05241 0282 -041 //// 013015 015 /// /// 05
030200 2948N 08922W 5329 05391 0289 -054 //// 015016 016 /// /// 05
030230 2946N 08923W 5229 05542 0298 -068 //// 017017 018 /// /// 05
030300 2944N 08925W 5133 05681 0305 -081 //// 015018 019 /// /// 05
030330 2942N 08926W 5043 05818 0311 -094 //// 017019 019 /// /// 05
030400 2940N 08927W 4957 05957 0317 -106 //// 020016 018 /// /// 05
030430 2937N 08928W 4861 06106 0324 -118 //// 005013 013 /// /// 05
030500 2935N 08930W 4766 06257 0330 -125 //// 330014 015 /// /// 05
030530 2933N 08930W 4675 06405 0337 -130 //// 322014 015 /// /// 05
030600 2931N 08930W 4603 06524 0344 -138 //// 326015 016 /// /// 05
030630 2929N 08929W 4542 06625 0349 -140 //// 331014 015 /// /// 05
030700 2926N 08929W 4452 06762 0348 -144 //// 329008 011 /// /// 05
030730 2924N 08928W 4367 06910 0356 -149 //// 328004 004 /// /// 05
030800 2922N 08928W 4298 07033 0363 -155 //// 336004 004 /// /// 05
030830 2920N 08927W 4239 07138 0369 -161 //// 317003 003 /// /// 05
030900 2918N 08927W 4181 07242 0375 -170 //// 275003 004 /// /// 05
030930 2916N 08926W 4128 07347 0382 -178 //// 257004 004 /// /// 05
031000 2913N 08926W 4074 07445 0388 -187 //// 242004 005 /// /// 05
031030 2911N 08925W 4024 07536 0393 -194 //// 225004 004 /// /// 05
031100 2909N 08925W 3996 07586 0396 -200 //// 216004 004 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Macrocane]

URNT15 KNHC 250321
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 05 20111025
031130 2907N 08924W 3992 07595 0396 -200 //// 232004 004 /// /// 05
031200 2905N 08924W 3992 07592 0396 -200 //// 239005 005 /// /// 05
031230 2902N 08923W 3994 07591 0396 -200 //// 232005 005 /// /// 05
031300 2900N 08923W 3991 07597 0396 -200 //// 229005 005 /// /// 05
031330 2857N 08922W 3976 07622 0397 -200 //// 232005 005 /// /// 05
031400 2855N 08921W 3978 07620 0398 -200 //// 245004 005 004 000 05
031430 2853N 08921W 3977 07624 0398 -200 //// 250005 005 004 001 05
031500 2850N 08920W 3978 07621 0398 -200 //// 248005 006 004 000 01
031530 2848N 08920W 3977 07622 0398 -200 //// 243004 005 008 000 01
031600 2845N 08919W 3978 07621 0398 -200 //// 247004 004 015 000 01
031630 2845N 08919W 3978 07621 0397 -200 //// 240005 005 019 000 01
031700 2840N 08918W 3976 07623 0397 -200 //// 257004 004 019 000 01
031730 2838N 08917W 3978 07620 0397 -200 //// 264005 005 018 000 01
031800 2835N 08917W 3978 07620 0396 -200 //// 264007 008 016 000 01
031830 2833N 08916W 3978 07617 0395 -200 //// 267006 006 019 000 01
031900 2830N 08916W 3978 07616 0395 -200 //// 271006 007 019 000 01
031930 2828N 08915W 3974 07624 0394 -200 //// 277006 007 019 000 01
032000 2825N 08915W 3981 07610 0393 -200 //// 271007 007 020 000 01
032030 2823N 08914W 3975 07623 0394 -204 //// 256008 008 020 000 01
032100 2821N 08913W 3976 07617 0392 -204 //// 252008 008 020 000 01
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

I have no idea NDG. I agree. If the 00Z runs still drop it then I'll believe them.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250332
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 06 20111025
032130 2818N 08913W 3979 07612 0392 -205 //// 256008 008 020 001 01
032200 2816N 08912W 3974 07622 0392 -201 //// 268007 007 018 000 05
032230 2813N 08911W 3982 07609 0393 -200 //// 254007 007 023 000 01
032300 2811N 08910W 3974 07627 0395 -200 //// 242007 008 023 001 01
032330 2809N 08909W 3980 07615 0396 -200 //// 239009 009 023 000 01
032400 2806N 08908W 3974 07627 0396 -203 //// 239008 009 023 000 01
032430 2804N 08907W 3979 07617 0396 -205 //// 244007 008 022 001 01
032500 2802N 08906W 3978 07619 0395 -205 //// 250007 007 022 000 01
032530 2800N 08905W 3980 07613 0394 -205 //// 248007 007 023 001 01
032600 2757N 08904W 3972 07627 0394 -205 //// 247007 007 024 000 01
032630 2755N 08902W 3980 07612 0392 -205 //// 244008 008 021 000 01
032700 2753N 08901W 3978 07618 0393 -205 //// 244008 008 021 000 01
032730 2750N 08900W 3975 07620 0393 -205 //// 245008 008 021 001 01
032800 2748N 08859W 3979 07612 0392 -202 //// 252009 009 022 000 01
032830 2746N 08858W 3976 07618 0392 -200 //// 258008 009 021 000 01
032900 2743N 08857W 3980 07609 0391 -200 //// 259008 008 022 000 01
032930 2741N 08856W 3978 07614 0392 -200 //// 262007 007 022 000 01
033000 2739N 08855W 3974 07622 0392 -200 //// 265006 006 022 000 01
033030 2736N 08853W 3979 07612 0391 -200 //// 266006 007 022 001 01
033100 2734N 08852W 3978 07614 0391 -198 //// 268004 004 023 000 01
$$
;

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250351
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 08 20111025
034130 2646N 08829W 3976 07616 0390 -198 //// 007002 004 028 001 01
034200 2643N 08828W 3980 07610 0391 -199 //// 344002 003 027 000 01
034230 2641N 08827W 3977 07616 0391 -195 //// 001003 003 027 001 01
034300 2639N 08826W 3978 07614 0390 -195 //// 023003 004 028 000 01
034330 2637N 08825W 3978 07612 0390 -195 //// 030004 005 027 000 05
034400 2634N 08824W 3978 07614 0391 -194 //// 047004 004 028 000 01
034430 2632N 08822W 3978 07615 0391 -195 //// 043003 004 028 000 01
034500 2630N 08821W 3978 07616 0392 -195 //// 053004 005 028 000 01
034530 2627N 08820W 3976 07617 0392 -196 //// 062002 003 029 000 01
034600 2625N 08819W 3976 07618 0393 -196 //// 079002 003 029 000 01
034630 2623N 08818W 3978 07616 0392 -197 //// 077003 003 030 000 01
034700 2620N 08817W 3977 07617 0392 -197 //// 088003 003 029 000 01
034730 2618N 08816W 3978 07616 0392 -195 //// 078003 003 029 000 01
034800 2616N 08815W 3978 07615 0391 -195 //// 066003 004 029 000 01
034830 2613N 08814W 3978 07615 0390 -196 //// 071004 004 028 000 01
034900 2611N 08813W 3976 07617 0390 -197 //// 074004 004 027 001 01
034930 2609N 08811W 3978 07612 0389 -198 //// 084004 004 024 000 01
035000 2607N 08810W 3978 07611 0388 -200 //// 101004 005 021 001 01
035030 2604N 08809W 3979 07609 0387 -202 //// 104005 006 023 000 01
035100 2602N 08808W 3977 07610 0386 -203 //// 100005 006 022 000 01
$$
;

[Dave]

Macrocane, I'll drop a few pictures but can't stay up long tonight, have a long drive in the morning to make.

Water vapor of Rina:

[Macrocane]

OK thank you very much, I don't think I can be through the entire mission either but I'll try to be here at least until the first VDM.

000
URNT15 KNHC 250401
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 09 20111025
035130 2600N 08807W 3978 07609 0386 -198 //// 078005 005 023 000 01
035200 2557N 08806W 3979 07606 0386 -197 //// 076005 006 021 001 01
035230 2555N 08805W 3978 07610 0387 -195 //// 069006 006 023 000 01
035300 2553N 08804W 3978 07611 0388 -195 //// 062006 006 022 000 01
035330 2551N 08803W 3976 07617 0391 -195 //// 058006 007 022 000 01
035400 2548N 08802W 3978 07619 0395 -198 //// 073007 007 021 001 01
035430 2546N 08801W 3978 07622 0397 -197 //// 067007 007 023 000 01
035500 2544N 08800W 3978 07622 0399 -200 //// 072007 008 023 000 01
035530 2541N 08759W 3978 07622 0398 -200 //// 068008 008 024 000 01
035600 2539N 08757W 3978 07620 0398 -200 //// 077008 008 023 001 01
035630 2537N 08756W 3978 07622 0397 -200 //// 073008 008 026 002 01
035700 2534N 08755W 3978 07622 0397 -199 //// 070008 008 025 001 01
035730 2532N 08754W 3978 07622 0397 -200 //// 077008 009 025 000 01
035800 2530N 08753W 3976 07622 0396 -200 //// 070009 009 024 001 01
035830 2528N 08752W 3978 07620 0396 -200 //// 058009 009 025 000 01
035900 2525N 08751W 3978 07620 0397 -200 //// 072008 008 025 000 01
035930 2523N 08750W 3978 07620 0398 -201 //// 081010 011 024 000 01
040000 2521N 08749W 3978 07620 0398 -201 //// 083011 011 023 001 01
040030 2518N 08748W 3978 07623 0398 -201 //// 077011 011 025 000 01
040100 2516N 08747W 3976 07624 0399 -200 //// 085011 011 023 001 01
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/250246.shtml

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST RINA TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.

Why would Kimberlain mention how the 12z ECMWF dissipates Rina, when first of all the model has been inconsistent with Rina for the last couple of days and secondly the run was started with Rina as a weak TS.
The run is trash because it weakens Rina to a 1008mb storm by Wednesday morning.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

pfffft must be a "wish"caster!

[WeatherEmperor]

.....meanwhile, the 00Z GFS takes Rina closer towards South Florida....but then pushes it South towards Cuba:



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