ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[CW0262]

I'll play to what the heck! closed low

[artist]

ok, so 4 votes for closed low. The plane is geting to the west coast of FLorida. Won't be too much longer until we know. Get your votes in now!

Surprised noone has said open!

[mutley]

Ill play too One closed low by Grand Bahama.

thanks Boca,
That is 2 votes for closed.

Mostly closed at 26N & 77.5W

[Dave]

[Florida1118]

ok, so 4 votes for closed low. The plane is geting to the west coast of FLorida. Won't be too much longer until we know. Get your votes in now!

Surprised noone has said open!

I going to say open, just because Emily likes to be weird and do things oddly. And I guess ill have to be the devils advocate.

[artist]

4 closed
1 mostly closed.
1 open

Is that so you can win either way??

[mutley]

ok, so 4 votes for closed low. The plane is geting to the west coast of FLorida. Won't be too much longer until we know. Get your votes in now!

Surprised noone has said open!

I going to say open, just because Emily likes to be weird and do things oddly. And I guess ill have to be the devils advocate.

With Emily, that is sound reasoning.

[northjaxpro]

Another vote for a closed LLC when Recon arrives.

[MGC]

Looks like a closed circulation to me....but with this system you never know...looks real good on radar....drifting to the NW?.....MGC

[mutley]

4 closed
1 mostly closed.
1 open

Is that so you can win either way??

No, I just have no idea, but wanted to play.

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 3

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:47Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 5 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 03

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 18Z on the 6th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 500mb
Coordinates: 27.8N 85.1W
Location: 162 miles (260 km) to the W (266°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1016mb (30.00 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 30.2°C (86.4°F) Approximately 25°C (77°F) 250° (from the WSW) 6 knots (7 mph)
1000mb 139m (456 ft) 28.8°C (83.8°F) 24.2°C (75.6°F) 240° (from the WSW) 6 knots (7 mph)
925mb 829m (2,720 ft) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 18.8°C (65.8°F) 240° (from the WSW) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 1,564m (5,131 ft) 19.8°C (67.6°F) Approximately 12°C (54°F) 300° (from the WNW) 2 knots (2 mph)
700mb 3,210m (10,531 ft) 10.0°C (50.0°F) 5.4°C (41.7°F) 185° (from the S) 6 knots (7 mph)
500mb 5,930m (19,455 ft) -5.3°C (22.5°F) Approximately -16°C (3°F) 120° (from the ESE) 12 knots (14 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:31Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 27.86N 85.06W
Splash Time: 17:38Z

Release Location: 27.85N 85.05W View map)
Release Time: 17:31:04Z

Splash Location: 27.86N 85.06W (
Splash Time: 17:38:17Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 446mb to 1015mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 245° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 6 knots (7 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1016mb (Surface) 30.2°C (86.4°F) Approximately 25°C (77°F)
969mb 26.2°C (79.2°F) 23.7°C (74.7°F)
916mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) 18.8°C (65.8°F)
850mb 19.8°C (67.6°F) Approximately 12°C (54°F)
835mb 19.2°C (66.6°F) Approximately 9°C (48°F)
712mb 10.6°C (51.1°F) 6.8°C (44.2°F)
633mb 5.0°C (41.0°F) 0.4°C (32.7°F)
621mb 4.4°C (39.9°F) Approximately -3°C (27°F)
571mb 0.0°C (32.0°F) -2.3°C (27.9°F)
556mb -1.1°C (30.0°F) Approximately -6°C (21°F)
540mb -2.5°C (27.5°F) -5.2°C (22.6°F)
526mb -2.9°C (26.8°F) Approximately -16°C (3°F)
516mb -3.5°C (25.7°F) Approximately -16°C (3°F)
484mb -6.9°C (19.6°F) Approximately -16°C (3°F)
446mb -11.5°C (11.3°F) Approximately -24°C (-11°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1016mb (Surface) 250° (from the WSW) 6 knots (7 mph)
968mb 225° (from the SW) 2 knots (2 mph)
886mb 275° (from the W) 6 knots (7 mph)
850mb 300° (from the WNW) 2 knots (2 mph)
522mb 140° (from the SE) 14 knots (16 mph)
510mb 115° (from the ESE) 11 knots (13 mph)
461mb 115° (from the ESE) 12 knots (14 mph)
446mb 140° (from the SE) 14 knots (16 mph)




[Dave]

649
URNT15 KNHC 061756
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 08 20110806
174630 2735N 08332W 4464 06815 0415 -110 -286 143013 014 /// /// 03
174700 2735N 08329W 4464 06815 0415 -110 -274 144013 014 /// /// 03
174730 2734N 08326W 4462 06820 0416 -109 -272 152013 013 /// /// 03
174800 2734N 08323W 4463 06815 0413 -110 -252 149013 013 /// /// 03
174830 2733N 08320W 4464 06813 0413 -105 -262 146013 013 /// /// 03
174900 2733N 08317W 4463 06813 0412 -105 -264 142012 013 /// /// 03
174930 2732N 08314W 4463 06813 0411 -110 -238 140012 012 /// /// 03
175000 2732N 08311W 4464 06811 0412 -110 -241 141012 012 /// /// 03
175030 2731N 08308W 4463 06813 0412 -110 -253 143012 012 /// /// 03
175100 2731N 08305W 4461 06819 0413 -110 -279 144012 013 /// /// 03
175130 2730N 08302W 4464 06810 0412 -110 -258 143011 011 /// /// 03
175200 2730N 08259W 4464 06813 0413 -110 -276 141012 012 /// /// 03
175230 2729N 08256W 4463 06815 0413 -106 -291 142011 012 /// /// 03
175300 2728N 08253W 4464 06811 0412 -108 -288 142010 011 /// /// 03
175330 2728N 08250W 4463 06815 0412 -105 -292 137011 011 /// /// 03
175400 2727N 08247W 4463 06814 0412 -105 -290 138011 011 /// /// 03
175430 2727N 08244W 4464 06813 0412 -105 -293 138011 011 /// /// 03
175500 2726N 08241W 4463 06814 0413 -109 -289 143011 012 /// /// 03
175530 2726N 08238W 4464 06814 0414 -110 -299 142011 012 /// /// 03
175600 2725N 08236W 4464 06813 0414 -110 -294 138012 012 /// /// 03
$$
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[cycloneye]

they just took off~
anyone able to do images?

Yes,here we go. Interesting that the header says Emily and not Invest.

AF307 1405A EMILY HDOB 01 20110806

yes, like their earlier statement that included Tropical Storm Emily. Makes you go hmmm.

They changed back from Emily to Invest as header.That is why the first observation was repeated.

[Rgv20]

On visible and Radar it certainly looks like a circulation is in the process of closing.

[gatorcane]

Looks closed to me and drifting NW. I say we have TS Emily again. Upper-level winds are helping to give it that nudge to the West as they are blowing out of the east...lots of drought-busting rain over the Bahamas and a huge mass of it is sitting offshore the SE Coast of FL. I think it is going to get close but the bulk of it will probably stay at least 30-40 miles to the east. So close, yet so far (big bummer we can really use a good deluge).....maybe we will get lucky and the system will take a big "wobble" to the west....

[artist]

Dave ready for me to take over yet?

[crimi481]

N.JAX
What mechanism will be pulling Emily north , before she crosses S. Fl?
Possible when it is hugging Fl west coast - it go more north. (it appears)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Right now, the system is meandering around or drifting slowly due to being temporarily in a weak steering environment being in a weakness between the Large Death Heat Ridge over the Southern U.S. and the ATL Bermuda ridge displaced to the east. The trough that came off the East Coast of the U.S. the past couple of days has lifted out, leaving this weakness in between the two ridges behind in its wake for the remnants of Emily to get drawn into it.

Now, whatever becomes of Emily in the next 12 hours will drift and meander some, in fact it could drift it within even a bit closer to the SE coast of FL . But, by tomorrow for sure, another shortwave moving down over the top of the Southern U.S. ridge should be enough for whatever becomes of Emily to move NE away from the FL coast and out into the Atlantic.

I guess big question is, how far south will that Short Wave digs. If it misses Emily - she could traverse central Gulf?

[artist]

4 closed
1 mostly closed.
1 open

Is that so you can win either way??

No, I just have no idea, but wanted to play.

I am sort of on the bench here too!

Now 7 closed
2 mostly closed
1 open

[Dave]

[Dave]

600
URNT15 KNHC 061807
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 09 20110806
175630 2725N 08233W 4463 06816 0414 -110 -261 136012 012 /// /// 03
175700 2724N 08230W 4464 06814 0414 -110 -266 135012 012 /// /// 03
175730 2724N 08227W 4462 06817 0414 -110 -262 136013 013 /// /// 03
175800 2723N 08224W 4464 06813 0413 -110 -259 141014 014 /// /// 03
175830 2723N 08221W 4463 06814 0413 -110 -243 141013 014 /// /// 03
175900 2722N 08218W 4463 06814 0412 -110 -247 141013 013 /// /// 03
175930 2721N 08215W 4463 06815 0412 -110 -249 143011 012 /// /// 03
180000 2721N 08212W 4463 06814 0413 -110 -247 135011 011 /// /// 03
180030 2720N 08209W 4464 06814 0413 -110 -256 132010 010 /// /// 03
180100 2720N 08206W 4464 06814 0414 -110 -256 132010 010 /// /// 03
180130 2719N 08203W 4464 06814 0414 -110 -263 129010 010 /// /// 03
180200 2719N 08200W 4463 06815 0414 -110 -275 126009 009 /// /// 03
180230 2718N 08157W 4464 06811 0412 -111 -254 125009 010 /// /// 03
180300 2718N 08154W 4463 06814 0413 -110 -262 122011 011 /// /// 03
180330 2717N 08151W 4464 06813 0412 -110 -274 123011 011 /// /// 03
180400 2716N 08148W 4464 06813 0412 -110 -262 123010 010 /// /// 03
180430 2716N 08145W 4464 06811 0412 -111 -277 117010 010 /// /// 03
180500 2715N 08142W 4463 06814 0412 -110 -232 111011 012 /// /// 03
180530 2715N 08139W 4464 06810 0411 -111 -234 105010 011 /// /// 03
180600 2714N 08136W 4461 06820 0413 -110 -225 111012 013 /// /// 03
$$
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