ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011081612, , BEST, 0, 138N, 654W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N63W 19N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 61W AND 69W...AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.

[tolakram]

MIMIC-TPW shows the symmetrical circulation of precipitable water, looking better now than in the last 3 days.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[cycloneye]

GCANE, low level convergence is increasing.

[latitude_20]

Yep, good alignment of LL convergence/UL divergence.

[SouthDadeFish]

Wow, convergence is impressive for the first time. Vorticity is pretty strong at 850, 700, and 500mb levels. As convection fires, the anticyclone should become better established over the circulation. It is leaving the graveyard and should start to slow down probably tomorrow. If it can hold the convection through its convergence today, we may see a circulation try and establish itself tomorrow. Just my opinion of course, after seeing TPW imagery, I'm starting to like 93L's chances more and more

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Discussion of 93L by Dr Jeff Masters:

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.

[tolakram]

93L just in range of the GOES EC, currently in semi-rapid mode.

LIVE LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[Aric Dunn]

The SSD floater is down off it again.. hmmmm actually the whole site went out of wack..lol... other than that... the mid level rotation is a bit better defined today.... still all easterly flow in the low levels. maybe a slight more curvature than yesterday. still no development till at least friday if at all..

[SouthDadeFish]

Btw recon is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[cycloneye]

Btw recon is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Todays TCPOD has not been released as of the time of this post,so until that comes,the mission for today is on. We will see shortly when the TCPOD comes out what it says.

[x-y-no]

Btw recon is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Ummm ... 16th is today ...

[SouthDadeFish]

Edit: Nvm I'm reading the dates wrong.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like 93L is paving the way for the big dogs!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rb.html

[SouthDadeFish]

Btw recon is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Ummm ... 16th is today ...

Sorry! I saw the 15th on the plan of the day and forgot it had not yet updated.

[cycloneye]

Todays TCPOD

Mission for today canceled.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 16 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 18/2015Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 18/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA FOR 16/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1300Z.

[SouthDadeFish]

Well I guess I was five minutes ahead of myself. Not surprising they cancelled today's mission.

[cycloneye]

Wait a second peeps, the remark says SE of Bermuda not S of PR.Hmmmm

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest visible:



There is a buoy at 15N and 67.5W that is showing ENE winds and a rising pressure. Nothing going on yet at the surface...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

[SouthDadeFish]

Wait a second peeps, the remark says SE of Bermuda not S of PR.Hmmmm

Probably just a typo.