ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

Is it in the process of poofing?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And POOF it goes. Maybe in the next couple of days something might happen. Not until its near the Yucatan.

[expat2carib]

Yes. Popcorn it is.

[supercane]

Plot of 00Z tropical models:

[Aric Dunn]

yeah like and a few others mentioned before... its moving way way too fast ... look for any possible development in 3 to 4 days in the western/ nw carrib... if any at all

[Rgv20]

Interesting to note that some 12zECMWF Ensembles members are a tad further north and slower with 93L by day 7 represented by the light purple color on the right panel west of the Yucatan.

[Sanibel]

Damn, the Zone stripped that thing clean!

[HurricaneWarning92]

I gave up with this one on development. I dont think it will develop into more than a moderate TC, if at all. I wouldnt be surprised if it doesnt develop at all. Of course this is just my opinion.

[wxman57]

This was to be expected. Lots of dry air in the eastern Caribbean. I still give it about a 50% shot at becoming a TS on Friday. Less than 10% the next 2-3 days, though.

[Rgv20]

Looking at the forecast steering charts, 93L should start to slow down some when it approaches 80W and it should have about 36 to 48 hours of very favorable conditions before it arrives to the Yucatan.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Annnnnnd the Graveyard strikes again. I'm not ringing the death bell yet, nor am I calling Bones in though. Got a little ways to go yet.

[Florida1118]

Annnnnnd the Graveyard strikes again. I'm not ringing the death bell yet, nor am I calling Bones in though. Got a little ways to go yet.

It cannot sustain itself yet, so convection is going to diminish. Wait until DMAX

[cycloneye]

Latest ASCAT pass made around 10:00 PM EDT shows no surface circulation.

[One Eye]

Poof!! The dreaded SAL is at it again.

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM continues to be aggressive.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[SoupBone]

This was to be expected. Lots of dry air in the eastern Caribbean. I still give it about a 50% shot at becoming a TS on Friday. Less than 10% the next 2-3 days, though.

Wxman, Do storms that roll through these dry areas actually eliminate or lessen the dry air? Sounds like an elementary answer but to be honest I wasn't sure. Does the dry air act as a sponge?

[Adoquín]

I do not think it has to with SAL. Latest graphics show SAL is actually on the wane in front of it. As to dry air, it was much worse 2 days before. So granted the Eastern Caribbean is not great climatologically, but that cannot be the main culprit.

[cycloneye]

I do not think it has to with SAL. Latest graphics show SAL is actually on the wane in front of it. As to dry air, it was much worse 2 days before. So granted the Eastern Caribbean is not great climatologically, but that cannot be the main culprit.

Is moving way too fast and that may be one of the main factors.Let's see when the slowdown occurs if it takes advantage of the very warm waters in the Western Caribbean.

[tailgater]

Come on guys yall know it's gonna flare up again in the morning and probably die off again 24 hrs. from now.

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS does the CA thing again....given the poof tonight becoming more plausible....