ATL: IRENE - Models

[gatorcane]

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18z NAM - 84 Hours

A little too strong a little too fast, imo.

Wow its rare you see the NAM ramp up something to that extreme. That is super strong.

Good thing it is the NAM which is not a model we typically look at for tropical cyclone intensity forecasts

[PTrackerLA]

This looks like a Charley redux?

Doubt it..none of the models have shown a trough picking it up..only causing a weakness in the ridge over the Eastern Gulf to lift it northward. Not to say it can't change though...

Charley's trough was an extremely deep front for that time of the year. We had lows in the 50's in mid August! On second thought, where the hell is that trough?!

[Adoquín]

18z NAM - 84 Hours

A little too strong a little too fast, imo.

This is what I refer to as the kaboom factor. Happened with Marilyn....so although not amused by the prospect it is certaintly possible based on history alone...

[lonelymike]

Pensacola, another E shift.

Actually the center comes ashore near the Cape San Blas/Appalachicola area bout a 150 mile difference.

[micktooth]

12z Euro Ensemble mean heavily favors a Central/Eastern Gulf threat

Can you please explain these maps? To my amateur untrained eyes, they are showing relatively "weak" low pressure in the Central Gulf?

[gtalum]

Can you please explain these maps? To my amateur untrained eyes, they are showing relatively "weak" low pressure in the Central Gulf?

My understanding is that many models' intensity forecasts are often ignored because they are notoriously unreliable.

[Ivanhater]

It is not to be used for intensity. It is a blend of multiple model runs which skews the intensity on the mean map.

[Portastorm]

It is not to be used for intensity. It is a blend of multiple model runs which skews the intensity on the mean map.

Exactly! What you want to be doing is using the maps to give you a general idea of placement of the cyclone as well as depiction of the areas of high and low pressure.

[micktooth]

It is not to be used for intensity. It is a blend of multiple model runs which skews the intensity on the mean map.

Exactly! What you want to be doing is using the maps to give you a general idea of placement of the cyclone as well as depiction of the areas of high and low pressure.

Thanks you all are the best!!!

[lonelymike]

Way too early to get too concerned about a 7-10 day track. Somewhere between Texas and the Carolinas according to the GFS in recent runs. Euro spread is from SE LA to the Carolinas. Canadian is now trending farther west, west of the FL Peninsula on the 12Z run. I don't think it'll be a TS when it enters the eastern Caribbean early Sunday morning (less than 36 hours from now). Maybe a 50% shot at a TS by Sunday afternoon. If it's slower to develop, then you'll see the global models trend farther west of the FL Peninsula with time. I'd still like to see some evidence that it's actually starting to get better organized before I have much confidence in a track beyond 2-3 days.

Sometimes it wise to repost what the professional met has to say

[fci]

Way too early to get too concerned about a 7-10 day track. Somewhere between Texas and the Carolinas according to the GFS in recent runs. Euro spread is from SE LA to the Carolinas. Canadian is now trending farther west, west of the FL Peninsula on the 12Z run. I don't think it'll be a TS when it enters the eastern Caribbean early Sunday morning (less than 36 hours from now). Maybe a 50% shot at a TS by Sunday afternoon. If it's slower to develop, then you'll see the global models trend farther west of the FL Peninsula with time. I'd still like to see some evidence that it's actually starting to get better organized before I have much confidence in a track beyond 2-3 days.

Sometimes it wise to repost what the professional met has to say

EXACTLY RIGHT

This one has the attention of all since the models seem to have the future Irene making landfall somewhere in the CONUS be it NC, FL or the GOM.

REAL good to follow the Pro mets rather than the suppositions of many of us who are more "guessing" than anything else.
Thanks Mike, you're pretty smart for a Nole!!! (Go Gators!!) LOL

[Tireman4]

Way too early to get too concerned about a 7-10 day track. Somewhere between Texas and the Carolinas according to the GFS in recent runs. Euro spread is from SE LA to the Carolinas. Canadian is now trending farther west, west of the FL Peninsula on the 12Z run. I don't think it'll be a TS when it enters the eastern Caribbean early Sunday morning (less than 36 hours from now). Maybe a 50% shot at a TS by Sunday afternoon. If it's slower to develop, then you'll see the global models trend farther west of the FL Peninsula with time. I'd still like to see some evidence that it's actually starting to get better organized before I have much confidence in a track beyond 2-3 days.

Sometimes it wise to repost what the professional met has to say

Thank you again Wxman 57. Clarity.

[bamajammer4eva]

Way too early to get too concerned about a 7-10 day track. Somewhere between Texas and the Carolinas according to the GFS in recent runs. Euro spread is from SE LA to the Carolinas. Canadian is now trending farther west, west of the FL Peninsula on the 12Z run. I don't think it'll be a TS when it enters the eastern Caribbean early Sunday morning (less than 36 hours from now). Maybe a 50% shot at a TS by Sunday afternoon. If it's slower to develop, then you'll see the global models trend farther west of the FL Peninsula with time. I'd still like to see some evidence that it's actually starting to get better organized before I have much confidence in a track beyond 2-3 days.

Sometimes it wise to repost what the professional met has to say

EXACTLY RIGHT

This one has the attention of all since the models seem to have the future Irene making landfall somewhere in the CONUS be it NC, FL or the GOM.

REAL good to follow the Pro mets rather than the suppositions of many of us who are more "guessing" than anything else.
Thanks Mike, you're pretty smart for a Nole!!! (Go Gators!!) LOL

Or Jose or KATia lol

[lonelymike]

Thanks FCI....FSU has one of the best met schools in the nation

Just reposted so people hopefully keep perspective on that something is 7-9 days away and be aware and be prepared.

Appreciate Ivan and Rock and all the others who post the model runs just seems as sometimes the herd panic takes over.

[MGC]

I would not be surprised if 97L takes a path similar to Fredric in 1979.....Across the Greater Antillies to the western tip of Cuba...one it hits the GOM it explodes into a strong Cat-3 and makes landfall along the central gulf coast....MGC

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS Rolling

18 hours...could be Jose not Irene

[KWT]

The only good news from the ECM is that it takes the track that will prevent a huge amount of strengthening...

The pattern is easily condusive for a major looking at the models BUT the islands could well stunt that strengthening.

ECM probably suggests a 65-70kts hurricane into S.Florida...bad but probably 30-40kts weaker then if it shot up about 100 miles west.

[baygirl_1]

I would not be surprised if 97L takes a path similar to Fredric in 1979.....Across the Greater Antillies to the western tip of Cuba...one it hits the GOM it explodes into a strong Cat-3 and makes landfall along the central gulf coast....MGC

Coming out of lurking to say please don't mention the F word around here! We have a wedding coming up with a reception planned at a yacht club on Mobile Bay in a couple weeks. We can't have any hurricanes messing that up! Seriously, this one certainly has our attention. In fact, the Mobile NWS office has been mentioning it in the forecast discussion: " WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS VARIOUS MODELS DO HAVE THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EITHER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OR CARIBBEAN SEA LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE." Thanks so much everyone for the great information!

[wxman57]

You might keep an eye on the ECMWF ensemble runs vs. the operational. The ensemble runs take the storm into the central Gulf Coast vs. Florida:

[Ivanhater]

I posted that a couple pages back Wxman. They do often hint at what future operational runs will show.