ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[JTE50]

I got part of the eye yesterday here in Hope Town, Bahamas. Lowest pressure was 954. Winds were every bit of 115mph with higher gusts. I have more pics and video here
http://stormvisuals.com/

That is an impressive video Jim. Do you know of reports of damage or casualties in those islands?

No casualties, the south part of the island was breached. Some damage to homes (roofs- singles, siding, fences) but they are built better than ones in US. I filmed at least one boat swamped when the winds switched after the eye. A few power poles down - but overall they weathered it quite well. Folks here all keep in touch with Marine VHF radio during the storm. Folks on the Islands just seem to be better prepared than in the US.

[cycloneye]

I got part of the eye yesterday here in Hope Town, Bahamas. Lowest pressure was 954. Winds were every bit of 115mph with higher gusts. I have more pics and video here
http://stormvisuals.com/

That is an impressive video Jim. Do you know of reports of damage or casualties in those islands?

No casualties, the south part of the island was breached. Some damage to homes (roofs- singles, siding, fences) but they are built better than ones in US. I filmed at least one boat swamped when the winds switched after the eye. A few power poles down - but overall they weathered it quite well. Folks here all keep in touch with Marine VHF radio during the storm. Folks on the Islands just seem to be better prepared than in the US.

Looks like they fared relativly well and as you said,they are well prepared.

[Annie Oakley]

Snoop are you good at that? I am not the most astute at reading/interpreting the obs...

Green I bet someone will interpret significant findings as they occur and will keep everyone up to date. Lots of veterans and experienced people on the board.

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270432
AF306 3109A IRENE HDOB 09 20110827
042300 3037N 08329W 3443 08686 0460 -250 //// 303016 016 /// /// 05
042330 3037N 08326W 3441 08686 0454 -250 //// 304015 015 /// /// 05
042400 3038N 08322W 3443 08684 0456 -248 //// 301016 017 /// /// 05
042430 3039N 08319W 3442 08688 0457 -247 //// 303017 017 /// /// 05
042500 3039N 08316W 3442 08686 0457 -247 //// 309016 017 /// /// 05
042530 3040N 08313W 3443 08685 0457 -245 //// 306016 017 /// /// 05
042600 3040N 08310W 3443 08685 0456 -245 //// 301018 018 /// /// 05
042630 3041N 08307W 3442 08688 0458 -241 //// 298017 017 /// /// 05
042700 3042N 08303W 3442 08688 0457 -242 //// 302017 017 /// /// 05
042730 3042N 08300W 3442 08688 0457 -241 //// 302017 018 /// /// 05
042800 3043N 08257W 3443 08686 0457 -242 //// 301018 018 /// /// 05
042830 3043N 08254W 3442 08688 0457 -239 //// 300016 017 /// /// 05
042900 3044N 08251W 3442 08685 0456 -235 //// 298014 015 /// /// 05
042930 3044N 08247W 3443 08684 0456 -235 -271 296014 015 /// /// 03
043000 3045N 08244W 3442 08685 0456 -236 -265 295013 014 /// /// 03
043030 3046N 08241W 3443 08685 0456 -235 -261 290012 012 /// /// 03
043100 3046N 08238W 3443 08683 0454 -235 -261 282011 012 /// /// 03
043130 3047N 08235W 3443 08683 0454 -236 -260 281011 012 /// /// 03
043200 3047N 08232W 3443 08682 0453 -239 -261 286013 014 /// /// 03
043230 3048N 08228W 3443 08682 0451 -240 -260 287015 016 /// /// 03
$$

[CronkPSU]

ugh...bad time for a problem with the GOES Satellite...anyone else having issues for anything after 4 UTC...

[Hurricaneman]

satellite eclipse, will be back on around 2am

[CronkPSU]

satellite eclipse, will be back on around 2am

dang it...

well we can track using radar...this guy posted a nice site earlier and the eye is just coming into range

http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

[weatherSnoop]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
About to pass JAX

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270442
AF306 3109A IRENE HDOB 10 20110827
043300 3049N 08225W 3441 08685 0452 -240 -261 282015 016 /// /// 03
043330 3049N 08222W 3442 08680 0450 -242 -261 284019 021 /// /// 03
043400 3049N 08219W 3443 08679 0450 -247 -262 291022 024 /// /// 03
043430 3048N 08215W 3441 08682 0450 -244 -261 294015 017 /// /// 03
043500 3047N 08212W 3445 08674 0451 -243 -257 302013 015 /// /// 03
043530 3046N 08209W 3445 08673 0449 -243 -250 289013 013 /// /// 03
043600 3046N 08206W 3443 08677 0449 -246 //// 296015 016 /// /// 05
043630 3045N 08203W 3444 08676 0449 -244 //// 293018 019 /// /// 05
043700 3044N 08159W 3442 08680 0450 -240 -240 296017 017 /// /// 03
043730 3043N 08156W 3442 08678 0448 -237 -239 291017 017 /// /// 03
043800 3043N 08153W 3443 08676 0449 -236 -237 289016 017 /// /// 03
043830 3042N 08150W 3442 08679 0449 -235 -238 287016 016 /// /// 03
043900 3041N 08147W 3443 08677 0448 -235 -240 287016 016 /// /// 03
043930 3040N 08144W 3442 08677 0447 -235 -243 288016 016 /// /// 03
044000 3040N 08140W 3443 08677 0448 -235 -245 288016 016 /// /// 03
044030 3039N 08137W 3443 08674 0448 -233 -248 286016 018 /// /// 03
044100 3038N 08134W 3443 08677 0449 -230 -250 287015 015 /// /// 03
044130 3037N 08131W 3442 08680 0449 -227 -250 288014 015 /// /// 03
044200 3037N 08128W 3442 08678 0447 -225 -251 285015 016 /// /// 03
044230 3036N 08125W 3442 08678 0447 -225 -252 285015 016 /// /// 03
$$

[Harrycane]

The media hype surrounding Irene is ridiculous. Yes it is unusual, but most likely when Irene reaches the north east it will be as a TS at most, with some gusts. A bit of common sense and everything will be allright. Amazingly we have a monster of a typhoon here with 120 knots sustained winds (hopefully moving towards Taiwan) and yet not a word on the press....

[Annie Oakley]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 04:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 31
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 4:33Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 30.8N 82.3W
Location: 51 miles (81 km) to the NW (311°) from Jacksonville, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 8,230 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 290° at 22 knots (From the WNW at ~ 25.3 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -26°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Clear
D-value: 45 geopotential meters

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 80/20.

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND
FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1225 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF WALLOPS
VIRGINIA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 809...

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN A W-E ARC
OF LOW LVL CONFLUENCE MOVING NWD ACROSS NE NC AND THE ADJACENT CSTL
WATERS ON NRN SIDE OF IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF HRCN IRENE. FARTHER
N...A SEPARATE BAND OF MORE INTERMITTENT ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND
MOVE NWD FROM OFF THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.
INCREASING LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD WITH THE CONTINUED NWD MOVEMENT
OF IRENE...AND CONTINUED LOW LVL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF
STORM...WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW
LVL ROTATION/POSSIBLE TORNADOES NWD INTO TIDEWATER VA AND THE LWR
ERN SHORE OF MARYLAND THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING SATURDAY...WHILE
EXISTING THREAT PERSISTS OVER E CNTRL AND NE NC.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 12045.


...CORFIDI

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270452
AF306 3109A IRENE HDOB 11 20110827
044300 3035N 08121W 3442 08680 0448 -225 -252 286016 016 /// /// 03
044330 3034N 08118W 3443 08677 0448 -225 -253 286016 016 /// /// 03
044400 3034N 08115W 3442 08677 0447 -222 -254 285016 017 /// /// 03
044430 3033N 08112W 3443 08675 0446 -220 -253 288017 017 /// /// 03
044500 3032N 08109W 3442 08679 0447 -223 -254 292016 017 /// /// 03
044530 3031N 08106W 3443 08677 0448 -225 -254 295017 017 /// /// 03
044600 3031N 08102W 3442 08679 0448 -225 -255 299017 018 /// /// 03
044630 3030N 08059W 3442 08679 0449 -225 -255 300018 018 /// /// 03
044700 3029N 08056W 3443 08675 0448 -221 -256 303018 019 /// /// 03
044730 3028N 08053W 3442 08678 0447 -220 -257 300020 020 /// /// 03
044800 3027N 08050W 3443 08677 0447 -224 -257 299020 020 /// /// 03
044830 3027N 08047W 3441 08681 0448 -224 -258 299020 020 /// /// 03
044900 3028N 08044W 3445 08669 0447 -217 -258 282020 022 /// /// 03
044930 3029N 08041W 3443 08675 0445 -216 -258 283020 021 /// /// 03
045000 3030N 08038W 3441 08675 0444 -216 -258 282022 022 007 001 03
045030 3031N 08035W 3442 08673 0443 -215 -258 277022 023 008 001 00
045100 3032N 08032W 3442 08675 0445 -215 -259 277022 022 012 001 00
045130 3033N 08029W 3442 08674 0444 -215 -260 281022 023 017 001 00
045200 3034N 08026W 3441 08675 0443 -215 -260 279022 022 020 000 00
045230 3035N 08022W 3443 08671 0442 -215 -259 274022 022 021 001 00
$$

[SouthFloridawx]

For those interested, 00Z GFS has good upper-level air coverage, including 74 CONUS, 14 AK, 32 CAN, 7 MEX, and 7 CARIB RAOBS inputted into 00Z run. Additionally, 42 dropsonde and 14 flight-level recon obs from vicinity of Hrcn Irene were inputted into the 00Z run.

That's amazing. (no sarcasm intended)

[Jevo]

Latest radar center fix from GRLevel 3

32.92 76.63



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 270454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
100 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
290 MILES...465 KM. A NOAA AUTOMATED BUOY IN ONSLOW BAY NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS
MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
NEW YORK...AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A TORNADO WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN BEAUFORT
COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[supercane]

From intermediate advisory:
WTNT34 KNHC 270454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
100 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

[SouthFloridawx]

Once again Irene is going to try like heck to avoid land interaction.

[Hurricaneman]

apparently Irene thinks land is for losers

[SouthFloridawx]

The one small positive is that Irene has not been able to maintain a strong inner core through out the day as well as having to deal with the entrainment of dry air being drawn into the circulation from the southeastern U.S.. The dry air can clearly be seen in WV images:

[img]http://gbimg.org/p.php?q=k8MOo[/]

So thanks to the Texas death ridge the weakening has occurred.