ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

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Dave
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#861 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:57 pm

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#862 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:57 pm

Yeah, I think they will pull the trigger, need to get it out for the public to know what is going on. On a side note, you can tell its the heart of cane season when you are watching 7 threads simultaneously on storm2k. :)
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#863 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:58 pm

Okay one thing I'm pretty sure of what 93L is going to do is move very slowly for the next few days and coastal LA is going to get a soaking....than it has 2 options move NE or WSW.

Was that helpful? :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#864 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:58 pm

now if we can get a good center fix....this data will be in the 0z runs tonight....

which should be about 91W 26.8- ish N......
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Recon Discussion

#865 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:59 pm

tolakram wrote:Do I see west winds there? CLOSEUP! :D


How close do you want it? LOL

RELOAD
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#866 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:04 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 011850
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 16 20110901
184030 2540N 09024W 9591 00457 0099 +255 +225 234008 009 024 000 00
184100 2540N 09022W 9587 00463 0101 +246 +231 200009 011 024 000 00
184130 2541N 09020W 9591 00458 0101 +244 +234 201012 013 024 000 00
184200 2542N 09019W 9585 00465 0102 +246 +232 176008 009 030 000 03
184230 2543N 09017W 9591 00459 0101 +249 +232 171008 010 035 004 00
184300 2544N 09015W 9591 00460 0103 +243 +237 193010 010 032 001 00
184330 2544N 09013W 9589 00462 0102 +246 +234 198010 012 026 000 00
184400 2544N 09011W 9591 00458 0098 +249 +226 198007 008 027 001 00
184430 2545N 09009W 9590 00458 0098 +251 +215 220008 009 027 000 00
184500 2545N 09007W 9589 00459 0099 +245 +230 213009 010 024 000 00
184530 2545N 09005W 9590 00458 0100 +243 +232 200008 008 022 000 00
184600 2545N 09003W 9590 00459 0102 +242 +234 190009 010 023 000 00
184630 2545N 09000W 9589 00463 0102 +242 +232 188010 011 022 000 03
184700 2545N 08958W 9589 00460 0100 +245 +225 182008 009 023 000 00
184730 2544N 08956W 9590 00460 0102 +245 +223 190009 009 024 000 00
184800 2544N 08954W 9590 00458 0100 +245 +222 192010 010 024 000 03
184830 2544N 08952W 9590 00459 0101 +240 +228 188011 012 023 000 00
184900 2544N 08950W 9589 00459 0101 +240 +227 193011 011 023 000 00
184930 2545N 08948W 9591 00457 0100 +240 +227 190013 014 024 000 00
185000 2545N 08946W 9591 00458 0101 +241 +229 193013 014 025 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#867 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:06 pm

one should note if that is the LLC which I think it is..I would be watching current movement.
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#868 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:07 pm

Satellite Updated

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#869 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:09 pm

So if they do decide to upgrade now...I guess watches/warnings would have to go up also at this time considering it is so close to land? What if the system just meanders around like some of the models imply, just perpetual watches/warnings for an entire week until he finally decides to make landfall?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#870 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:10 pm

ROCK wrote:one should note if that is the LLC which I think it is..I would be watching current movement.


Looks west-southwest to me ... but it could also be one of those visible satellite illusions. Thoughts?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#871 Postby Nikki » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:11 pm

ROCK wrote:one should note if that is the LLC which I think it is..I would be watching current movement.



What are your thoughts on this?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#872 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:11 pm

ROCK wrote:now if we can get a good center fix....this data will be in the 0z runs tonight....

which should be about 91W 26.8- ish N......


With a slight drift to the WSW at the moment. Thats not good, just means it will be further out in the gulf when the CDO finally develops.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#873 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:12 pm

ROCK wrote:now if we can get a good center fix....this data will be in the 0z runs tonight....

which should be about 91W 26.8- ish N......


That's where I was looking earlier
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#874 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:14 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 011900
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 17 20110901
185030 2545N 08944W 9590 00460 0102 +241 +224 190012 012 024 000 00
185100 2546N 08942W 9590 00459 0101 +239 +221 182014 015 024 000 00
185130 2546N 08940W 9590 00458 0101 +238 +221 184015 016 025 000 00
185200 2546N 08938W 9591 00457 0101 +238 +221 184015 016 024 000 00
185230 2546N 08936W 9590 00458 0101 +240 +219 181016 017 025 000 00
185300 2546N 08934W 9590 00459 0101 +240 +225 176017 017 025 000 00
185330 2547N 08932W 9591 00458 0102 +240 +226 178015 017 027 000 00
185400 2547N 08930W 9588 00462 0102 +238 +229 174016 017 030 001 00
185430 2547N 08927W 9592 00457 0101 +238 +225 177018 019 030 000 00
185500 2547N 08925W 9591 00459 0101 +237 +226 183021 022 030 000 00
185530 2547N 08923W 9592 00455 0099 +239 +225 190020 021 033 001 00
185600 2547N 08921W 9591 00456 0099 +236 +230 190022 022 038 010 00
185630 2547N 08919W 9591 00457 0101 +234 +234 193021 023 036 011 00
185700 2548N 08917W 9592 00457 0102 +232 +231 195024 024 039 011 00
185730 2548N 08915W 9590 00459 0102 +234 +232 186024 025 037 003 00
185800 2548N 08913W 9590 00459 0104 +234 +231 185023 025 035 004 00
185830 2548N 08911W 9595 00456 0104 +232 +232 192024 024 039 006 00
185900 2548N 08909W 9591 00459 0105 +232 +232 190026 027 040 006 00
185930 2548N 08907W 9591 00461 0107 +233 +232 187025 027 037 002 00
190000 2548N 08905W 9591 00465 0109 +239 +223 182027 030 038 001 00
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#875 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:16 pm

At least this doesn't show the worst case scenario of last nights 00z Euro where it went SW before undergoing RI and then slamming back into LA. This looks like it would be a big hinderance but nothing too severe, rainfall would be the biggest issue is my guess. Does it still stall for as long as before or is it moving out any quicker?
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#876 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:17 pm

000
URNT11 KWBC 011904
97779 19044 50259 88918 04600 17026 24236 /0011 41830 91090
RMK NOAA2 01HHA INVEST OB 05 KWBC

Image
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Re:

#877 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:17 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:So if they do decide to upgrade now...I guess watches/warnings would have to go up also at this time considering it is so close to land? What if the system just meanders around like some of the models imply, just perpetual watches/warnings for an entire week until he finally decides to make landfall?



with a system like this..my guess the NHC will provide 3 day cones?..possibly a wide swath of watches/warnings for an extended period to keep the coast aware... until they have a solution..?




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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#878 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:20 pm

Here is what I have for the location of the center..

26.55° N 91.67° W

It is now rotating around like I mentioned earlier it would without much reformation. it will then rotate east towards the convection and at which time it will become much more defined as the dynamics of the developing a circ in a fluid completes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#879 Postby Clint_TX » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Here is what I have for the location of the center..

26.55° N 91.67° W

It is now rotating around like I mentioned earlier it would without much reformation. it will then rotate east towards the convection and at which time it will become much more defined as the dynamics of the developing a circ in a fluid completes.



Looks like the shear is relaxing a bit over that lat/long...its possible it will take hold there
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#880 Postby Dave » Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:23 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 011910
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 18 20110901
190030 2548N 08902W 9591 00467 0112 +236 +216 180031 032 038 002 00
190100 2548N 08900W 9591 00468 0113 +235 +216 178027 028 037 005 00
190130 2548N 08858W 9593 00465 0112 +238 +215 180026 027 037 004 00
190200 2548N 08856W 9591 00468 0112 +240 +217 190026 027 038 005 00
190230 2549N 08854W 9591 00467 0112 +237 +222 195023 026 037 005 00
190300 2550N 08853W 9591 00473 0119 +231 +229 194023 028 /// /// 03
190330 2552N 08853W 9596 00463 0114 +237 +233 171023 024 039 005 00
190400 2553N 08855W 9592 00465 0110 +240 +228 170026 026 039 004 00
190430 2555N 08856W 9594 00464 0110 +239 +228 178026 027 039 002 00
190500 2556N 08858W 9592 00463 0109 +233 +234 176029 030 038 001 00
190530 2558N 08859W 9594 00460 0107 +236 +230 174029 031 038 000 00
190600 2559N 08900W 9592 00463 0109 +236 +228 175028 029 037 000 00
190630 2601N 08902W 9593 00463 0108 +238 +228 177028 029 038 001 00
190700 2602N 08904W 9593 00462 0108 +236 +229 180030 033 038 002 00
190730 2603N 08905W 9595 00459 0108 +233 +229 179033 034 044 007 00
190800 2605N 08907W 9586 00467 0108 +232 +233 184031 033 040 006 00
190830 2606N 08908W 9594 00459 0107 +234 +234 178026 033 039 004 00
190900 2608N 08910W 9595 00458 0105 +236 +233 181023 024 034 001 00
190930 2609N 08911W 9593 00458 0105 +238 +232 176022 024 034 005 00
191000 2610N 08913W 9593 00459 0104 +236 +235 177021 022 035 003 00
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