ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#841 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:11 pm

Yeah..Yucatan is looking like a good bet

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#842 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:11 pm

Doesn't look like a wave anymore at 700mb and 850mb vorticity has improved a lot since this morning.

Anti-cyclone is sitting directly on top of the LLC.

Looks like it flared some nice OTs to the north of the LLC in the last hour with a good cirrus canopy.




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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#843 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:16 pm

Looks like it is currently an asymmetric warm-core.

PV anomaly is mid-level and relatively weak.


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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#844 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:21 pm

For those of you who are reading this thread and wondering "what the heck is a PV anamoly?" ... it is a Potential Vorticity anamoly.

In other words, what GCANE is suggesting is that 93L had a mid-level center of vorticity and is relatively weak. There are no signs yet of a low-level center or upper level vorticity.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#845 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:28 pm

Portastorm wrote:For those of you who are reading this thread and wondering "what the heck is a PV anamoly?" ... it is a Potential Vorticity anamoly.

In other words, what GCANE is suggesting is that 93L had a mid-level center of vorticity and is relatively weak. There are no signs yet of a low-level center or upper level vorticity.



Thanks Portastorm for the explanation.

An ULL to the NE at 25N 46W seems to be consolidating and could help enhance the development of a poleward outflow channel.

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#846 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:32 pm

I think the general agreement on the track solution is pretty good now, as Wxman57 said the upper high is very strong still and showing few signs of weakening for at least the next week which should be enough to shunt the system westwards into CA/Mexico in the end.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#847 Postby Bluefrog » Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:47 pm

yeah wxman57 .... very serious .... we are only in port at cozumel one day ... i don't think that is happening .... ship will prob go to key west instead .....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#848 Postby Bluefrog » Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Bluefrog wrote:Just curious ... how is my planned cruise to Cozumel looking for Friday night docking and Saturday at port ?!?!?!? :cheesy: :eek: :roll:


You serious? Could be diverted northward until the storm passes on Sunday.


yep seriously ... we are supposed to be there in port there for saturday snorkeling ..... not seeing that happening at this point .... geeezzz timing is everything .... :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#849 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:50 pm

18z Nam goes to town with it

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#850 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:52 pm

Wow the NAM really does bomb the system out doesn't it!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#851 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:03 pm

Oh gawd ... what until ROCK see this run! :lol:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#852 Postby MGC » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:09 pm

Doubt 93L has much of a chance to organize with it moving as fast as it is now....maybe in a couple of days it can get its act together......MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#853 Postby maxintensity » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:10 pm

Way too soon to say with any hint of confidence where final landfall might be over a week from today on a system that has not even developed. The NAM and Nogaps are more northerly and the other models are more southerly. The other models can pull the rug out of that southerly track just as quickly as they put it in. First thing that has to occur is we need a storm to develop.
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#854 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:12 pm

To be fair...those two models you quoted are rubbish :P

The models are pretty strong in agreement at the moment on a CA threat and maybe into the BoC.
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Re:

#855 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:18 pm

KWT wrote:To be fair...those two models you quoted are rubbish :P

The models are pretty strong in agreement at the moment on a CA threat and maybe into the BoC.


Well the Yucatan is where the model consensus is right now, not CA but yeah I doubt the U.S sees much from this one. If you are looking for a scary U.S problem go to the Pouch 17L thread in Talking tropics.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#856 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:18 pm

Low pressure added at 18z Surface analysis

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#857 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:25 pm

Sorry when I say CA threat I tend to lump in the Yucatan, esp southern portions of it in with that "CA" banding.

I suspect the models will shift a touch southwards, track IMO like ECM is probably a good shout right now unless it pulls a little surprise out of the hat.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#858 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:34 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Here "he" comes!

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Very nice loop Ivanhater :) Any link ? Thanks :D
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#859 Postby scogor » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:43 pm

Hello, 93L!! Nice little squall line coming through Frigate Bay here in St. Kitts. Darkening up and windy...
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Re:

#860 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:46 pm

scogor wrote:Hello, 93L!! Nice little squall line coming through Frigate Bay here in St. Kitts. Darkening up and windy...


The San Juan NWS long range radar picks it

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Radar does not update.

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