ATL: IRENE - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Did I not see a recent TCHP outlook with the eastern Gulf able to sustain an 880mb 190mph hurricane if all the atmospheric conditions are perfect???????

[northjaxpro]

Nowhere to hide if this scenario verifies.

This model run image gives me the chills as the system goes directly up the spine of the FL peninsula.

[CrazyC83]

This looks like a Charley redux?

[CrazyC83]

The Gulf coast and Florida had better hope this system spends a lot of time over Hispaniola.

[Ivanhater]

This looks like a Charley redux?

Doubt it..none of the models have shown a trough picking it up..only causing a weakness in the ridge over the Eastern Gulf to lift it northward. Not to say it can't change though...

[Nikki]

The Gulf coast and Florida had better hope this system spends a lot of time over Hispaniola.

I agree with you and I hope everyone on the coast lines of the United States has their hurricane preps done and can be ready long before the storm threatens their area. I am not very far inland from Galveston, TX and although I know none of these storms are threatening my area, I am ready to go or ride one out...my thoughts and prayers are with everyone!

[CrazyC83]

The Gulf coast and Florida had better hope this system spends a lot of time over Hispaniola.

I agree with you and I hope everyone on the coast lines of the United States has their hurricane preps done and can be ready long before the storm threatens their area. I am not very far inland from Galveston, TX and although I know none of these storms are threatening my area, I am ready to go or ride one out...my thoughts and prayers are with everyone!

The sad thing is, such a scenario would likely lead to catastrophic loss of life in Hispaniola. This is a no-win situation if this develops.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro Ensemble still favors a central Gulf (majority) but there are some to the east of Florida.

[Ivanhater]

HPC gives a clue on where the NHC has it...off the western tip of Cuba in the SE Gulf

HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

IN THE TROPICS...WE ARE STILL MONITORING NEW OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL TRENDS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS
WITH AN EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS AGREED UPON BY
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD WITH THE MODELS STILL AGREEING THAT THE WAVE WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT REACHES CUBA AROUND DAY 6/THU. BASED ON THE LATEST
COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NHC THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE USED THEIR
COORDINATED POINTS.

[shaggy]

Think alot is still gonna change. The best track for 18Z appears to be too far south. 97L seems to be organizing at around 15N instead and that could lead to some changes to the modeling once a center forms and starts getting into the models.

Anyone know if they have a G-IV flight planned?

[gatorcane]

Ivan, look at the cold front in the HPC image, that could even induces a north or NNE movement, maybe that is what the GFS and Euro are showing every other run it seems.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Amazing how many posts on a system that hasn't even formed a center yet. I don't remember the name of the storm that models insisted would hit florida and it went poof. I just don't put much into the models this early. Maybe it will form and get torn up by hispanola. which would be not good for them. News and the weather channel is hyping possible Irene. The last Irene flooded alot of houses here in S. Fl. Hopefully no Irene this year.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, look at the cold front in the HPC image, that could even induces a north or NNE movement, maybe that is what the GFS and Euro are showing every other run it seems.

On all the models I have only seen a weakness develop as the upper trough moves by to the North, not a trough sweeping it out. Models could change though.

[gatorcane]

Yeah, now that it looks like we may have something consolidating, it will be very interesting to see what the next round of model runs show on 18Z...looks like it is consolidating considerably more north than the last few runs of the GFS showed. Could mean a track through Hispaniola instead of south of it on the next GFS run, more in line with the ECMWF.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I think its consolidating farther north like at around 15N... this may influence the track.. idk.

[Big O]

European ensemble mean at 240 is over or just to the west of New Orleans.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro Ensemble mean heavily favors a Central/Eastern Gulf threat

[Adoquín]

If it is forming an LLC near 15N, then it is NOT likely to go over central Hispaniola but east of that, of course, depending on the other variables staying the same. Is forward speed expected to slow down? (water maps in eastern caribbean show hotter water today around the Eastern Caribbean, which could impact the kaboom factor if it goes slow.)

[SoupBone]

Amazing how many posts on a system that hasn't even formed a center yet. I don't remember the name of the storm that models insisted would hit florida and it went poof. I just don't put much into the models this early. Maybe it will form and get torn up by hispanola. which would be not good for them. News and the weather channel is hyping possible Irene. The last Irene flooded alot of houses here in S. Fl. Hopefully no Irene this year.

This system is looking better and better as the day progresses and while poofing would be ideal, this one doesn't appear to be one that will do that.

[TwisterFanatic]

18z NAM - 84 Hours

A little too strong a little too fast, imo.